Michael Ross Profile picture
Aug 11, 2022 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
What can we learn about climate politics from the (long overdue) passage of the Inflation Reduction Act?

Two things:

1. Economists were wrong
2. Political scientists were right

A 🧵
Economists have long urged governments to adopt carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems as a 'first best' policy. The idea of carbon pricing has dominated debates about climate policy -- in the US and globally -- for 3 decades.

econstatement.org
But a small group of (mostly) political scientists pushed back. They have made 3 arguments.

1. Climate politics is not about "getting prices right" or "optimizing policies." It's a distributive conflict between the allies of #fossilfuels and the backers of green energy. Image
Key studies include Breetz, Mildenberger, and Stokes (2018) "Political logics of clean energy transitions" in B&P @leahstokes @mmildenberger @HannaBreetz cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Aklin and Mildenberger (2020), "Prisoners of the wrong dilemma" @GepJournal @MichaelAklin direct.mit.edu/glep/article/2…
And Colgan, Green and Hale (2020), "Asset revaluation and the existential politics of climate change" @IntOrgJournal @JeffDColgan @greenprofgreen @thomasnhale cambridge.org/core/journals/…
2. Carbon pricing is politically unpopular and often fails. Prophetic studies include Jenkins (2014), "Political economy constraints on carbon pricing policies," in Energy Policy @JesseJenkins sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Cullenward and Victor's 2020 book, Making climate policy work @dcullenward wiley.com/en-us/Making+C…
And Green (2021), "Does carbon pricing reduce emissions? A review of ex-post analyses" in Environmental Research Letters iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
3. Climate policies should instead be reframed as green industrial policy, not "saving the planet" or "getting prices right." Use carrots, not sticks.

Meckling, Kelsey, Biber and Zysman (2015), "Winning coalitions for climate policy" @jonasmeckling science.org/doi/full/10.11…
And Dani Rodrik (2014), "Green Industrial Policy" in Oxford Review of Economic Policy (a dissident economist!) academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-…
After decades of clamor from economists about carbon pricing, these scholars quietly built the intellectual foundation for this landmark bill and deserve recognition!
None of these studies were published in top political science journals 🧐 and many were overlooked when first published
My list is radically incomplete! Many others have developed these arguments, too -- please add your favorites in the replies.

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More from @MichaelRoss7

Jan 17, 2023
New study on climate politics in @PNASNews with the awesome @paashamahdavi @chadhazlett @CesarBenAlvarez!

TDLR: political leaders have surprisingly little impact on fossil fuel taxes & subsidies

So what? Why does it matter? 🧵
Background: presidents & prime ministers often make big climate pledges. Yet they often accomplish little. We wanted to find out what kinds of leaders had the most success – not only adopting energy reforms but making them stick.
We focused on taxes & subsidies for fossil fuels.

Policy wonks tell govts to make fossil fuels more expensive by removing subsidies & raising carbon taxes. But it’s politically hard for govts to pull off.

When they try it can lead to this:
Read 15 tweets
Aug 25, 2022
Wonderful @nytimes piece shows how economists failed to understand the politics of climate policy.

But it's just half the story. Why not also mention the scholars who got it right, mostly in political science?

A 🧵(& h/t @thomasnhale)
Carbon pricing might be "optimal" in an imaginary first-best world. But lots of recent evidence they don't make good public policy.

Some recent book-length studies make this point, most thoroughly in @dcullenward and Victor's brilliant book wiley.com/en-us/Making+C…
Read 9 tweets
Aug 10, 2020
I just finished @mmildenberger's new book, Carbon Captured. It is one of the best social science books on climate politics I’ve ever read. Here are my 6 favorite things about it. 1/9
1. It takes on the most important question on the planet: why have governments done so little to reduce carbon emissions? 2/9
Most familiar answers – like collective action, cognitive biases, failure to appreciate the gravity of climate change – are incomplete. Among other things they don’t model the disproportionate (and malignant) role of the fossil fuel industry. 3/9
Read 10 tweets
Aug 14, 2019
My paper “What do we know about export diversification in oil-producing countries?” is just out in Extractive Industries and Society. I know the topic sounds obscure, but it’s critical for global climate politics & development. Here’s why.

Thread
By the way: here's an ungated copy. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Two reasons this matters.
Read 18 tweets

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