Chair of the UK Council of Economic Advisers 2010-2015. BlackRock Portfolio Manager 2015-2024. Economist, investor, policy wonk, dad.
Jul 30 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I'm normally a big defender of the OBR as an institution but the timing of Richard Hughes' letter is an error that plays into Labour's fundamentally untrue narrative. He has allowed normal in-year spending pressures to be turned into a political scoring point. 1/
The fact that in-year pressures on the reserve are slightly larger than usual isn't surprising given the scale of recent inflation and the unusual pressures of the last few years. Some have also been deliberately crystallised early by Reeves' decisions, eg the Rwanda costs. 2/
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Incredibly important from @NeilDotObrien - in the end demographics is basically everything, and we can't understand the last few decades without understanding how it has driven first falling and then since 2010 rising demands on public spending.
Governments need to send the signal now that businesses do not need to lay people off as a result of this disruption - decisions are being made right now in businesses around the world
Dec 17, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
There are plenty of ways to avoid a WTO cliff edge in Dec 2020 without having completed an FTA - various patches can be negotiated and will be in everyone's interests. Very different from a No Deal exit
For example you could negotiate a bare bones 'Beta' trade deal covering goods, with continuity ensured in areas like energy and transport, ongoing equivalence regime for financial services, similar for data. Followed by continuing negotiation of a more comprehensive FTA
Oct 4, 2019 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A thread on where we are on Brexit, focusing on the choice facing the EU, and why serious engagement with these UK proposals is sensible.
Bottom line: if these proposals die there is a small chance of a better outcome for the EU (a Corbyn deal that keeps UK in customs union) but much bigger chance of No Deal (disastrous for Ireland) or the UK voting to Remain (disastrous for all long term).
May 16, 2019 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Theresa May won't look quite so hopeless once whoever takes over confronts the same Parliamentary arithmetic, EU realities and sour national mood
The Brexiteer candidates (ie Boris and Dominic Raab) in particular should be very careful what they say during the campaign - temptation clearly to talk tough but probably odds on that their first action will have to be requesting another extension from the EU...
Apr 9, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This house price to income issue is a very difficult public policy issue. In a world of lower global interest rates it won't be solved by building more homes. Well meaning loan to income limits introduced post crisis are now effectively rationing access to mortgages
Effectively you can only buy a home in some areas if you have a lot of capital or a very high income. Lots of people could afford to buy but are capped out by loan to income limits on mortgages that are much lower than pre crisis
Oct 5, 2017 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
A thread on some policies that could have been announced at Tory conference to demonstrate new ideas and fresh answers to big questions:
1) big investment in T levels and an end to the presumption of 3 year university degrees - take on the universities, new careers, lower cost
