Russians fired artillery along the line of contact in the Kharkiv area, targeting civilians and Ukrainian forces, and the shelling killed several civilians. Ukrainian defenders repelled an attack on Pytomnyk (1). Russians used MLRS to lay mines in Verkhnii and Staryi Saltiv.
Russians are attempting to expand their area of control south and west in the Izyum area. Ukrainians repelled attacks on Karnaukhivka (2), Virnopillya (3), Nova Dmytrivka (4), Dibrovne (5), and Dolyna (6). Russians heavily shelled the forested area around Mazanivka (A).
In the Siversk area, Russians attacked Ivano-Darivka without success (7).
Ukrainian defenders repelled an attack on Vyimka (8). This town is heavily fortified and vitally important to the defense of this area. Russians have attacked Vyimka several times over the past few weeks but failed to create the foothold necessary for a sustained attack.
The Bakhmut area has a lot of heavy fighting.
There is heavy fighting around Yakovlivka (9). Russians are attempting to flank the right side of the town while simultaneously attacking from the south. Russians have captured around 10% of Yakovlivka. Ukrainians hold the high ground just north, stymying the Russian assault.
Russians are attacking Soledar from the east (10) and south (11). The attack from the east is the more significant threat to the town. There is heavy ongoing fighting, and there are rumors that Russia has captured several Ukrainian defensive positions, but without provided proof.
Ukraine has successfully repulsed all attacks on the east side of Bakhmutske, but Russians gained a foothold in the south, and now they are trying to break through the defensive line (12).
Russians are attacking Bakhmut (13), but I do not believe this attack is meant to take ground but rather occupy and shell the Ukrainian forces.
South of Bakhmut, Russians are trying to bypass Vesela Dolyna, which has proven to be heavily defended, by attacking directly towards Bakhmut from Klynove (14). Ukrainian defenders repulsed this attempt for the second day in a row.
Today, Russia tried attacking Kodema from Vershyna (16), but the defenders repulsed the attack. They regrouped and attacked Zaitseve to the west instead (15). The fighting is ongoing.
Russians are attacking Kodema from the west (17), and the combat is intense but Ukrainian defenders are holding their positions.
Russian forces attacked Mayorsk for the third time in the past four days (18). Ukrainians repelled the attack. Ukraine is in a fortified trainyard, so it should be easy to defend.
In the Donetsk area, Russian forces are trying to push towards Optyne (19), and while they made some minor progress on August 17th, they have not had success since.
Russians are still trying to capture Pisky (20). A Ukrainian claims that Ukraine controls the town “situationally” and “conditionally.” I am under the impression that Ukrainian officers believe they could retake Pisky if given the necessary resources (heavy weapons).
However, I do not think they will get what they need. I believe Ukraine is saving these resources for a potential offensive. In the meantime, Russia is struggling to take control of the town, and they have tried bypassing it to attack Pervomaiske.
Today Russians posted videos of Ukrainian defensive positions they claim to have captured around Marinka. Assuming the videos are recent and in Marinka, they appear to be in an open field, which means they would be fighting through the farmland south of Marinka (21).
From prior reports, I know Russia is moving through these fields because the urban combat in Marinka itself is too intense.
South of Donetsk, Ukrainian defenders repelled a Russian assault on Novomykhailivka (22).
Russia is heavily shelling the Zaporizhzhia area, and the Ukrainian counter-battery fire is slowly destroying Russian artillery systems. Russian artillery critically wounded an 8 year old girl in Shevchenkivske (the highlighted marker, note how far from the front line).
There was quite a lot of artillery fire around the towns of Dorozhnyanka and Kostyantynivka (B). Ukraine has been trying to capture these two towns for a few weeks. I did not see any news of a Ukrainian attack in this area, but maybe they did.
In the Kherson/Mykolaiv area, Russia attacked in the direction of Bila Krynytsya from Lozove (23), which means Ukraine almost certainly lost Andriivka and Lozove. There is ongoing fighting. Russia has expended great resources crushing the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Inhulets.
Russians tried to attack in the direction of Tavrijske, but Ukrainian defenders destroyed this attack and sent the Russian attackers fleeing in a panic (24).
Tonight, Russia claims to have shot down drones near Yevpatoriya and Sevastopol.
I want to start by saying I don’t have access to official documents or meetings, so I’m piecing together their motivations based on what I observe and logical reasoning. Keep that in mind as you read on.
This year, Russia's goals are threefold. First, to capture the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Second, to capture Kostyantynivka. Third, to capture Slovyansk.
Each of these goals has necessary steps. To capture the bank in Zaporizhzhia, you must first capture Orikhiv. To capture Slovyansk, you must first capture Lyman. You could argue that to capture Kostyantynivka, you must first capture Chasiv Yar.
These goals are very ambitious and, honestly, impossible to fully achieve. So let’s think of them as aspirations and focus instead on how close Russia might get to reaching them.
Ukraine launched several counterattacks in the Verbove and Ternove areas of Zaporizhzhia. They were quite successful, pushing Russia out of several settlements and possibly capturing some. This also threatened Russia’s main supply route to the west. Because of this, Russia has to do two things: divert resources from their main attack to stabilize the area and try to recapture this ground to keep pushing west toward Orikhiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine gains time to strengthen defenses, plan their strategy, and prepare for more counterattacks, something Russia worries about given their timeline.
This has already delayed Russia’s offensive by months, and it will take many more weeks for them to regain their previous position.
Recently, Russia tried an armored assault on Orikhiv, which failed badly (A). They also tried to advance through Mala Tokmachka (B) before, but that failed too. A direct attack on Orikhiv is unlikely to succeed without heavy losses, so Russia wants to avoid it unless they have no choice. Still, based on past experience, they might end up having to take the town this way.
The military analysis of Iran has been the absolute worst military analysis I have ever seen in my entire life.
There have been times where I listen to some "expert" where almost every word they say in the entire interview is factually wrong. Some of these people are so wrong that I feel like you could have a big box of words and reach in and draw them randomly and it be more factual.
To prove my point, I just asked a LLM to analyze the form of a normal military interview on cable news and using strictly randomly generated words and no access to the actual news please give me a report on what's going on in Ian (unironically, this is what LLMs are good at, probably, just lying about shit):::
From an operational standpoint, the expanding American strike corridor may complicate Iran’s layered coastal defenses, which could scatter missile batteries inland.
At the tactical level, the Iranian drone screen might disrupt a forward U.S. maneuver package, which could stall momentum along the maritime axis.
From the broader battlefield geometry, the concentrated American carrier posture may pressure Iran’s southern command network, which could trigger rapid repositioning of defensive units.
Right now on the ground, the reinforced Iranian coastal belt might absorb the initial U.S. probing attacks, which could slow the opening phase of the campaign.
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.