Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday update (a little later, sorry was travelling). There seem to be two different narratives emerging--Russians pushing forward a little in the Donbas/Donetsk, Ukrainians setting up for a wasting campaign against the Russians in Kherson.

In the Donbas area the Russians over the last week have claimed to have moved forward towards Bakhmut and Siversk, and many pro-Russian outlets are making much of these claims. The truth seems that they have pushed a few kilometres forward in areas, but not as much as claimed.

This is quite a useful @TheStudyofWar interactive map of today. The yellow is what the Russians are claiming, the broken red line is where the ISW calculates where they are. You can explore the map here. storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…

Same in the Donetsk. Small Russian advances registered. storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…

What improvement the Russians are gaining from this seems to be simply a smaller version of what they did earlier during the very heavy phase of the Battle of the Donbas. Slow, incremental advances, no breakout, no exploitation, no ability to surround Ukr forces.

Just pound away directly in front and advance into a cleared out area. However, the Russians seem able to do this now on a considerably smaller scale than in May-June and early July. This limited area of advance seems to be the result of successful Ukrainian logistics attacks.

There was an important article by @IAPonomarenko about continuing Ukrainian difficulties in dealing with massed artillery fire (Ukr must improve counterbattery fire). It had the first Ukr estimates of how Russian fire has overall been reduced in the east, and its signifant...

Overall Russian ranged fired down by 50%-66% (half to two thirds). From 10-15k Russians shells fired a day to 5-6K. Shows just how important controlling logistics is in war. This reduction could never be achieved by fighting direct engagement battles.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1558210085758853120?s=20&t=kqT2LSd10Gee6aZ55JSDVA

So in the east the Russians are able to push forward in increasingly smaller areas. They can still generate considerable firepower in the smaller areas, but its hard to see this leading to any major breakout.

In the Kherson region, the Ukrainians have not pushed forward much either, though there are indications of some advance in the far northwest.

However what they have continued to do, is hammer the logistics routes crossing the Dnieper River. As of Now Ukraine is claiming that they have taken both the major crossings at Nova Kakhovka and Kherson out of action (at least for heavy supplies). bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

If this is true (stress on if) this matters far more than any halting Russian advance in east. I know Ive been banging on about it for weeks, but it looks like this was the exact Ukr plan. Scare the Russians into reinforcing the west bank of the Dnieper.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1558497168910082049?s=20&t=kqT2LSd10Gee6aZ55JSDVA

And once they have, the Ukr cut the logistics links so the larger force cant be supplied. If they can carry out this logistics cuts the Russian troops will either have to be pulled out (or many will) or they will be abandoned because they cant be supplied.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1554896154692911104?s=20&t=kqT2LSd10Gee6aZ55JSDVA

Overall this way of fighting is generally why I'm positive about Ukr prospects. The two sides are intellectually fighting very differently. The Russians are plodding, battle-centric, have difficulties adjusting and cant operate their complex systems well (see air and sea power)

The Ukr are fighting more well-thought out campaigns, show the ability to adjust, and are actually showing the ability to operate different complex systems (NATO systems) that they have almost no exposure too before Feb 24.

In many ways that is summarized in the most sensational development of the week, the Ukr attack on Saki Airfield in Crimea. However they did it, it shows the capacity to plan and execute of a very high order. Rus forces, otoh, seemed unprepared.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1556999331101687810?s=20&t=kqT2LSd10Gee6aZ55JSDVA

What the Ukrainians are doing is posing a series of different and difficult challenges to the Rus Army. The Russians seem able to pose one major one (massed firepower). If the Ukr can learn to contend with that (and they should if provided more aid), what will the Russians do?