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Aug 15 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
There's an uptick in media reports regarding Ukraine Army actions in Kherson. Rightfully so.

Many (me included) watching this closely. Will provide thoughts in a few days. But could be a mini-Falaise pocket (WWII reference) as UA has brilliantly attacked RU LOCs....1/2
...while using terrain/rivers to their advantage. It also appears Putin refuses to allow his generals to withdraw (like Hitler before him w/ Marshall von Kluge)

Back then, the Germans were trapped west of the Seine. This time, it will be the RU west of the Dnipro.

2/2

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More from @MarkHertling

Mark Hertling Profile picture
Aug 17
This 25 tweet 🧵by my Australian friend MG (ret) Mick Ryan @WarintheFuture is succinct, descriptive of campaign planning & operational art, and a phenomenal discussion of Ukraine's potential plans in the south.

Hope Mick doesn't mind, but I'll add a few additional comments. 1/
Like Mick, I also attended a campaign course, @us_sams.

Affectionately called the "book a day club," as we were required to read (& apply) history, military art, doctrine, theory.

Best military course, ever. 2/
MG Ryan describes what campaign planners consider.

-Political guidance & strategy
-Friendly & Enemy Capabilities
-Constraints & restraints
-Will
-Tactics & Operational Design (sequencing battles to achieve strategic endstates) 3/mwi.usma.edu/developing-a-c…
Read 21 tweets
Mark Hertling Profile picture
Aug 12
In the past few hours many of us have watched the discussion regarding classified documents & their appropriate storage.

Since like most senior officers I had some experience in this area, I thought it would be helpful to provide some BASIC info.

So, this new 🧵is born! 1/21
1st, there are three levels of security classification for the US Government:
-Classified
-Secret
-Top Secret

Each one of those have increasing degree of sensativity.
I'll cover those first 3, but please know there are "additional" descriptors confusing levels we'll get to.2/
CLASSIFIED is the lowest classification level. It's information that might "damage or disclose" an element of national security.

Classified document may address particulars about a weapon system (e.g., max range of a missile) or #'s of soldiers deployed. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Mark Hertling Profile picture
Aug 9
Lots of discussion about the documents. @BrynnTannehill thread is conjecture, but if true (likely as this is the kind of classified documents high level officials receive) is incredibly dangerous. She says “SAP.” Those Special Access Programs are known by very few…1/5
Even saying the “code word” associated with them to others not “read in” on the program is a security violation punishable by prison. Given @JaxAlemany’s report that written lists compiled at the scene could not include some documents seems to indicate SAP. 2/
To read SAP documents requires a Top Secret Clearance, to be “read on” regarding the details of the program, and understanding the special rules of safeguarding the particulars. How do I know this? I’ve been “read on” to many, couldn’t talk about it to anyone outside a SCIF…3/
Read 5 tweets
Mark Hertling Profile picture
Aug 8
The @sbg1 & @peterbakernyt piece & the tweet by @RadioFreeTom tweaked similar memories of "you don't says" I was a part of (and took heat over):

1.The military will only follow legal orders:
washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoin…
2. No country for military parades
usnews.com/opinion/thomas…

1/4
3. Drawdown of troops in Europe
stltoday.com/opinion/column…
4. Pardoning war criminals
cnn.com/2019/05/20/opi…
5. Navy required to cleanup pardons
cnn.com/2019/11/25/opi… 2/
But my favorite was when Trump said he was "smarter than the general" (talking to @ac360 about me)

(BTW, I don't believe @andersoncooper was sorry about bringing me into that discussion). 3/
Read 4 tweets
Mark Hertling Profile picture
Aug 6
It's unfortunate, but I'm just now seeing this magnificent 🧵 by my friend @warinthefuture.

MG (ret) Ryan provides comments on changes in RU's warfighting approach...and this is a keeper/must read.

Hoping Mick doesn't mind, but I'd like to add a few thoughts.

A new 🧵1/
Yes, RU had an initial plan in Feb. I did a brief for some folks showing my thoughts on original operational & strategic objectives.

See the 2 charts below.

RU assigned 190,000 forces on 9+ avenues of approaches on exterior lines...and were rebuffed for a variety of reasons. 2/
As noted in March, the myriad reasons for RU failure:
-Poor command & control
-lack of preparation (training & exercises) to the planned maneuver
-dysfunction logistics system
-practice not following doctrine
-ineffective combined arms maneuver & air support
-etc, etc, 3/
Read 25 tweets
Mark Hertling Profile picture
Aug 4
Last night I was w/ a group of sparkly-smart PMBA students.

During a break, one said: "Your 🧵s on Ukraine are understandable for those who don't normally study this stuff, could you do one on China?"

While admittedly not a China expert, here are some thoughts. 1/
As background, I was a LTC at the National War College in 1998. At the end of the course, the class separates and travels to different parts of the world for a few weeks to see analyze security challenges the US faces.

Having spent so much time in EU, I volunteered for China.2/
Six of us traveled to several cities to observe military, economic & diplomatic elements of PRC's national power.

One place we visited was the Chinese War College in Nanjing, where we received information about their emerging national security strategy & 20 year plan. 3/
Read 20 tweets

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