Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi have finally released their joint manifesto. On foreign policy, it says Italy full fledged member of NATO, Europe and the West. It supports Ukraine against the invasion- and “every diplomatic avenue to end the conflict”. Draghi language was tougher
It’s no secret Draghi had become most hawkish on Russia among big MS. On Europe, the trio Meloni, Salvini, Berlusconi say EU should be more political, less bureaucratic, and economic governance revised to boost growth. Italy pledges to promote Europe’s Christian roots
There’s also a pledge to lower taxes - no surprise - and simplify the Italian tax code. Debt/deficit not on document so hard to tell. The trio say Italy will make full and efficient use of the EU recovery funding - but opens door to revising plan. This is tricky.
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Yesterday, Meloni addressed the international press saying fascism is dead in Italy - and there’s no ambiguity. Here’s a woman that cares a lot about the international press. What it writes about her and on what terms. That’s an important difference to the 2018 election.
In 2018, Lega and 5star ran a domestic campaign, they played agitators and couldn’t care less about international perception. In tension, they stayed relevant. Meloni took the lessons, so there’s a whole sobering up going on. I’m still not sure what it does her base though.
If you look at her views vs base there’s a gap on key issues like Ukraine. Playing moderate abroad and firebrand at home is hard to sustain. On the economy, it gets even more complicated. It’s astute campaigning, not so easy in government.
If you listen to the Ukrainian authorities attentively, there’s two messages they’re pushing for:
I. A ceasefire is these conditions is a bad idea. War goals for Ukraine have changed with major weapons deliveries from the USA, can shift from defensive to counteroffensive
A ceasefire, which they don’t believe would last much, would allow Russia to take a breather and prepare for next. Question is; can there be peace without military strength? For Ukrainians, answer is no.
2. EU candidate status. It’s the absolute political priority for Ukraine over short term. They want something on paper by June when European leaders meet in Brussels. Ukrainians, I know, are really pushing for it. Workarounds like pre to pre candidate status doesn’t work for them
Mario Draghi gave a long interview to @Corriere fascinating in many ways. Rome much tougher than Paris and Berlin. Draghi not convinced diplomatic channels work with Putin and says failure failure to arm Ukraine means condemning to submission
On Putin - Draghi says he’s always supported Macron’s diplomatic efforts under the EU presidency but talking hasn’t stopped the horrors of war. The Italian premier adds: «I’m beginning to think those who say talking to Putin is useless are right.»
On arming Ukraine - Draghi says economic sanctions are designed to weaken Russia’s war machine but they won’t physically stop troops on the grounds. «Ukraine’s will to resist occupation. If we don’t help them directly - it’s like asking them to give up, surrender and submit.”
Lío enorme en Europa por los contratos de vacunación negociados entre el big pharma y la Comisión, que negocia precio y cantidad en nombre de todos los estados miembros. Mini hilo:
Dos varapalos seguidos: primero Pfizer anuncia que debido a una mejora de su cadena de producción (bueno al largo plazo, malo en el corto) podría sufrir retrasos de algunas semanas. Pfizer es la vacuna principal en Europa por el simple motivo de que fue la primera en aprobarse.
La Comisión consigue, en teoría, recortar el tiempo de espera. Esta semana debería notarse el aumento en entregas y a mitad de Febrero ver los beneficios del nuevo sistema. Sin embargo, el gobierno italiano furioso al haber perdido ritmo la semana pasada.
Ok pequeño hilo sobre el coronavirus en Europa. Ayer los 27 se reunieron vía conferencia. Entre los líderes europeos existe un gran temor sobre una mutación del virus. El Reino Unido es el ejemplo de una tormenta perfecta. Se da por hecho más restricciones en las próxima semanas.
Cada vez que Europa intenta abrir, saltan los casos. Quiere decir que la vacuna de momento no es capaz de hacer el “break even”, es decir al menos neutralizar el impacto. Esta semana problemas de distribución con Pfizer - la vacuna principal en Europa. Sobre las vacunas, lio.
Críticas, cada vez más políticas, al regulador por no ir más rápido. Si bien el impacto del virus es como una guerra, no estamos vacunando como una guerra. Esto sería 24/7 sin parar. Los británicos han tomado esta línea: hay que vacunar en masa, todo el tiempo, sin descanso.