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Aug 17 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
There was no recent push for Ukrainian membership in NATO. Sergei Lavrov had no idea Russia was planning on invading, whereas Putin wrote, "true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia" last July. The war was about Ukraine.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/playin… Image
You can cherry pick statements from Russian officials to justify various arguments, but in 2021 there was a clear shift in how Russian officials talked about Ukraine, which emphasized that Ukraine was not a sovereign country and that its leaders were illegitimate "vassals."
Ukrainian officials were publicly floating concessions in March, including no NATO membership and military limitations. If that had been Russia's ultimate goal, Putin would have accepted them. His goals were more ambitious.
ft.com/content/7b341e…
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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 18
Russian air defenses are operating in Sevastopol. A Russian source claims they have shot down a Ukrainian UAV.
t.me/chp_sevastopol…
t.me/mig41/20035
t.me/voenkorKotenok… ImageImageImageImage
2/
The sound of explosions in Sevastopol. Likely from Russian air defenses. 3/
t.me/hueviyherson/2…
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 18
An ammunition depot is on fire in Belgorod.
t.me/bazabazon/12849
Another video of the ammo depot in Belgorod. 2/
t.me/shot_shot/42838
Another video of the ammo depot in Belgorod. 3/
t.me/zhest_belgorod…
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 16
One of the themes from Russian Telegram channels who follow the war is the juxtaposition of the high profile Army Games and defense expo in Moscow while the Russian military struggles in Ukraine. In this case, it appears few precautions were taken at this ammo depot.
The Russian military is facing serious manpower and equipment issues in Ukraine, and, meanwhile, some soldiers are taking part in a competition and new, high-tech weapons are being displayed that aren't in service. There is a perception that the Russian MoD isn't doing enough.
Seems likely that there will be a strong sense of resentment from Russians fighting in Ukraine for the senior leadership of the Russian military once this is over. Especially since many units are relying on crowdsourcing for equipment and UAVs, instead of from the military.
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 16
Video of an explosion at a Russian ammo depot in the town of Maiske in Crimea. Russian officials have blamed sabotage.
ft.com/content/3fc946…
t.me/bazabazon/12802
"A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the operation, said that an elite Ukrainian military unit operating behind enemy lines was responsible for the blasts." 2/
nytimes.com/live/2022/08/1…
Another video of the Russian ammo depot in Maiske, Crimea that was targeted today. 2/
t.me/bazabazon/12804
Read 9 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 15
Video of Iran’s exhibit at the Army 2022 defense expo in Russia.
t.me/topwar_officia…
They have a model of the Iranian Mojaher-6 UAV. 2/
Video of OG-29 and TBG-29V rockets for the RPG-29. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Aug 15
The Director of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugaev said that Russia exported more than $14 billion worth of arms in 2021.
t.me/rian_ru/174453
Shugaev also claimed that Russia's arms export portfolio has reached $57 billion after signing $16 billion worth of contracts so far in 2022. I would bet this includes many contracts that will never be executed. 2/
ria.ru/20220815/kontr…
He also said that there are a number of cases of countries reexporting Russian arms to Ukraine in violation of the terms of the contracts, most notably the deliveries of Mi-17V-5 helicopters purchased for Afghanistan. 3/
ria.ru/20220815/verto…
Read 7 tweets

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