Our new paper (w/ @ProfOnderco) has just been published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution! We report the findings of our 2021 survey experiment in Russia, where we investigated [...] 1/n
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00… @IPS_FSV_CUNI @prcprague @FSV_UK @eliss_lab
Russian public support for nuclear weapon use in the hypothetical conflict with NATO in the Baltics. Among other things, we examined the differences in support for a nuclear strike against NATO military base and a corresponding conventional strike option; [...]
[...]support for a demonstrative nuclear explosion and a direct strike against a military target; 3/n
[...] the role of moral values in nuclear (non-)use decisions; #moralfoundationstheory #MFT 4/n
[...] and the relative importance of different concerns in Russian citizens' decision-making. 5/n

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More from @MichalSmetana3

Mar 26
1/ 🧵 ke včerejšímu prohlášení generálního štábu ruské armády, které ukazuje, jak chce Rusko v příštích týdnech pravděpodobně na Ukrajině postupovat a co se pokusí později nabídnout ruské veřejnosti jako „úspěšnou vojenskou operaci.“
eng.mil.ru/en/special_ope…
2/ Ruské politické vedení už nyní zjevně akceptovalo fakt, že vojenskou silou nebude schopno dosáhnout ani dobytí Kyjeva, kapitulace ukrajinských sil a změny režimu na Ukrajině, ani některých dílčích cílů na jihu země (dobytí Mykolajiva a Oděsy) /mapa @TheStudyofWar/
3/ Rusko tak přichází s (nepravdivým, nicméně pro ruskou veřejnost pravděpodobně přesvědčivým) tvrzením, že hlavním politickým cílem bylo od počátku a) osvobození Donbasu a k tomu b) „demilitarizace“ a „denacifikace“ ve zbytku Ukrajiny.
Read 16 tweets
Feb 26
🧵 A quick summary based on the assessment of military analysts who previously provided some very accurate predictions concerning the Russian invasion (e.g., @KofmanMichael, @DAlperovitch, @RALee85 …). On the plus side: 1. Russians have been overconfident in many aspects [...]
of the invasion (overconfidence is a common bias in international relations in general and matters of war in particular) and the results so far are worse than probably expected; 2. Russians have not (yet) achieved air superiority over Ukraine, something they probably [...]
...expected to achieve by this point; 3. The use of electronic warfare appears somewhat muted (hard to say why); 4. Russians appeared to be improvising and engaged in some very risky and sometimes indeed puzzling operations that did not pay off (e.g., some of the airborne [...]
Read 9 tweets

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