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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Aug 12

Listened to the Mccullough interview on Issues, etc. So many false claims in such a short interview. But I just want to be clear that when he says pro-vax folks don't cite the data, that's a bald-faced lie.

The reason nobody buys the myocarditis line anymore is because we have actual data on myocarditis deaths over time. Here's what it looks like:

Sometimes COVID causes myocarditis, so when COVID spikes, COVID+myocarditis spikes. But non-COVID myocarditis has been totally stable. But if vaccines cause myocarditis, it should have risen apart from COVID infection!

Read 37 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Aug 11

Absolutely fascinating article takes about 1,000 people with court-documented serious child abuse years ago and surveys them again in adulthood.

The findings are remarkable. gwern.net/docs/psycholog…

Basically, they find that there is no association between childhood abuse and psychopathology UNLESS there is a negative feeling about that abuse reported as an adult.

Now, this is on the one hand tautological: people with psychopathology are astronomically more likely to report any given negative affect.

Read 11 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Aug 11

https://twitter.com/adamdavidson/status/1557704779211702272

sort of strange that the world's most prominent communist government, which is routinely criticized as communist, is very clearly Chinese, not Jewish, and in fact persecutes its small historic Jewish community

https://twitter.com/adamdavidson/status/1557704779211702272

in fact i would wager a large majority of anti-communist statements in the world today are about china, and very difficult to construe as anti-semitic since chinese, last i checked, is not a semitic language

if i say "communism is awful, screw the communists!" without caveat

you'd have to be trapped in 1988 to default to something besides "the ccp" as the default group i'm talking about

Read 4 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Aug 11

Very good article on what we know about monkeypox.
1) The virus survives and can be cultured out of semen, blood, feces
2) still >90% of infections are sexual contacts
3) attack rate of household members is extremely low

Upshot: STD among MSM
statnews.com/2022/08/10/wha…

It CAN spread through nonsexual contact but usually does not. The only study of asymptomatic persons found zero transmission. There are prior documented cases of very limited airborne transmission, but very few in the current outbreak.

My read of the article is health authorities are largely braindead and angling to create a huge outbreak even huge-er. The advice the UK is giving is "use a condom for 8 weeks."

Folks, the advice needs to be "do not have any contact with humans for 8 weeks"

Read 11 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Aug 10

Over the last few weeks I've gotten a lot of questions and some flak over my excess mortality tweet suggesting that mortality had returned to normal levels and thus the pandemic was over. So, let's look at mortality one more time.

U.S. weekly deaths returned to totally normal levels in the spring. In the summer they have risen a bit to levels lower than at any time during the pandemic, but still somewhat higher than normal.

But, is that "excess"?

Well, if we just look at the typical mortality increase from 2014 to 2019 and assume that it would have continued in 2020-2022 in the absence of the pandemic, that gives us a plausible counterfactual "but for" baseline for calculating excess.

Read 5 tweets

Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬

@lymanstoneky

Aug 9

India today and Norway in 1960 probably had about the same typical age at marriage, and yet Norway's real standard of living in 1960 remained >2x higher than India's today.

Norway in the 1960s and Malaysia today have very comparable standards of living (of course comparisons across time and space are never perfect, but, broadly comparable).

And yet, Malaysians marry 4-5 years later in life than Norwegians did.

The truth is this kind of comparison is easy to make in many places and times: in general, family changes are spreading around the world a LOT faster than economic development is, which strongly suggests that neither has a causal tie to the other.

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