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Aug 18 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Remove Samuelson.
Below are #Lindy to add:

Alexandrov, Kolmogorov et al: Mathematics.

Feller: Probability Theory

Landau and Lipshitz: Course of Th Physics (multivol) ***

Cover and Thomas: Elements of Information Theory

Karatsas and Shreve: Brownian M and Stochastic Calculus
2/
 + Press et Al "Numerical Recipes in C" on list taught me the most abt numerical methods, (intractable differential equations, num integration) although I have never programmed in C.

+ Alchian & Allen, Universal Economics (formerly University Ec) best for econ reasoning.
Also irreplaceable:
+ Revuz and Yor: Continuous Martingales and Brownian Motion
+ Samorodnitsky & Taqqu: Stable Non-Gaussian Random Processes
+Embrechts et al.: Modelling Extremal Events
+ CR Rao's Linear Inference... Image

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More from @nntaleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Aug 14
BICYCLING, TRANSPORTATION, and CARDIO METRICS
1/n
 You don't have to travel to ride a bicycle. I tried to ride it for transportation (day), *not exercise*, for 1 month and covered ~450 km in hilly terrain.
2/n
 Heart rate is in fact *on average* in Z2, but with a STD of .092. Roads have hills so it is ludicrous to aim at constant HR. [Note flaws in "research" on Z2].
You get the same results living in hilly terrain (Mediterranean); in Sardinia centenarians climb hills like goats.
3) These are the 2 bikes [in 2 different locations]. One carbon, one aluminum; noticed no difference in spite of a >3x price.
So you don't have to cross Syberia once every 3 years; just ride locally under the condition of 1) wearing regular clothes, 2) melting bike with lifestyle
Read 5 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Aug 9
I like Ron Paul; overinterventionism is bad, printing money is bad.
BUT
Since the early 1900s: standards of living have risen yuuugely, > 1 billion exited famine, medicine saves lives & until 2008 holders of fixed income were paid for inflation w/something called interest.
2) So we should improve the system, make people more accountable, etc. But I failed to see the "downhill".

They say science is hard because of nuances. Everything is hard because of nuances.
3) And interventionism, say to stop states from having slavery or prevent Hitler from putting people in gas chambers is not just good policy; it is a MORAL imperative.

As I wrote in AF, it is like medicine. You use it to save lives not for ordinary matters.
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Jul 20
Statistical illiteracy.
Info is that 20 per 100K have some "serious" side effect (not fatality) *after* vaccines (across age groups).
Assuming due to vaxx, compare to ~2-5K per 100K unvaxxed hospitalized owing to Covid.

[Sent to me by antivaxx #idiot]

2) Now regardless of your computation of the risks for unvaxxed and Simpson's eff. [vaxxed are older, infection rate can be higher, etc.], it remains that we are talking 2 order of magnitude difference.
3) Note: serious does not necessarily mean hospitalization. And, critically, includes people who got sick for other reasons.
Read 5 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Jul 17
HOW FINANCE IS HARD
Wheat is trading below where it was when the Ukraine war started.
Never fall for first order narratives.
{#FatTony made his fortune shorting oil after the First Gulf War.}
2) The mechanism: overadjustment to shortages. $$ to produce substitutes elsewhere, plus adaptation away from expensive product.
1973 oil shock led to slow adaptation [speed limits, smaller cars] => 1980s glut; today things are much, much faster.

Now watch microchips.
3) There is already a glut in microchips.

reuters.com/technology/com…
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Jul 16
Hope du Jour: the electric-assist bicycle has the potential to turn every hilly city into Amsterdam* **.

* It is vastly more energy efficient than any other form of individual transportation.
** Disclaimer: I live in hilly places & only use regular bicycles. For now.
2) Note: An electric car (say a Tesla) has between 600 to 1100 the horsepower of a 500W electric-assist bicycle.
So why does one pay sales tax on an E-bicycle in NY AND get a tax credit for an electric car?
3) Actually there is a proposal for tax cuts for e-bicycles in the f. package. But, curiously, not for regular bicycles which are even more env. friendly.
Read 4 tweets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb Profile picture
Jul 5
Mini-Symposium [thread]
Friends, I have to write a foreword for
@holland_tom's Dominion, as punishment for listening to @TheRestHistory at the (profane) gym.

1- Is Xrstnty the 1st "religion" to establish the separation holy-profane?

2- Is it the 1rst to eliminate hierarchies?
3- When did the distinction between Judean [יהודה] and Jewish [יהודי] appear?
4- Adding from here: how to transcend the verbalism about "religion".
A lot of modern Judaism comes from Christianity. The sequence Judaism -> Christianity -> Islam is not entirely in one direction.

medium.com/incerto/we-don…
Read 12 tweets

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