All Porter’s Five Forces are great to study, but the single force that matters the most is threat of new entrants.

If you can’t check this box, you should just move on to the next company.

#RandomThoughts
If demand is so great to where any company can earn high returns on capital, other businesses will notice and enter the market to compete for the profit pool.
Demand will then be distributed across more players and cause costs per unit to rise as fixed costs spread around fewer units sold.
Prices will then fall and cause all the original high economic profit to disappear.
Supplier/buyer power, threat of substitutes, and competitive rivalry are all important—but all can be ignored if barriers to entry do not exist as the company won’t have to worry about influencing behavior because there will simply be too many external factors to deal with.

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More from @FocusedCompound

Aug 9
Walter Schloss was one of the greatest investors of the 20th century. He beat the S&P by 6% a year over 47 years.

A $1,000 investment made with Walter Schloss in 1955 was worth over $1 million in 2002.

That's turning every one dollar in 1955 into one thousand dollars by 2002.
How many fund managers keep at it for more than 4 decades?

Not too many.
Buffett wrote about Walter in his 2006 letter to shareholders:
Read 5 tweets
Apr 2
A lot of investment research can be analysis paralysis

Here's the first 8 things to look at when researching a stock to give you a good foundation for understanding the business

A Thread:

$GEOFF
Here’s a full list of my usual sources:
• Why Check the Long-Term Stock Performance?

This is something a lot of value investors wouldn’t think of.

But, I find it very useful.

Any time you are looking at a stock’s performance your choice of start date and end date are important.
Read 36 tweets
Mar 26
You should not invest in a company if you do not understand the competitive landscape it operates in.

My mind immediately goes to competition when analyzing a new company + industry.

Here are 10 checklist items you can start with

A thread:

$GEOFF
There’s a checklist you can work through to see. It’s made up of 5 items from Michael Porter and 5 items from Morningstar.
You may be able to identify if some of these items might apply to the company you’re looking at. And then, you can judge how durable they are or not. So, here’s the 10-point checklist.
Read 34 tweets
Mar 23
Most people wish they could find more time to focus on investing.

Here's a framework for investing when you only have an hour a day to do it.

A thread:

$GEOFF
I’m going to ask you to spend 5-7 hours a week on investing.

But it must be an hour a day – every day – instead of five hours all at once.

There’s a reason for this. I want you 100% focused when you are working on investing.
You don’t have to spend a lot of time on investing. But you do need to be focused when you are doing it.

Most people who invest are never fully focused for even an hour on a narrowly defined task.

So, that is what I need from you. An hour a day of total focus.
Read 45 tweets
Mar 22
Hunting for Hundred Baggers: What Stocks Should – and Shouldn’t – Go in a Coffee Can Portfolio

A thread from The $GEOFF Archives:
From a “100-bagger” type perspective, the criteria are pretty simple:

1) Is it a small stock (probably a micro-cap, definitely a small-cap)? – We’re talking <$300 million market cap probably, but certainly like $1 billion or so – not multi-billions
2) Does it have a market multiple or lower (so, say most P/Es today are 18 or whatever – is it 18 or less, not above)

3) Does it grow faster than most businesses, the economy, etc.

4) Is it self-funding?
Read 22 tweets
Nov 29, 2021
If you read about how Warren Buffett applied Phil Fisher’s scuttlebutt approach, you’ll notice something interesting

He tried to understand the business.. like really understand the business
When Buffett was interested in advertising stocks, he asked his advertising friends about the advertising business. He learned everything he could about insurance. He stood behind the counter at an Omaha restaurant and watched as people used their AMEX cards.
He wasn’t looking for inside information. He wasn’t looking for an edge. He wasn’t checking channels. He wasn’t trying to figure out what this month’s comps looked like.

He was just trying to find the connection between people’s behavior and what he was seeing in the 10K
Read 5 tweets

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