Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Aug 13 19 tweets 6 min read
Why do Brazilians speak Portuguese and not Spanish?

Because of the rotation of the Earth and the distance between Puerto Rico and Cape Verde:
It's 1494

Just 6 years earlier, in 1488, Portugal discovered a path to the Indian Ocean passing below Africa. If they could establish a trade route to the Indies, they could break the Muslim monopoly on the Silk Road and get crazy rich. But the Spanish want in too...
But just 2 years earlier, in 1492, Spain discovered America while looking for another route to the Indies. Now Portugal wants in too...

After some negotiations, they sign the Treaty of Tordesillas: the eastern path is for Portugal, the western path for Spain.
What will be the limit between the 2 spheres of influence? They settle on the midpoint between Spain's islands in the Caribbean and Portugal's islands on Africa's west coast—Cape Verde.
Move the Caribbean islands or Cape Verde east, or Brazil west, and they would have fallen on the Spanish side and speak Spanish to this day

Alas, this line gives the Brazilian tip of America to Portugal. But they don't know that, because Brazil has not been discovered yet!
In another world, Portugal would have kept its focus on Africa & Asia, and Spain on America for so long that Spain would have reached & conquered Brazil. Hard to fight that after the fact.

But Portugal was about to discover Brazil independently! Because of the Earth's rotation
6 years after Tordesillas, in 1500, the Portuguese stumble upon Brazil without looking for it. How come?

The Volta do Mar
The Portuguese pioneered Atlantic sailing and soon realized the winds and currents were so strong and consistent that the fastest way to travel required a big detour to harness them. For example, coming back from India, it was fastest to go near America
The Portuguese discovered this because they realized the winds and currents formed a "gyre" in the North Atlantic.

They then assumed the inverse was true in the South Atlantic. They were right.
The Portuguese knowledge of winds and currents was so strong that that the 1st time Bartolomeu Dias rounded Africa's tip, he didn't realize he had because he was too far from the coast! He saw the Cape of Good Hope on the way back.
Over time, the Portuguese understood better the winds, currents, and geography of Africa, and started going way into the South Atlantic to round Africa's tip... Until they stumbled upon Brazil.
Brazil was perfect for Portugal:
• On the good side of the Treaty of Tordesillas
• A perfect pit stop for the ships
• Perfect for timber
• They could use their slave trade from Africa to bring slaves into Brazilian plantations
This video gives a chilling sense of the scale of that slave trade:
And why are there gyres in the Atlantic? Because of the rotation of the Earth. It's the Coriolis Force
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_…
So to summarize:
1. Brazil belonged to Portugal's sphere of influence because to define it, Spain and Portugal took the midpoint between Cape Verde and Spain's Caribbean islands in the Treaty of Tordesillas
2. The Earth's rotation causes the Coriolis force, which causes the Atlantic gyres, which made it useful for ships from Europe to Asia to pass by Brazil on their way below Africa's tip
In other words, Brazilians speak Portuguese and not Spanish because Brazil fell in Portugal's sphere of influence due to the distance between the Caribbean and Cape Verde; and Portugal found Brazil and needed it because of the Atlantic gyres caused by the rotation of the Earth.
I'll publish next week 2 articles, a brief history of Spain, and a brief history of Portugal. Follow me to get them, or sign up to my newsletter
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
If you want a taste of it, you can head to my article or thread about France

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More from @tomaspueyo

Jul 22
There are few threats of total human extermination:
1. A meteor hitting Earth
2. An alien civilization
3. A misaligned Artificial General Intelligence

Only #3 is possible in the next decades, and 2 new facts make it even more probable (scary!):
1. The forecasting community has halved its current prediction of when AGI will happen. They thought it would take 35 years, but since Dall-E 2, PaLM, and Gato, it has shrunk to 18 years, in 2040!
2. The very first engineer who thought his AI was sentient: what did he do? Start advocating for the AI's rights!

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 5 tweets
Jul 7
Here are some reasons why we're facing an underpopulation crisis, and some ways to solve it:

1. Conventional wisdom claims it's all about sanitation & money:
• Less child deaths = ppl need fewer kids
• You need more $ per kid for education & childcare

But it's only part of it
2. The first two Western places to reduce their fertility were France and Massachusetts, BEFORE the sanitation & industrial revolutions.

Both went on to have a political revolution a few decades later. These 2 facts are connected.
In both cases, the cause was likely secularization. In FR, the areas with the most secularization lost the most fertility. The descendants of those living in these areas carried that lower fertility with them.
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-twin-rev…
Read 14 tweets
Jun 25
Some polls I ran on here got crazy results. They reveal ppl's attitude about the future, but also key communication & design principles:

1. Ppl think it's bad to live forever


But if you ask it in a different way:
2. If you ask instead if it's good to choose at what age you can die, suddenly a majority is in favor.

Note it's the exact same thing: if you *can* live forever, you can still decide when to die—by killing yourself
3. If instead you call it an "elixir of life" and specify details, you can fully reverse the results

Read 13 tweets
Jun 14
"We're either the last generation to die or the 1st to live forever"

4 techs might make humans live forever in our lifetime. Together, there's a high chance you might see that moment if you live into the 2040s-2070s:
1. Aging stops
2. Cryonics
3. Mind Upload
4. AGI
🧵
1. Aging stops
Research is piling on about ways to slow down aging. Maybe enough will be discovered in the coming years that death gets postponed farther and farther, until we can reverse aging, at which point we'll live forever.
Everything from food, exercise, and affordable pills like metformin or NMN can make this happen. And we're discovering more about this process—and how to stop it—every day.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 8
This is how many years of life you could save by changing your diet
That's up to ~13y of life you can add!

Luckily, it works very well even if you start before 50, and you can even gain some years if you start at 80:
The actual data is this, I simplified the first graph for legibility.
Expected life years gained for 20-year-old female adults (left) and males (right) from the US who change from a typical Western diet to a better one. Changes in grams per day.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 7
What will the democracy of the future look like?

We're so buried in the current system that we fail to see fundamentally better options

We can get inspiration from ants, AI, wikipedia, open source, brains, capitalism, von Moltke, prediction markets, Twitter: decentralization 🪡
1. Field Marshall von Moltke
Up till Napoleon, command centers dictated forces what to do. But in the 1800s, the telegraph and train emerged. Fast mvmt of ppl and info➡️too many decisions to make. Von Moltke pushed decisions down to his forces
The Prussians steamrolled the French
2. Mgmt by Results
OKRs and similar systems give a high-level direction, but it's up to the workers to decide what projects to prioritize. By pushing decisions close to the ground, they are better informed and end up better.
Read 14 tweets

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