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@WarMonitor3

Mar 16

What is the Russian Hybrid Strategy For The West And Where Does It Come From?
A thread🧵

The Russian Federation a major player on the international stage has been always in some way excluded from the liberal order of the west, for its authoritarian tendencies and its hostile attitude toward Europe and the US. After its numerous wars with neighbours mainly the 2008 invasion of Georgia, decision makers in the Kremlin more namely military officials sort to revolutionise the Russian strategy to war and countering the west, away from its traditionally overt and forward foreign policy stratergy. Key individuals such as General Valery Gerasimov the current head of Russias armed forces, understood that in order for the federation to compete with the west on the world stage it would have to somewhat in his mind mirror the strategy of NATO. This involved using a new form of Russian foreign policy one heavily involved in what is now called hybrid warfare the new reliance on non military tools in order to destabilise nations and allow Russian influence to prosper. This tactic involved a combination of military and non military tactics, the goal of creating division and instability as a form of vulnerability. The somewhat genius nature of this tactic which I will explain below is that it seeks to use the wests altruism and trust in international governance against itself, giving Russian plausible deniability and being able to leverage goodwill against the West. General Valery Gerasimov outlined this strategy in full in 2013 in an article he wrote for a state newspaper in Russia, I will now explain the key elements of this foreign policy directive.

How the hybrid strategy works and what components exist within it:
Gerasimov believed that the threshold for war had gone up, conflicts could not be declared and exist without the engagement of conventional military forces. What he means by this is that Russia could wage different more civilian or proxy based conflict with nations and avoid the international repercussions of doing so increasing Russian influence without the repercussions of direct action:

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WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧

@WarMonitor3

Feb 20

Ukraines peace process so far:
The rough road to peace started over the past week, international politics and relations have been shook by hardline American diplomacy and stubborn reactionary responses from Ukraine and Europe.
Here is a summary of what has occurred so far:

This who debacle and international crisis this has turned into started on February the 11th where Donald Trump sends his newly appointed Secretary of Defence to Germany under what seems now vague instructions, to pledge the new American position on Europe and Ukraine. Pete Hegseth the former military man and the relatively new statesmen proceeds to make outlandish statements in a press conference about Ukraine and relations with Europe, over the next couple days. Some of these statements included hardline rhetoric on what he saw as the unrealistic “2014 border return of the Ukrainian territories” and a complete refusal of “Ukraine to join NATO” in any peace settlement. He then proceeded to call Europe weak and essentially leeching off the US for defence calling America “Uncle Sucker”, Finally finishing off his several rants with claiming American troops would never to be deployed to Ukraine.

These statements were then backpedaled at a later date by Peter Hegseth himself where he claimed “everything is on the table until Donald Trump takes them off” this sentiment was also reinforced by Trump at a press conference where he infamously said “Maybe” to Ukraine Nato membership, as well as Vance who said everything was on the table at the Munich conference.

February the 12th:
On February the 12th Donald Trump surprisingly initiated a long telephone conversation with President Putin, he claimed the call had lasted for an extended period of time where he discussed the peace process with Putin. After the call Trump claimed that Putin wanted peace and Bizarrely Ukraine had some role in prolonging the conflict. Too many in Europe’s and Ukraines surprise and disgust Trump not only spoke highly of Putin but also called the dictator before he called Zelenskyy not including him in discussions. Later that day, Trump did indeed call Zelenskyy and after a long discussion Trump claimed to be optimistic about coming to a peace deal in the region. Zelenskyy did later state he was confused why he was not consulted first but nevertheless saw the conversation with Trump to be productive, this was indeed the start of a weird precedence.

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WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧

@WarMonitor3

Feb 11

The Battle Of Mariupol a thread🧵
One of the most incredible defences of a besieged city in modern history a true story of David V Goliath.
How a small Ukrainian army grouping held off the Russian armies most elite brigades for 90 days, a tale of extreme heroism and sacrifice.

