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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Aug 16, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This is an extraordinarily important observation on Russian Army logistics.👇

Powered & towed barges have always been the go-to logistical tool for military powers without air superiority/in a contested air environment.

2/
General Douglas MacArthur's air power in New Guinea ran on towed fuel barges from 1942-1944, when Japanese aipower blocked normal coastal tanker movement.

2/ Image
German Marinefährprahm (MFP), "naval ferry barge", or "F-lighter" types A thru D were used in the Danube plus the Mediterranean, Adriatic, North, Baltic & Black Seas for German logistical movements under Allied air superiority.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marinef%C…
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River barge traffic fed the German war machine in the 1944 Normandy campaign, in large part because it wasn't a priority target on the Allied transportation campaign strike list.

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The Imperial Japanese Army & Navy made extensive uses of both un-powered and motorized barges to resupply under crushing Allied air superiority.

5/
The Russian Army used barges extensively with trains in "The Great Patriotic War," so their use in the current Russo-Ukrainian War is certain.

These barges were escorted or armed, see:

The Volga Flotilla Russian River Gunboats
worldnavalships.com/forums/thread.…

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See also this Russian barges in WW2 wiki entry:

Dnieper Flotilla
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper_F…
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And this entry.

Soviet Riverine Gunboats and Monitors
8/
naval-encyclopedia.com/ww2/soviet/riv… Image
The logistics of the Russo-Ukrainian War is proving to be an extended WW2 military history final exam for a lot of Western intelligence officers & analysts.

These folks already have an "incomplete" for WW2 mechanized logistics.

Let's see how well they will do with barges.🙄

9/
Hopefully modern Western analysts will do better with Russian barge traffic than the ones in SHAEF during the Normandy campaign.

10/End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 24
I'm sorry, but this statistic:

>>Violent crime is falling, with homicides down ~21%. The largest annual drop on record.

...has been heavily polluted by improvements in trauma care, particularly hemostatic (blood clotting) bandages.

US Trauma care & FBI statistics🧵

1/ Image
The statistical comparison in the FBI data from pre-1961 is invalid as the underlying medical systems have so changed as to utterly pollute the "murders per 100,000" data.

Violent crime data pre-1961 and post 1961 are apples to oranges comparisons.

2/
-Trauma care centers (1961),

-Standardized trauma procedures (1978),

-Adoption of military Korea/Vietnam medical emergency treatment & air transport procedures,

-Improved triage (1986)

-And (since 2011) widespread adoption and use of blood clotting bandages...

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 24
Chairman Xi suffers from the traditional dictator's trap of believing his own sh*t because he has made it too dangerous for his cronies and underlings to tell him the truth.

He has failed the "Dictator on the Wall Test."

1/
Thanks to that, Chairman Xi's Regime has pretty much no resilience in adversity because it's so kleptocratic and it's all about what the guy in charge can do for his next set of corrupt cronies today.

2/
This 1970's comment about the Shah of Iran is so historically on point in 2026 because it shows how Xi's regime is failing "The dictator on the wall test."

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Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 22
Greenland is badly needed by the USA to engage nuclear armed hypersonic glide vehicles and FOBS from China and Russia aimed at the continental USA.

So-called experts saying Greenland is "unnecessary" are "Cold War thinkers" focused on traditional ICBM threat geometries.
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They are not thinking in terms of the detection geometries required for lofted or depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and/or FOBS.

For those threats, the further forward you can deploy radars and interceptors, the better for detection and intercept.

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When geometrically minded experts in Australia looked at PLARF depressed trajectory ICBM's, HGV, and FOBS threat set.

They ended up placing a TPY-2 radars on the Cocos Island & Christmas Island ("Greenland for Oz") to generate tracks for SM-3 & THAAD interceptors.
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 20
This map of 124 Russian railway electric traction stations and the 40K OWA drone fired in 2025 demonstrates the political-military leadership failure of the Zelinskyy government.

Like Stalin's failed winter 1941-1942 counter offensives against Nazi Army Group Center,

🚅🧵
1/
...Ukraine is penny packing OWA drones everywhere to no great effect based on which military "Union" faction was last in the room with President Zelenskyy before a decision

Even Ukraine's vaunted oil offensive is a bare plurality of total drone strikes
2/
The latest @RyanO_ChosenCoy thread detailing the bureaucratic issues of Ukraine's military in targeting Russian logistics makes clear Ukraine's military has inter-service and intra-service union/factional disputes that are positively American in scale.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 19
Untrue⬇️

If the target of a US "rapid strike" was either the Kharg Island oil export facility or Iran's banking/financial system with a combination of explosives and non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse munitions, the Mullahs will fall.

COA🧵 Image
This post is typical of analytical thinking regarding strikes on Iran.

Note the complete lack of either Kharg island or the Iranian financial system on the list.

Regime Security Force as a distinct target set that needs a payroll is missing.

2/
There are two real courses of action (COA) for an American air campaign if Regime Change is the goal.

The Schwerpunkt - political center of gravity - of the Mullah regime is its ability to pay for the use Regime Security Forces & foreign hired mercenaries.

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Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jan 18
This is one of the 3 major strategic mistakes of the Zelenskyy Government.⬇️

Putin has shown better, more consistent, and more effective leadership in the strategic bombing of Ukrainian electrical infrastructure than Zelinskyy has in striking Russia's railways.

1/
Russia remains uniquely vulnerable to a focused drone strike campaign on it's electrical railway traction step down transformers.

Zelenskyy's leadership not only ignored hitting that unique Russian vulnerability since Feb. 2022.

See the figure below⬇️

2/ Image
To give you an idea of the abject political-military failure of the Zelenskyy government in this regard one has to look at the industrial supply chain for those traction substations.

The Soviet Union had two major transformer factories: Tolyatti and Zaporozhye.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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