What can we learn about climate politics from the (long overdue) passage of the Inflation Reduction Act?
Two things:
1. Economists were wrong 2. Political scientists were right
A 🧵
Economists have long urged governments to adopt carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems as a 'first best' policy. The idea of carbon pricing has dominated debates about climate policy -- in the US and globally -- for 3 decades.
But a small group of (mostly) political scientists pushed back. They have made 3 arguments.
1. Climate politics is not about "getting prices right" or "optimizing policies." It's a distributive conflict between the allies of #fossilfuels and the backers of green energy.
2. Carbon pricing is politically unpopular and often fails. Prophetic studies include Jenkins (2014), "Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies," in Energy Policy @JesseJenkinssciencedirect.com/science/articl…
And Green (2021), "Does carbon pricing reduce emissions? A review of ex-post analyses" in Environmental Research Letters iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
3. Climate policies should instead be reframed as green industrial policy, not "saving the planet" or "getting prices right." Use carrots, not sticks.
And Dani Rodrik (2014), "Green Industrial Policy" in Oxford Review of Economic Policy (a dissident economist!) academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-…
After decades of clamor from economists about carbon pricing, these scholars quietly built the intellectual foundation for this landmark bill and deserve recognition!
None of these studies were published in top political science journals 🧐 and many were overlooked when first published
My list is radically incomplete! Many others have developed these arguments, too -- please add your favorites in the replies.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
TDLR: political leaders have surprisingly little impact on fossil fuel taxes & subsidies
So what? Why does it matter? 🧵
Background: presidents & prime ministers often make big climate pledges. Yet they often accomplish little. We wanted to find out what kinds of leaders had the most success – not only adopting energy reforms but making them stick.
We focused on taxes & subsidies for fossil fuels.
Policy wonks tell govts to make fossil fuels more expensive by removing subsidies & raising carbon taxes. But it’s politically hard for govts to pull off.
I just finished @mmildenberger's new book, Carbon Captured. It is one of the best social science books on climate politics I’ve ever read. Here are my 6 favorite things about it. 1/9
1. It takes on the most important question on the planet: why have governments done so little to reduce carbon emissions? 2/9
Most familiar answers – like collective action, cognitive biases, failure to appreciate the gravity of climate change – are incomplete. Among other things they don’t model the disproportionate (and malignant) role of the fossil fuel industry. 3/9
My paper “What do we know about export diversification in oil-producing countries?” is just out in Extractive Industries and Society. I know the topic sounds obscure, but it’s critical for global climate politics & development. Here’s why.