If demand is so great to where any company can earn high returns on capital, other businesses will notice and enter the market to compete for the profit pool.
Demand will then be distributed across more players and cause costs per unit to rise as fixed costs spread around fewer units sold.
Prices will then fall and cause all the original high economic profit to disappear.
Supplier/buyer power, threat of substitutes, and competitive rivalry are all important—but all can be ignored if barriers to entry do not exist as the company won’t have to worry about influencing behavior because there will simply be too many external factors to deal with.
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You should not invest in a company if you do not understand the competitive landscape it operates in.
My mind immediately goes to competition when analyzing a new company + industry.
Here are 10 checklist items you can start with
A thread:
$GEOFF
There’s a checklist you can work through to see. It’s made up of 5 items from Michael Porter and 5 items from Morningstar.
You may be able to identify if some of these items might apply to the company you’re looking at. And then, you can judge how durable they are or not. So, here’s the 10-point checklist.
Hunting for Hundred Baggers: What Stocks Should – and Shouldn’t – Go in a Coffee Can Portfolio
A thread from The $GEOFF Archives:
From a “100-bagger” type perspective, the criteria are pretty simple:
1) Is it a small stock (probably a micro-cap, definitely a small-cap)? – We’re talking <$300 million market cap probably, but certainly like $1 billion or so – not multi-billions
2) Does it have a market multiple or lower (so, say most P/Es today are 18 or whatever – is it 18 or less, not above)
3) Does it grow faster than most businesses, the economy, etc.
If you read about how Warren Buffett applied Phil Fisher’s scuttlebutt approach, you’ll notice something interesting
He tried to understand the business.. like really understand the business
When Buffett was interested in advertising stocks, he asked his advertising friends about the advertising business. He learned everything he could about insurance. He stood behind the counter at an Omaha restaurant and watched as people used their AMEX cards.
He wasn’t looking for inside information. He wasn’t looking for an edge. He wasn’t checking channels. He wasn’t trying to figure out what this month’s comps looked like.
He was just trying to find the connection between people’s behavior and what he was seeing in the 10K