Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EconTwitter

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Super fio sobre orientações acadêmicas, como fazer uma monografia, dissertação ou tese supimpa e como lidar com orientadores ruins. Repassem, comentem e me digam o que vcs acham que falta pq eu posso escrever mais sobre o assunto. É um resumo mas adicionei algumas coisas (1/90)
Escrevi os fios, agora integrados, pq eu sei que poderia ter feito uma tese diferente e melhor. As primeiras dicas divido as dicas em 1) longo prazo; 2) autonomia; 2.1) síndrome do impostor; 3) resiliência; 4) (in)deferência; 5) metodologia; 6) gestão de processos. (2/90)
Longo prazo: o que você quer ser qd crescer? De outra forma, o q vc quer DEPOIS do stricto sensu? Dar aulas? Não dar aulas (fazer só pesquisa)? Ir pra indústria? Ser móvel? Virar bicho do mato? Dialogar com o Brasil e/ou com o mundo? As respostas são fundamentais, pois: (3/90)
Read 92 tweets
Spatial inequality is concerning, but we don't yet fully understand all forces that contribute to it. In this new paper (with @pa_balland et al), we find that spatial concentration is larger for complex economic activities. (thread) nature.com/articles/s4156… #EconTwitter
We use four datasets summarizing publications, patents, and employment by industries and occupations for US Metro Areas. Not surprisingly, economic activities in these four datasets clusters in cities.
We can measure this concentration using scaling laws, like the ones described by @BettencourtLuis in (pnas.org/content/104/17…). In agreement with previous findings, we find that large cities have more patents, employment, and publications (per capita!), than smaller cities.
Read 12 tweets
Here, #econtwitter, is a photo (replete with San Diego Marriott poolside lounge chair backdrop) of the AEA budget for FY 2020. I picked it up at the sparsely attended business meeting at #ASSA2020.

Although printed in black, there's some serious red ink. Let's explore.
The AEA operating budget was in the black five years ago. This year, they expect to spend $1.23 for every $1 in operating revenue. What gives?

Revenues (+7% in nominal terms 2015-2020) are not keeping up with expenses (+35.5%).
You know how the AEA is actually doing important stuff, like the RCT registry, @LetoC's ombuds office, workshops, and so forth?

"Program and activity" expenses are up 85% over five years. The association is dipping into its bank account to pay for them.
Read 9 tweets
I keep my DMs open, but others probably shouldn’t. It’s embarrassing a little bit to explain why I do this bc maybe a reader would think I’m lying. But my hero is mister rogers, and I am trying to be like him going forward as I understand him. And that’s why I keep DMs open. 1/n
I want to live my life where my full attention is giving to the person I’m with, because I believe each person is cracking with beauty and importance that I would be a fool to skip that moment. Why would I deprive myself of wonder and astonishment? 2/n
So those are my core beliefs. Whether you live consistently with your core beliefs is different from having them, so I’m just saying I have them and that I want my life to be a lived experience of community and oneness with real people. 3/n
Read 23 tweets
Finally caught up with the wealth tax literature. A great starting point is this recent @voxeu column by @Marius_Brulhart @jonathangruber1 @MatthiasKrapf @unibas_metrics.

Trying to contribute to the public good that is #econtwitter, a short thread. 1/10

voxeu.org/article/wealth…
Column is based on their recently updated working paper in which they exploit wealth tax reforms in Switzerland (OECD country with highest share of wealth tax revenue) to estimate semi-elasticity of taxable wealth. 2/10

