Some thoughts on this force generation effort below.🧵
The Kremlin is scrambling to find any reinforcements to maintain its prolonged war in Ukraine, but these efforts are unlikely to generate combat ready or cohesive force necessary for the Kremlin’s goal of seizing all of Ukraine.
Russian “volunteer” units are likely deploying piecemeal groups of soldiers to reinforce specific areas, and not deploying in their full organic structures.
Russian reservists and members of “volunteer” units are reporting that Russian authorities have failed to deliver on promised benefits and pay.
Russian authorities have reportedly placed recruits with no experience into positions as commanding officers at the company level or higher, failed to provide sufficient food, ammunition, or cigarettes to soldiers, failed to provide for the funeral arrangements of volunteer...
soldiers killed in action, and dumped soldiers in remote locations in Russia without transport home once their contracts expired. Several volunteers who have already returned home from Ukraine stated that they felt “deceived” and treated worse than regular contract soldiers.
VK-based milblogger Vasily Petrovich described regionally formed volunteer units as the best way to ”get into a hospital bed or into the grave,” as these units do not have financial support outside of what is provided by their unnamed sponsors.
Russian federal subjects (regions) continue to announce the formation of new volunteer units, however Russian media is likely misrepresenting the percentage fill of these units.
Russian opposition outlet Mediazona revealed that several federal subjects are misrepresenting their progress toward recruiting volunteers.
1. We expanded Russian assessed advances to Inzhenerne and Ukrainske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, given that the Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 17 that Russian forces mined Inzhenerne and Ukrainske.
2. We expanded Russian assessed advances to the northwest of Spartak, Donetsk Oblast, given that the Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 17 that Russian forces had unspecified “partial success” in advancing in the direction of Opytne. Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
1. We recoded Solodke, Donetsk Oblast, and the western portion of Stepne, Donetsk Oblast as assessed Russian advances given a Ukrainian General Staff report on August 16 stating Russian forces are conducting offensive and assault operations in the area with “partial success.”
NASA FIRMS data from the past 24 hours additionally observed heat anomalies fires in the rear of Ukrainian-held territory northwest of Solodke, which would be consistent with a Russian advance into Solodke.
1 We recoded the KNAUF factory near Soledar, Donetsk Oblast as assessed Russian advances given geoconfirmed video footage posted on August 14 and 15 showing Russian forces operating at the factory on an unspecified date.
1. We recoded previous Russian claims approaching the east of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast to assessed advance given the Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 13 that Russian forces attempted an assault in the direction of Krasnohorivka. Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
. We expanded Russian advances to Storozhove and towards Novosilka in Donetsk Oblast given that the Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 13 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the direction of Storozhove – Novosilka. Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
2.We expanded Russian advances towards Velyka Komyshuvakha east of Barabashivka in Kharkiv Oblast after observing new geolocated combat footage. Sources:
2.We recoded Oleksandrivka in Kherson Oblast as Russian advances after observing Russian forces in the village on July 19 in footage posted on July 23. This is the latest visual evidence we have observed from Oleksandrivka.