Thread by @HN_Schlottman

1/ TASS: Executive director of Kurganmashzavod (KMZ) appears to have been asked by the Russian MOD to resume production of "earlier generation BMPs", likely meaning BMP-2's (overhauls and possibly new builds). Currently, they produce mainly BMP-3's/BMD-4M's. Possible explanation

2/ Original sources here:
tass.ru/interviews/154…
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
Obligatory caveat: Russian state media.

3/ Last run of new build BMP-2's for Russian military was 2005-2006, last for export 2002. Spare parts production continued to maintain existing vehicles. Upgrade programs also existed, the most significant/successful being the BMP-2M.

4/ The BMP-2M includes the Berezhok module and generally the UTD-23 engine, improving firepower and mobility. Algeria purchased Berezhok module for its BMP-2's starting in 2005. Russia began its procurement later 2017-2018, reaching operational status around 2020.

5/ KMZ however may be (possibly) be reluctant about devoting resources away from BMP-3 production for several reasons. Foremost, the cost of reopening large scale production of the BMP-2 or greatly expanding the 2M may be prohibitive.

6/ Quote from Petyr Tyukov "But one must understand that the price of such products will be much higher than for new mass-produced vehicles that are produced according to plan, such as the BMP-3 and BMD-4M."

7/ Although the BMP-2 would be simpler and cheaper than the BMP-3 once production is set up, the matter of reestablishing the production line with the machinery and expertise needed is complex, time consuming, and costly.

8/ $ at play: The BMP-2 export market is primarily third world countries. Example: Yemen bought 188 BMP-2s for $40 million in 2005 ($58 million inflation adjusted). $308k per unit (assuming the cost did not include much in the way of support/spare parts).

9/ The BMP-3 has several wealthy operators, such as the UAE and Kuwait. Russia itself perhaps pays roughly $1.1 million per base BMP-3 based on state orders as of 2021. There's also the spare parts; UAE pays $10-15 million annually for its ~600 BMP-3's as of 2019.

10/ Russia's MOD surely knows this and the BMP-3's general superiority over the base BMP-2 (~100 BMP-2M's in Russian service being approximately equal in combat value). This raises the question of why they might need more BMP-2's than 3's at this point.

11/ @oryxspioenkop data as a baseline suggests BMP-3 losses (~132, 20% of Russia's existing BMP-3's) may have been higher proportionally than BMP-2 losses (~400, 10-15% of Russia's existing BMP-2's). This could be due to a variety of factors of course.

@oryxspioenkop 12/ KMZ BMP-3 production maxed out at roughly 250 a year, both export and state defense contracts. Usually, it was less than this. Regardless, they may have the ability to replace most BMP-3 losses thus far, assuming @oryxspioenkop data is about 70% of all actual BMP-3 losses.

@oryxspioenkop 13/ But without restarting BMP-2 production, reactivating BMP-2's from reserves, and increasing the pace of 2M upgrades, replacing BMP-2 losses may actually be more difficult that the BMP-3 with KMZ's existing production set up.

@oryxspioenkop 14/ Why don't Russian units simply upgrade to the BMP-3 after losing their BMP-2's? There are (possibly) training/logistical constraints on that. A unit that previously used BMP-2's would need some amount of training to transition.

@oryxspioenkop 15/ A BMP-3 is more complicated. Its armament is widely different than the BMP-2. It also requires more maintenance. Although the BMP-3 is more capable of taking on the latest NATO vehicles, Ukraine is largely operating older equipment, including large numbers of its own BMP-2s

@oryxspioenkop 16/ The (possible) calculation Russia MOD is although there may be greater short term costs for reactivating BMP-2 production, in the longer term dynamics of the war, it is more cost effective to continue fielding large number of the older BMP-2 than adopt the BMP-3 army wide

@oryxspioenkop 17/ How serious the proposal to restart BMP-2 production is remains to be seen. The fact KMZ thinks it may be a possibility made it worth addressing though. The fact this is being considered initially seemed far fetched, but I've attempted to put forth a possible reasoning.

@oryxspioenkop 18/ Sources: dfnc.ru/suhoputnaya/ek…
globalsecurity.org/military/world…
anna-news.info/vopros-vozobno…
bmpd.livejournal.com/2517253.html
armyrecognition.com/defense_news_a…