Ungated version: hec.unil.ch/mbrulhar/paper…
Using a variety of subnational wealth tax changes, they estimate that a 1 p.p. drop in wealth tax rate raises reported wealth by 43%! Authors do offer a story why their semi-elasticity is higher than other estimates in literature, which I will come back to in a minute. 3/10
Read 12 tweets
Um fio para alunos de mestrado e doutorado. Algumas dicas de alguém que sabe que poderia ter feito diferente e melhor. Divido as dicas em 1) longo prazo; 2) autonomia; 2.1) síndrome do impostor; 3) resiliência; 4) (in)deferência; 5) metodologia; 6) gestão de processos. (1/n)
Longo prazo: o que você quer ser qd crescer? De outra forma, o q vc quer DEPOIS do stricto sensu? Dar aulas? Não dar aulas (fazer só pesquisa)? Ir pra indústria? Ser móvel? Virar bicho do mato? Dialogar com o Brasil e/ou com o mundo? As respostas são fundamentais, pois: (2/n)
Elas que vão determinar se vc deve se aprofundar numa língua estrangeira (inclusive escrevendo a tese em outra língua), buscar um doutorado-sanduíche, e até se auto-promover no twitter (em economia há o #econtwitter para networking). Exemplo: (3/n)
Read 30 tweets
Starting 2020 off right by getting the benefit of hindsight & reading some classic papers.

#epielliereads
1st up, Take the Con out of Econometrics by Edward Leamer, 1983: all about pros & cons of randomized & observational studies plus answers to many of recurrent #econtwitter, #statstwitter, & #epitwitter arguments & even why #ML can’t do causal inference!
jstor.org/stable/1803924
In Part I randomized experiments vs natural experiments, aka observational studies, Leamer provides a nice summary of some of the problems that can arise in RCTs including that randomization guarantees validity *on average* but that chance imbalance can make any given RCT biased
Read 13 tweets
I couldn't agree more with @GerardAraud on this point!

I sense that the 2020's will have more in common with the 1890s and 1900s than with the 1980s or 1990s

[THREAD]
I raise this point at the end of the introduction to my new book, "Arguing About Alliances" (@CornellPress)
I then explain how the two time periods are similar: in a word, "Multipolarity"
Read 9 tweets
Hey #EconTwitter! As some of you know, my family is in the wine importing and sales business. (Quigley Fine Wines - @Quigleywines).

They are opening a beautiful Tasting Room in San Diego! The *very same* San Diego where #ASSA2020 will be held! Soft opening will be DURING ASSA!
We'd love to have #EconTwitter help us open it up!

The DEAL: Drop by 4-7pm FRI-SUN (1/3-1/5) of #ASSA2020 with your name tag from the conference. Do the tasting & you'll get a free glass of your fav. wine from the flight.

Perfect pre-dinner activity.

google.com/maps/place/Qui…
BONUS- Tell the person serving you that know me, and you might get an embarrassing story about me.

You might also get to meet my parents, who, incidentally, are *delightful* people.

No matter what, you'll get to try some really good wine and probably learn something.
Read 7 tweets
A thread about the Lost Decade in Brazil, only with numbers. Truly the culmination of the worst brought by the Labors Party (PT), MDB, and semi-fascist PSL. We start with GDP per person. It was, in today's money, R$31,614. Now? (1/n)
.
.
.
.
/spoiler end/
R$31,836 (0,07% yoy)
We are comparing start 2010 with 2019. People are literally as rich today as before. Maybe employment data are better? Hell no, unemployment started 2010 at 8.1% and ended 2019 at 11.2%. No more money and lower employment. Maybe inequality got better? (2/n)
Nope. Inequality is as bad as ever. Gini has changed very little, if at all, if we compare early 2010 with late 2010s. The Human Development Index did improve a tiny bit. So Brasil is the best definition of a decrepit economy. (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
Ranking 2019 (In Spanish) | Hilo sobre los 5 mejores artículos divulgativos de economía (de 3 mujeres y 2 hombres) que he leído este 2019 (#estoessubjetivo).

Todos muy interesantes y de los que se puede aprender muchas cosas #econtwitter #economics #economía #divulgacion [1/n]
Nº5. "Paul Volcker, nueve décadas contra la inflación", escrito por @MartaDomnguezJ1 en @Letras_Libres

Excelente resumen de la vida de Paul Volcker, que falleció este año. Si diera clase de macro, sería un texto obligatorio para su lectura. [2/n]

letraslibres.com/espana-mexico/…
@MartaDomnguezJ1 @Letras_Libres Nº 4. "Anatomía de la economía: de los flujos circulares a las matrices de contabilidad social", de Pablo Cervera Ferri y @JavierFerri1 en @nadaesgratis

