UK and European gas & power prices continue rising to truly scary levels.
The Government will have to act on a very large scale to support households, especially those on lower incomes - and also probably small businesses.
The scale of this shock is hard to overstate.
For example - this is the forward price for UK baseload electricity this winter. Shown over the last 5 years to illustrate the scale of what's happening:
This not just another energy shock / cost of living squeeze. It's a once in a generation threat to the solvency of many households and businesses that could scar the economy for years to come
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Governments need to send the signal now that businesses do not need to lay people off as a result of this disruption - decisions are being made right now in businesses around the world
Working out exactly how to do this will be difficult and will require setting aside a lot of normal controls on how public money is spent. Will need to be delivered through banks
There are plenty of ways to avoid a WTO cliff edge in Dec 2020 without having completed an FTA - various patches can be negotiated and will be in everyone's interests. Very different from a No Deal exit
For example you could negotiate a bare bones 'Beta' trade deal covering goods, with continuity ensured in areas like energy and transport, ongoing equivalence regime for financial services, similar for data. Followed by continuing negotiation of a more comprehensive FTA
Anyone who thinks either side will contemplate a damaging "cliff edge" has learned nothing from the revealed preferences of the last year
A thread on where we are on Brexit, focusing on the choice facing the EU, and why serious engagement with these UK proposals is sensible.
Bottom line: if these proposals die there is a small chance of a better outcome for the EU (a Corbyn deal that keeps UK in customs union) but much bigger chance of No Deal (disastrous for Ireland) or the UK voting to Remain (disastrous for all long term).
Why? There are 4 potential final outcomes:
1) A deal based on further iterations of latest UK proposals, either now or after a Conservative election victory. Forces some difficult concessions on customs for the EU.
Theresa May won't look quite so hopeless once whoever takes over confronts the same Parliamentary arithmetic, EU realities and sour national mood
The Brexiteer candidates (ie Boris and Dominic Raab) in particular should be very careful what they say during the campaign - temptation clearly to talk tough but probably odds on that their first action will have to be requesting another extension from the EU...
And I hope they are thinking very carefully about whether they want to fight an election squeezed between Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage
This house price to income issue is a very difficult public policy issue. In a world of lower global interest rates it won't be solved by building more homes. Well meaning loan to income limits introduced post crisis are now effectively rationing access to mortgages
Effectively you can only buy a home in some areas if you have a lot of capital or a very high income. Lots of people could afford to buy but are capped out by loan to income limits on mortgages that are much lower than pre crisis
These regulations are well meaning but are predicated on protecting people from a hypothetical future increase in interest rates back to more "normal" levels. If (as seems very likely) there is little prospect of that happening any time soon we are just rationing mortgage finance