Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

My daily update! #urkdailyupdate

I am using a different format because today’s news is boring.

If you would like to view the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

In the Izyum area, there is a media blackout, so it is hard to confirm rumors about changes in the front line. However, Russia did fail to attack Dolyna and Bohorodychne. BTW I’m not using numbers today because I am lazy.

Russia is attacking all the same areas as usual in the Siversk area. Ever since capturing Lysychansk, Russia has had limited success in this area.

On my map, I track when Russia captures territory. So here, let me show a few:

More:

Even more:

Except for Berestove and their limited movement yesterday towards Verkhnokamyanske, Russia hasn’t moved in over a month.

In the Bakhmut area, Russia again attacked all of the usual places. I could not find evidence of assaults in Soledar or Bakhmutske, but I am sure there is fighting there.

Russia has not been able to move in Soledar for the past few days after they captured the Knauf Gips plant, and I have not heard of any progress in Bakhmutske.

In Bakhmut, Russian forces have been struggling to approach Ukrainian positions. Bakhmut is full of heavily fortified industrial areas, which Russia has proven ineffective at assaulting.

This eastern portion of Bakhmut has several industrial buildings overlooking each other, each heavily fortified. So as Russia tries to move towards one, the others provide fire to drive the Russians back.

The other roads into Bakhmut will offer similar problems for the Russian attackers. Russia will have to grind through these defenses and could suffer high casualty rates as a result.

Just south of Bakhmut, Russia decided to attack two Zaitseve simultaneously to give everyone a headache. I will number Zaitseve’s for this reason. In southern Zaitseve (2), Russia made some progress pushing north into the town.

In northern Zaitseve (1), they have made little progress in the past two days. All of their attacks in this area have had little success. I am not sure they have even fully captured Vershyna yet.

In the Donetsk area, Russia attacked Avdiivka, Pisky, and Marinka without any significant changes.

Horrific reports are coming from the LPR and DPR talking about atrocious fighting conditions, soldiers with little to no training, and soldiers recruited from amongst the sick, weak, elderly, or the unwell, including those with mental and physical disabilities.

Some of these reports are likely exaggerated by generalizing anecdotes. However, even under the most optimistic reading of this situation, the LPR and DPR do not have enough infantry to capture these fortified settlements and the lines of fortifications behind them.

There is not an empty road to Kyiv behind Pisky. No, Russia needs to move another 60km beyond these areas to reach the administrative border of Donetsk. The LPR and DPR do not have the men to pull this off.

(you cannot change miles to kilometers in google my maps, sorry)

South of Donetsk, Russia wants to push Ukraine’s forces back over the Kashlahach River. Ukraine controls the areas around Shevchenko and Pavlivka, and Russia has been attacking both relentlessly. Today they attacked Pavlivka, and the attack failed.

In the Kherson area, Ukraine may have expanded its bridgehead over the Inhulets River substantially. I have decided to expand the gray area. Ukraine may control all or most of this gray area.

That is all I have for today.

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