Un viaje a través de casi 400 años de historia (no sólo económica). [3/n]

nadaesgratis.es/admin/anatomia…
Read 6 tweets
Esther Duflo and I have two dramatically different conceptions of the task of economics. Duflo wants to make the world a better place. I do not believe I have this ability. In fact, expert biases also exist and can be more detrimental to human welfare...1/n #econtwitter
Expert failures are incredibly damaging to human welfare and can occur because experts fail to see what subjectively matters to people on the ground (see Koppl - amazon.com/Failure-Cambri… and @bill_easterly
amazon.com/Tyranny-Expert…) 2/n
Moreover, I work with creating data every day (historical mostly) and creating definitional consistency while also determining range of confidence in numbers. Just in the measurement (and standardization of income), there are wide uncertainties.
Read 5 tweets
#EconTwitter rankings are not the end all be all ...

even so, thrilled to see how much more women economists are being followed on here ... smart move!

ideas.repec.org/top/top.person…
here is my thread from July ... with women in the top 200 rankings: moving on up ... much improved since the summer
one update near and dear to my heart ... Paulina Volcker says 😘 @gregmankiwblog
Read 13 tweets
TWEETORIAL: In honor of @zackcooperYale pointing out some COI’s & biases in @ACEPAdvocacy past presidents, it’s only fair we extend the courtesy to Healthcare economists & the media
1/ we already know @LorenAdler works for Schaeffer Center for Health Policy & Economics, started by former Wellpoint CEO. Won’t even mention Wellpoint Owner Anthem made $5 billion in Net income (5x more than Envision owner KKR, BTW)
2/ and that @zackcooperYale ‘s paper on BB received grants from @NIHCMfoundation , whose foundation is funded by health insurance companies (here’s a link to their HI exec board) nihcm.org/about-us/board…
Read 19 tweets
I'd like to start by explaining my reasoning behind this tweet: #EconTwitter #orgdesign #startups
Why both labor-managed and owned (LMNO)?

Some platforms are partially owned by an Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs), but controlled by a few investors and founders.

Google gave co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin shares with 10x voting rights vs ordinary shareholders.
Despite being labor-managed, non-profits like Wikipedia are not owned allowed to be owned by any individuals.

There are platform cooperatives (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platform_…), but none are significant platforms in their industries.
Read 21 tweets
I'm going to start tweeting.

Deleted my previous account after rediscovering some embarrassing brexit tweets; created this one to focus primarily on a subject I've been studying for the past couple years, Organizational Design for Innovation.
My past employers mostly kept information hidden, leading to bad decisions and distrust. I used to think that was the only way until I read @RayDalio's Principles and saw a great company built on modern assumptions like Radical Truth and Radical Transparency. I became curious.
So, I started asking around my local startup community about innovating an organizational model and was repeatedly advised to "build a product, worry about the business stuff later." Parroted generic advice sometimes indicates an oversight, so I left to look for an answer.
Read 11 tweets
(1/10) The White House and congressional Republicans claim that personal income growth has nearly doubled under Trump. As usual, they are fudging the numbers. #FactsMatter
(2/10) To start, @WhiteHouseCEA looks at growth over the prior year. So when it starts counting from inauguration, Trump’s numbers include gains from before his time in office. In effect, Republicans are taking credit for some of Obama’s achievements.
(3/10) Further, the focus on average growth is a misleading way to measure middle-class income, considering the wealthy skew data higher. We should focus on median income, which looks at Americans in the middle of the income distribution—“typical” households. This is Econ 101.
Read 10 tweets
#EconTwitter Recently there’s been an explosion of empirical applications of Difference in Difference estimation in economics. Unfortunately, DiD is often *less* credible than structural models. Why? Choice of covariates and functional form in DiD is more ad hoc, because... 1/3
1. We can’t know what conditioning variables (if any exist) are needed to satisfy parallel trends, 2. Some conditioning variables are likely to be colliders or otherwise endogenous, and 3. Additive linearity in covariates is almost certainly a misspecified functional form... 2/3
Comparable problems exist for structural models, but there economic theory can provide some guidance regarding covariates, endogeneity, and functional form. For DiD it’s generally little more than just hand-waving and robustness checks. 3/3.
Read 3 tweets
This thread is Part 2 of my #EconTwitter tweetorial on how to create effective figures 📈📉📊 in @Stata. Today: designing effective Legends and Labels.

