Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 16 11 tweets 5 min read
This is an extraordinarily important observation on Russian Army logistics.👇

Powered & towed barges have always been the go-to logistical tool for military powers without air superiority/in a contested air environment.

2/
General Douglas MacArthur's air power in New Guinea ran on towed fuel barges from 1942-1944, when Japanese aipower blocked normal coastal tanker movement.

2/ Image
German Marinefährprahm (MFP), "naval ferry barge", or "F-lighter" types A thru D were used in the Danube plus the Mediterranean, Adriatic, North, Baltic & Black Seas for German logistical movements under Allied air superiority.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marinef%C…
3/ ImageImageImage
River barge traffic fed the German war machine in the 1944 Normandy campaign, in large part because it wasn't a priority target on the Allied transportation campaign strike list.

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The Imperial Japanese Army & Navy made extensive uses of both un-powered and motorized barges to resupply under crushing Allied air superiority.

5/
The Russian Army used barges extensively with trains in "The Great Patriotic War," so their use in the current Russo-Ukrainian War is certain.

These barges were escorted or armed, see:

The Volga Flotilla Russian River Gunboats
worldnavalships.com/forums/thread.…

6/ Image
See also this Russian barges in WW2 wiki entry:

Dnieper Flotilla
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnieper_F…
7/ Image
And this entry.

Soviet Riverine Gunboats and Monitors
8/

naval-encyclopedia.com/ww2/soviet/riv… Image
The logistics of the Russo-Ukrainian War is proving to be an extended WW2 military history final exam for a lot of Western intelligence officers & analysts.

These folks already have an "incomplete" for WW2 mechanized logistics.

Let's see how well they will do with barges.🙄

9/
Hopefully modern Western analysts will do better with Russian barge traffic than the ones in SHAEF during the Normandy campaign.

10/End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 18
You don't beat the Russian Army by killing its tanks & artillery tubes.

You beat the Russian army by destroying its trucks, trains & depots.

Ukraine is doing just that for a lot of reasons.
1/
This is a reason why:

"I am tempted to make a slightly exaggerated statement: that logistics is all of war-making, except shooting the guns, releasing the bombs, and firing the torpedoes."

- ADM Lynde D. McCormick, USN

2/ Image
And this is a reason why:

"There is nothing more common than to find considerations of supply affecting the strategic lines of a campaign and a war."
- Carl von Clausewitz

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 15
Alright folks, let's strap in for the most important logistical thread🧵of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

This thread is about how much artillery ammunition the Russian Army has left over from the Cold War and what shape it is in.

It's going to be a ride.
1/
Lets start with what is know open source and the perils of Russian daily shell counts.

The Covert Cabal channel did an estimate of 10K shells a day and quoted a RUSI document saying 7,176 shells a day.

2/
How Many Artillery Shells Does Russia Have Left?
Individual day shellfire rates vary a lot, & in early June, Ukraine was on the wrong end of a 45K to 1K or 2K shell ratio in Donbas per General Zaluzhny (Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - UNIAN)

3/
unian.net/war/ukrainskie…
Read 41 tweets
Aug 14
Military packaging is a subset of military logistics, & thus, packaging engineering matters in war.

It reflects how a culture prioritizes protecting its people both in and out of uniform.

This is video shows 1984 era 120mm mortar shell packaging delivered to Ukrainian
1/
This is a Russian Army artillery packaging at an ammo supply point in Ukraine.

2/
And so is this, albeit chewed up by combat.



3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 11
This is a video of a WW2 Office of Strategic Services & Office of Scientific Research & Development test conducted at the US Army Claiborne Polk Military Railroad between 03/08/1944 & 03/10/1944 showing how much rail damage is required to derail a train
1/
Now, compare that video to these GMLRS strikes on the Antonovsky railway bridge.🤨🤔

2/
And for a "compare and contrast," see this Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian Railway on 20 May 2022.

Note also the Ukrainian "cross tracking" problem with the Russian strike.
3/
Read 11 tweets
Aug 11
"Rumor control has it" that Ukraine netted some Russian S-300 surface to air missile batteries in Belarus.

Lukashenko be like 👀👀

1/
An adviser to Zelensky’s Chief of Staff stated the following:

2/
And this is what @OAlexanderDK said Russia had parked at Zyabrovka airbase in Belarus back in February 2022

3/
Read 6 tweets
Aug 9
This Ukrainian strike in Crimea should be no surprise.

The Neptune anti-ship cruise missile has a back up GPS/Inertial guidance capability for land attack capability like the US Harpoon.

1/
Jason Lancaster's Cimsec article give a nice map of Neptune operating out of Odessa.

170 nm is ~280 km.

2/
@Orion__int gave a much more comprehensive Neptune footprint map back in January 2022, before the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine.

3/
Read 9 tweets

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