Why Mariupol one may ask in terms of key Russian military objectives?
The answer is simple but split into three parts.
Number 1- Capturing Mariupol allows a land corridor from Crimea to occupied Donetsk allowing the transfer or resources and people much easier.
Number 2-Mariupol and surrounding area has massive industrial capacity and is very resource rich something the Russian federation saw as important for their war effort.
Number 3- The infamous Azov regiment is stationed in Mariupol the regiment that defended the city in 2014 from Russian separatists and also the regiment that had been causing significant damages against Russian separatist brigades in the east since 2014. Russia saw it as important to destroy this brigade not only because of its military effectiveness but also because of its supposed far right links which is involved in a lot of Russias justification for the invasion to its domestic population, trying to draw parallels from the great patriotic war against Nazi Germany.

How many defenders were there in Mariupol and what regiments did they come from?
Together with the Azov regiment which consisted of around 1500 soldiers there was also the Ukrainian 36th Marine brigade and the 503rd marine artillery battalion totalling around 2000 soldiers.
These professional troops were backed up by the 109th territorial defence grouping and the 23rd separate law enforcement brigades totalling together around 800 fighters each these were also joined by smaller 150 each detachments of the 21st law enforcement and 12th operational brigades.
Estimates suggest initially Ukrainian forces only numbered 3500 troops to defend Mariupol against a Russian adversary with many times that in troops and equipment.
Defenders of the city had limited access to T-64-T-72 tank variants and also BTR and BMP variants again vastly being outnumbered by that of their Russian adversary.
How many Russian troops were deployed to take Mariupol initially?
Russian forces deployed over 3500 separatist troops from the so called Donetsk peoples army who matched Ukrainian defenders numerically but by far vastly outnumbered them in Equipment.
The seperatists came from 11th, 9th, 1st and 5th DPR bridges and the Sparta battalion who enjoyed unlimited naval and aerial support.
These separatist troops were backed up by over 10 thousand highly trained and equipped soldiers from 150th motorised rifle division, both stationed on the easter frontline of the city in occupied Donetsk.

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@WarMonitor3

Jan 25

The Battle of Hostomel Airport a thread🧵
The first and most important battle of the war in Ukraine.
A tale of extreme heroism from Ukrainian forces and a cunning Russian air assault plan that nearly ended the war before it started.
(Look below for the timeline of events)

Just minutes after President Putin declared the start of his renewed invasion Russian forces sent 2 3M54 Calibre Cruise missiles to target the national guard 4th rapid reaction brigade military base right next to Hostomel airport both hitting the then empty parade square.

In reaction to the strike 200 Ukrainian conscripts from the 4th brigade moved out from the base and set up defensive positions in small groups around the airport only armed with small arms and soviet era anti air and tank missiles.
They are later reinforced by units from the 1st operational brigade and from the OMEGA anti terrorist units who are all similarly armed.
There was a huge shortage of men as many professional soldiers had been sent to other directions, so now the defence of this hugely strategic location was left to less then a brigade sized element who were not able to cover the whole perimeter so had to move in small groups and spread out.

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WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧

@WarMonitor3

May 22, 2023

Units of the Russia freedom legion are conducting a cross border raid on towns in Belgorod region.
Heavy fighting was reported in the direction of Grayvoron district along with shelling.

Activity of Russian aerospace in particular attack helicopters has also been reported.

Raids of this nature are a tactic to draw enemy forces away from other frontlines.

Russian sources are now reporting there is clashes near the house of culture in the town of Gora-Podol

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WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧

@WarMonitor3

Jan 15, 2023

Bakhmut-Soledar Area Frontline Situation🧵
15/01/2023
Overview Map Bakhmut

Bakhmut Frontline PT1:
(South)
Russian forces have made advances south and east of Klishchiivka fighting continues in close vicinity to the town.
Russian forces continue assaults towards the northern part of Opytne where heavy battles continue from two directions.

Bakhmut Frontline PT2:
(East)
Fighting continues:
South east of the town near the "Damba Lake" Russian forces have captured the recycling centre area and warehouses around it.
Eastern side Fighting continues around Fedora Maksymenka street and the construction materials plant.

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