Thread by @brokenpixelua

About Ukraine from a Ukrainian

Little by little the joyful voices predicting "the end of Putin",defeat of the 🇷🇺 army, etc.,are dying down, and this is pleasing.Although,in general, news about Ukraine tends to fade away and there is no tragedy in this - just the truth of life 1/

From the inside,the situation is like a crazy swing:hooray! we're breaking up ammunition depots every day*oh no!they killed our prisoners!*Hooray! we destroyed their airfield!*oh no!another village or city was taken from us.
That's how you can go crazy and it's not a metaphor 2/

And in fact,the war continues as it has since April:the occupiers are slowly but steadily advancing along almost the entire front,except for the South.The other day, the first detachments of 🇷🇺 entered the outer streets of the city of Bakhmut,which is defended by our battalion 3/

In the South, where a major counter-offensive was announced, nothing has happened and, it seems, will not happen. I believe that was a trick to distract 🇷🇺 from Donbas and dispersed their groups here. This seemed to slow the advance, but not stop it 4/

In some areas of the front,🇷🇺 artillery outnumbers us by 10 times.There are places where our artillery is not present at all.Therefore, if someone says about some parity, then spit in the eyes of this fool. Ukraine is still just trying to stop this scourge. 5/

But the 🇷🇺, in fact, are bloodless. Their infantry attacks are no longer so massive because the Ukrainian army has inflicted unprecedented losses on them and this is the holy truth. It is also true that our loses not much less + tens of thousands of killed civilians. 6/

I have no doubt that the 🇷🇺 started shelling the Energodar nuclear plant in order to negotiate a ceasefire.They need this,but not right now,because large areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are still under the control of Ukraine but soon - at the end of September,October 7/

Therefore, they will a) increase the tension around nuclear plant b) head towards freezing the situation on a frontline c) will continue bloody battles even when both sides will sit at the negotiating table. I think than most cruel battles possible 8/

Europe will be happy with such a scenario, because it sees it as "giving peace a chance", the same will happen to Putin's lobbyists in the USA. Arms supplies to Ukraine will be limited to a minimum, the issue of buying gas and oil will be discussed at the beginning of 2023 9/

In practice, this will mean a complete victory for putin,which he will announce to all 🇷🇺. A bloody wound will open in the center of Europe, dozens of cities will lie in ruins for years and years, as the cities of Georgia still lie. 10/

Next, 🇷🇺 will hold referendums in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Of course no one will recognize them, but who is counting on international recognition nowadays? International law is destroyed. In a few years, 🇷🇺 will claim a liberation of new republics from 🇺🇦 11/

Pretty pessimistic, yeah? Still I believe that 🇷🇺 will collapse cause this war. Really believe. But I also see that 🇺🇦 and our lives is a price for that.Our cities in ruins, families spread around the world,dozens thousands citizens are dead and it’s just started 12/

And again, this is not a tragedy - this is an important lesson. For Ukraine, the lesson is that the state and freedom do not come without a struggle, for the Free World - that despite progress and a high level of comfort the danger of dispersing in chaos still exists 13/

While I was writing, the meat has just finished roasting, and the boys and I will celebrate another day to the sound of cannonades 14/