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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Aug 16, 2022 • 15 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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Tracking thread on rain/drought in Europe.

Last three days have seen some, which is very welcome to address a 500 year drought. I posted the thread below on Aug 14th when rain finally came to Bretagne, France.

#ClimateChangeNow Thread
Its worth pointing out that an extreme drought in Europe is not as bad as elsewhere in the world. Europe is used to getting lots of rain, and will likely continue to do so - and it has good reservoirs to deal with drought - this one is basically from June.
This thread consists mostly of satellite imagery over the past three days + some forecast data images which help explain what is going on. But not too many. And it looks at water transport from the Nth Atl & the West African Monsoon.

Day 1. 13-14 August - East NATL
Day 1. 13-14 August - Western Europe
Day 1. 13-14 August - Western Sahara

In a sense the 1st and 3rd images can be seen as the causation for the 2nd one - you can see the visible atmospheric water flows (Note: there are also invisible ones).
Here's the first forecast data set. Precipitable water - Atmospheric water over Europe 14th-19th August (3 days forecast)
Day 2 of rain 14-15 August. Again we start in the Eastern North Atlantic where the lows are obstructing dry air from moving in. Theres also a 2nd atmospheric river over Bretagne.

The atmospheric river running WNW over Morocco is feeding the 2nd low over E.Eur.

East NATL
Day 2 (yesterday). 14-15 August - Western Europe

Neither low pressure system is making much of a go of forming into storm - but there are lots of thunderstorms.
Day 2 (yesterday). 14-15 August - Western Sahara.

The area of Atlantic convection which was just east of Senegal before powering one of atmospheric rivers which brought rains to France at the weekend is now mainly on an Italian Adriatic trajectory.
These three foreacasts (14/15/16 Aug) are all for Friday 19th Aug. The lows are expected to be pushed East - but not very fast.
Day 3 of rain 14-15 August: The low over the Bay of Biscay is doing a lot of work trying to form a circulation but thee wind from the south is blowing it north and keeping it ragged. This it evening it is bringing more rain to Galicia & Compostela in NW Spain (the wettest part).
Day 3 (last night and today). 15-16 August - Western Europe. Both lows are still working hard to try and stay in place but are struggling to do so with Southerly winds aloft dragging a lot of moisture north over Scandinavia. Big line of storms from northern Italy to Austria.
Day 3 (lastnight and today). 15-16 August - Western Sahara.

I'll keep updating this so long as the rain lasts. Europe is still very much in drought.
Here are the latest 3,5,10 and 16 day forecasts for accumulated rainfall. It looks as if Germany still has at least five days to wait but that after that it will get a fair few decent showers.
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
Guess who has the most to lose if/when @realDonaldTrump discovers he’s now a lame duck President.

He is now so deep under water both in polling and with his base that it’s very hard to imagine him bouncing back.
I’ll answer my question shortly buts it’s well worth pondering…. In the meantime consider this.

Trump is now a laughing stock. And not only is everyone in America now laughing at him. But he has also been abandoned by his base and his party.
The bonfire of vanity that belongs to Donald Trump is iridescent, a signal to the world that his presidency has ended before it even started.
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
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Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
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But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 12
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.

James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.

The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.

It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.

Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.

Understand The Economy via @YouTubeyoutube.com/playlist?list=…
Read 7 tweets

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