Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

A really interesting analysis by @IAPonomarenko about how Ukraine is trying to cope with Russian artillery strength and what it needs to do it better. Worth a close read as there are many important points.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1558166793558134785

Throughout the story the theme is that Ukraine must improve its counter battery capabilities (hitting Russian artillery once it fires and reveals itself) to try and counter Russian numerical superiority in guns

HIMARS and other ranged attacks have made a significant difference in Russian artillery capabilities, but the Russians can still mass artillery in certain areas. As for the state of the artillery war, for the first time I saw hard estimates from Ukr.

The first was that the depot attacks have reduced daily Russian artillery fire in the Donbas by half to two thirds. From 12-15k Russian rounds a day to 5-6k

Overall Russian artillery piece superiority has also been reduced but is still there. 2000 Russian artillery pieces to approx 500 Ukr. I haven’t seen such definte figures for a while

However even with the reduction in Russian fire, they can still generate heavy, demoralising fire at certain parts of the front. Not like before when compared to the large cities of Severodonetsk being hammered, but still significant.

The powerful description was of a Russian artillery attack on the small town of Pivka.

How should Ukr respond. Also important. The Ukr military is attempting a really tricky adjustment, from a highly centralised Soviet style command to a more decentralised NATO one. This poses problems as there is not one place for artillery expertise.

In particular the decentralised system means it’s difficult to create counter battery expertise to be shared amongst the army. Basically the expertise needed is complex and they haven’t been able to train consistently enough at it

In that way, what it needs is clear, Ukraine needs the equipment and training to improve counter battery skills. They need specialist training; shared expertise and better drone technology. Together that helps with fast identification of a target and rapid fire in return.