Eli Tyre Profile picture
Aug 10 14 tweets 5 min read
Why do we typically measure economic well-being with GDP, rather than national wealth?

It seems like GDP has a number of crucial problems which cause it to measure something other than what we intuitively care about.
1. GDP measures how much money changes hands, instead of how much value is created.

If a supply shock reduces the supply of a good by half, but drives up the price of the good by more than 2x, this is counted as a higher GDP than baseline, even though _less_ wealth was created.
Similarly, if a natural disaster destroys an area, and money is spent rebuilding, that is counted toward GDP.

Which is straightforward application of the broken window fallacy?!
2. GDP measures a flow, rather than a stock, which means it entirely neglects the robustness of capital goods.

If I buy a car for $10,000 and it lasts for 10 years, I (and my society) am wealthier by one car over those 10 years.
If I buy a car and it only lasts for 2 years, and then need to buy another one, I'm worse off.

But because the value of the car is only counted in the GDP in the year that I bought it, needing to buy another after two years contributes to GDP of that year.
And in general GPD is higher the more frequently I need to buy replacements for capital goods (while my wealth is greater the less frequently I need to buy capital goods).
As a consequence of not accounting for the broken window fallacy, GDP as a metric incentivizes making shittier stuff that doesn't last very long.
3. GDP fails to account for value that isn't bought with money: labor internal to a household, public goods, un-priced positive externalities, etc.

This category almost certainly comprises the majority of human well-being.
And on top of that, GDP includes transactions that don't obviously create value, and seem like they probably destroy it.

Like, the whole advertising sector, which at least doesn't contribute straightforwardly to production.
So what's up with this? It seems like it is more straightforward to just measure National Wealth, or the total capital assets of an economy.
And further, @HiFromMichaelV claims, here, that National Wealth is the measure that we used to use, before World War II?

@HiFromMichaelV Is that true?

If so, what's the standard economic reason why we switched?

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More from @EpistemicHope

Jul 30
I found this post (after having read the post to which this one is responding), quite compelling, in contrast so some other posts on related themes.

benjaminrosshoffman.com/parkinsons-law…
Specifically, @ben_r_hoffman says "Stealing the locals' land to plant trees and raise ponies is a totally bonkers response to the three summary facts enumerated."

I paused to think for a bit about what interventions I feel inclined to try, and I agree: these ones seems crazy.
@ben_r_hoffman They don't even have a clear connection to the facts that are laid out above!

Were these the main interventions selected, or were they a small side project, that are highlighted in the book or in the review, to make a point?

If these were the main interventions, then...why?
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An epistemic stance: knowing and emphasizing that people very often fool themselves, and that using hard data is one way (or the only way?) to keep yourself moored to reality.
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There's a claim of a problem: that the human experience is one of having confident beliefs that turn out, on further reflection, to be very weak evidence about what's actually true.
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If a person does well on test of working memory, you can infer that they'll do well on a test of verbal reasoning, etc.

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Does anyone know of completely safe drugs that make you sluggish and lethargic?

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My BATNA options are 1) eat a huge amount of carbs and 2) sleep deprivation, but maybe there are better options?
I know very little about drugs. Maybe marijuana does this?
Read 5 tweets
May 29
The point of morality is not to assert the ways that you are Good compared to others.

The point of morality is to notice the ways that you are not good enough, by your own standards, so you can change to be better.
The only actuator of your morality is you and your own actions.

Your tagging other people's actions as bad or evil is largely epiphenomenal, compared to tagging your own.

If your morality doesn't make YOU more moral than you would otherwise be, it's not helping.
Morality is working when you hear of something bad that someone did, and your thought is "when do I do something analogous to that? Should I do something different instead?"
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I would like to get a hard drive or a collection of hard drives that has saved copies of Libgen and Wikipedia, both organized in some sensible, searchable-at-all way.
It seems like this should be doable. All of libgen is only about 33 Terabytes and all of wikipedia is only about 20 Gigabytes.
Is there a service where I can just order hard drives with arbitrary data from the internet? Do I have friends that would be interested in doing this for money?
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