In the Kharkiv area, Russia has increased shelling. Tsyrkuny has been shelled nonstop for the past few days. Yesterday, Russia assaulted Udy (1) and Petrivka (2), but both failed.
Yesterday, southwest of Kharkiv, Russia also assaulted Husarivka (3), which similarly failed.
Civilians north of Izyum claim they hear fighting getting closer and closer to their town, which they find exciting as they long to be liberated. Ukraine may have captured Sulyhivka and Dovhenke, but I will not update my map without proof.
Yesterday, Russia attacked Velyka Komyshuvakha (4), but the attack failed.
In the Siversk area, Russia has restarted its offensive Siversk, although most of their forces have shifted south towards Bakhmut, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Russian attacks on Hryhorivka (5) have all failed.
Russia managed to gain a foothold on the outskirts of Verkhnokamyanske for the first time, but their assaults on the town failed (6). Yesterday, Russia attacked Spirne (7), and today they attacked Ivano-Darivka (8). I have not seen evidence of success in either location.
In the Bakhmut area, Russia is continuously assaulting Yakovlivka (9), Soledar (10), and Bakhmutske (11). They have no tangible success in Yakovlivka or Bakhmutske.
In Soledar, I had Ukrainian confirmation that Russia had captured several buildings and streets, but that source was wrong, and I have corrected my map.
In Bakhmut (12), Russian propaganda has been claiming all sorts of victories and captures, but the reality is that Russia has not made progress in several days. They appear to have demolished a Ukrainian position near the front line today, though, and the explosion was large.
South of Bakhmut, Russia is still assaulting Vesela Dolyna (13), Zaitseve (14), and Vershyna (15). I have seen multiple confirmations of Russia capturing Vershyna, only to see the status return to 'contested.' Russia has progressed to the outskirts of Zaitseve,
where they heroically captured a storm drain and then posted hundreds of videos about it on telegram. I assume the fighting in Vesela Dolyna is still around the power substation.
Even further south of Bakhmut, there is heavy ongoing fighting near Kodema (16), and for the past two days, Russia has been assaulting Dacha (17). The attacks on Dacha surprised some people who didn't know Russia had captured Hladosove nearly a week ago.
In the Donetsk area, there is ongoing fighting in Krasnohorivka (18) and Avdiivka (19,20) without much change.
Before I move on, I want to point out that last night a large ammonia storage tank exploded in Donetsk (28). Presumably as a result of Ukrainian artillery fire. This explosion caused a significant hazard for the city.
In Pisky (21), Russia resorted to firing TOS-1 thermobaric weapons into the town to destroy Ukrainian positions. TOS-1 is a short-range multiple rocket launch system that fires thermobaric weapons designed to destroy buildings and fortifications.
Beyond Pisky, Ukraine is preparing its defensive positions in Pervomaiske and Vodyane. These positions are many years old and well developed at this point.
Russia also assaulted Marinka without notable success (22).
South of Donetsk, Russia attacked Pavlivka but was repelled (23). There were some rumors of Ukraine mounting an attack south from Mykilske, but I could not find any verifiable information on that attack.
As for the Kherson area, I have updated the line of control based on reports from @NLwartracker.
Along the Inhulets River, yesterday, Russia attacked Lozove without success (24).
Tonight, Ukraine fired rockets, presumably HIMARS, into Vesele and Nova Kakhovka (25). They probably target an ammo depot in Vesele and the bridge across the hydroelectric dam in Nova Kakhovka.
Ukraine also managed to kill a command center in Novokamyanka (26).
Today, there were unexplained explosions in Berdyansk near an old Ukrainian military base (27).
Today, Russia threatened to attack two towns near Zaporizhzhia, which I have marked as purple exclamation points.
Finally, Russia fired four salvos of artillery around the Enerhodar today, some of which landed close to the nuclear power plant.
I want to start by saying I don’t have access to official documents or meetings, so I’m piecing together their motivations based on what I observe and logical reasoning. Keep that in mind as you read on.
This year, Russia's goals are threefold. First, to capture the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Second, to capture Kostyantynivka. Third, to capture Slovyansk.
Each of these goals has necessary steps. To capture the bank in Zaporizhzhia, you must first capture Orikhiv. To capture Slovyansk, you must first capture Lyman. You could argue that to capture Kostyantynivka, you must first capture Chasiv Yar.
These goals are very ambitious and, honestly, impossible to fully achieve. So let’s think of them as aspirations and focus instead on how close Russia might get to reaching them.
Ukraine launched several counterattacks in the Verbove and Ternove areas of Zaporizhzhia. They were quite successful, pushing Russia out of several settlements and possibly capturing some. This also threatened Russia’s main supply route to the west. Because of this, Russia has to do two things: divert resources from their main attack to stabilize the area and try to recapture this ground to keep pushing west toward Orikhiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine gains time to strengthen defenses, plan their strategy, and prepare for more counterattacks, something Russia worries about given their timeline.
This has already delayed Russia’s offensive by months, and it will take many more weeks for them to regain their previous position.
Recently, Russia tried an armored assault on Orikhiv, which failed badly (A). They also tried to advance through Mala Tokmachka (B) before, but that failed too. A direct attack on Orikhiv is unlikely to succeed without heavy losses, so Russia wants to avoid it unless they have no choice. Still, based on past experience, they might end up having to take the town this way.
The military analysis of Iran has been the absolute worst military analysis I have ever seen in my entire life.
There have been times where I listen to some "expert" where almost every word they say in the entire interview is factually wrong. Some of these people are so wrong that I feel like you could have a big box of words and reach in and draw them randomly and it be more factual.
To prove my point, I just asked a LLM to analyze the form of a normal military interview on cable news and using strictly randomly generated words and no access to the actual news please give me a report on what's going on in Ian (unironically, this is what LLMs are good at, probably, just lying about shit):::
From an operational standpoint, the expanding American strike corridor may complicate Iran’s layered coastal defenses, which could scatter missile batteries inland.
At the tactical level, the Iranian drone screen might disrupt a forward U.S. maneuver package, which could stall momentum along the maritime axis.
From the broader battlefield geometry, the concentrated American carrier posture may pressure Iran’s southern command network, which could trigger rapid repositioning of defensive units.
Right now on the ground, the reinforced Iranian coastal belt might absorb the initial U.S. probing attacks, which could slow the opening phase of the campaign.
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.