Part 1 on choosing & customizing Defaults started here.

<begin thread>
Custom legends are an enormous opportunity to make your figures more effective:

- Readers can't interpret your figure without understanding the legend
- The default legend is rarely the easiest to understand

You can improve a legend by adjusting the location🎯 and colors🎨 2/11
Remember the main goal for a figure: get your message across with a minimum amount of effort from the reader.

With a default legend—at the bottom or the side—readers glance at the plot, realize they don't understand, then seek out the legend.

Which requires less effort? 👇🏼 3/11
Read 11 tweets
Figures 📈📉📊 are the most important tool for communicating results in a slide deck, and one of the key tools in a paper.

Here's a tweetorial for #EconTwitter on how to create effective figures in @Stata. Illustrated with examples from my JMP. <thread>

michaelstepner.com/jmp/
Creating effective figures takes only two steps!!

1. Pick good defaults
2. Question all the defaults😅

The question to ask yourself: How do I get my message across, with a minimum amount of effort from the reader?

The 💻 knows your data, but it doesn't know your message. 2/11
This tweetorial is a series of examples of the graph parameters that I find especially useful to customize.

Today I'll tweet about (1) Defaults. I'll continue this week with threads about: (2) Legends & Labels. (3) Axes. (4) Color. (5) Titles. 3/11
Read 12 tweets
There's been a lot of discussion on #EconTwitter lately about the trials of graduate school. My sense is that it sounds like a pretty depressing story. But there may be a bit of selection bias at play--misery loves company--so lemme add another perspective.
My four years in graduate school were among the most amazing of my life. They were transformative in every sense of the word. I grew from a young econ-curious caterpillar into a real economist butterfly, ready to spread my wings.
I loved exploring and discovering my intellectual passions. Along the way I discovered beauty in social science as I grappled with the extraordinary insights of earlier generations.

I treasured the chance to learn from my intellectual heroes, and learn my craft from them.
Read 6 tweets
On econ PhD & how hard it is, & #EconTwitter. I've debated whether to post this because I respect & honor others' feelings & experiences. But I think there's a fine line between authentically sharing difficult experiences, and creating an echo chamber of competitive misery. 1/N
I do think we need to be authentic and real about the challenges. But I think it's bullshit to say or imply that you can't do an econ PhD without not only x, y, and z math and having already taken the econ PhD core, and being superhuman in ability to suffer. Not true. 2/N
It's harder to get into "top" econ PhD programs, and those programs do have high math requirements as well a hard first-year curriculum. Perhaps unreasonably high/hard. But do we have to play along with that? 3/N
Read 10 tweets
Im going to share a controversial opinion. But I’m doing it on #EconTwitter bc I want undergrads and first year PhD students to have the option to hear dissenting opinions. But here’s my belief - if you want to make it past first year prelims, you can’t believe you have options.
What I mean is, the first year is so freaking hard, and the failure rate on prelims so high, that if you think you have outside options, there’s a real risk you won’t put in ungodly amounts of time and work to learn the material. And I know this contributes to mental health stuff
I realize in saying this that the extreme pressure of first year can be demoralizing and so hard you even struggle with depression. And if I knew of another way, I’d say it, but it’s important you first and foremost live in reality. Living in reality is rule one.
Read 10 tweets
Hi #EconTwitter! I’m a PhD candidate at Harvard @Kennedy_School on the market. Here's my JMP:

No⏰?🇵🇰Politicians know little about what citizens prefer. Better information makes them more responsive, especially towards women.

Lots of⏰? bit.ly/2KyR7vt

Some⏰? See⬇️
BIG Q for development = What affects public good provision?

We have excellent evidence on many determinants: corruption, red tape, uninformed voters + others

I explore a new one: info gaps on the politician's side

Q: Do politicians know enough about citizens to represent them?
📢I first establish that politicians have highly inaccurate beliefs about what citizens prefer: they are only marginally more accurate than a random guesser.

Strikingly: they are not more accurate about men’s preferences compared to women's (who they engage less with)
Read 20 tweets

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