Because I'm not a complete fool, I don't dabble in FX trading (other than consistently buying gold weakness during dollar strength).
But were I a gambling man, I would look to short USD if it rises much more, and go long the DM (Deutsche Mark).
Huh? 🤔
1/
Of course, the Deutsche Mark is long-since kaput.
But I’ve long suspected it will suddenly rise from the ashes, likely in the form of a “Nordic Euro”.
And when the Germans inevitably relent and make nice with Russia, the EUR will be a proxy for the DM soon to come.
2/
Meanwhile, as soon as the rest of the world comes to grips with the reality that the #MotherOfAllProxyArmies in Ukraine has been soundly defeated, I believe it will not only signal the end of NATO and the EU, but also have a dramatically deleterious effect on the USD.
3/
All that said, this is not trading advice, but merely musings on the possibilities.
Do your own due diligence; be smart and own some gold and silver against the fiat currency depreciations that will continue until they all revert to their intrinsic value of zero.
4/end
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The more I research this "Russia Is Imploding" "study" produced by Sonnenfeld et al. from Yale, the more it is revealed as a poorly argued, logically fallacious propaganda piece, and Sonnenfeld as an amateurish (but ubiquitously published!) #EmpirePropagandist.
1/
In consequence of my nascent research into this embarrassing (for the authors) “study”, the topic of western fantasies of Russia’s imminent economic collapse has jumped to the top of my future blog post list, and I will be working exclusively on that in coming days.
2/
But I just have to share two comical gems I’ve stumbled upon after just a bit of casual research into the coordinated roll out of this story into western media in recent days – a sure sign we’re dealing here with an intelligence agency-produced propaganda undertaking.
3/
The voluminous series of threads linked above are all based on alleged “personal accounts” and “intercepted phone calls” of Russian soldiers.
Of course, this “intelligence treasure trove” emanates solely from Ukrainian sources.
2/
And, in a series of stories almost as impressive as the tales woven by the famous WW2 spy Juan Pujol Garcia, the full compendium of Russian military and logistical ineptitude, senseless brutality, and low soldier morale are conveniently confirmed in exhaustive detail.
3/
My reactions to Gonzalo Lira’s commentary on Mike Pompeo’s recent “Three Lighthouses for Liberty” speech – a brazen compendium of transparent lies and cynical projection:
I am not yet persuaded Pompeo is “speaking for the entire American foreign policy establishment.” I continue to believe there is a powerful contingent of realist-leaning wiser heads, at least in the Pentagon.
It remains to be seen whether or not these would-be Praetorian Guards of American hegemony have or will yet attain decisive policy-making power within the US government. If they continue ascendant, I believe they will be forcefully opposed at a critical juncture.
3/
Over the course of the past several weeks we have learned the following:
* US intelligence operatives and special forces have been deployed in Ukraine throughout the ongoing war.
* These US troops are *directly* involved in attacking Russian targets.
1/
* US-provided intelligence of various types, combined with US “hands-on” training and (almost certainly) even direct operation of US advanced weaponry, has resulted in:
- the killing of Russian field commanders
- (allegedly, but not yet confirmed) the sinking of the Moskva
2/
- the terrorist-style attacks on Russian cities
- very recent attacks on Russian ammo depots
To emphasize: US military personnel are DIRECTLY involved in battlefield strikes against Russian forces and terrorist strikes against Russian civilians.
3/
Given the myopic focus of the "Ukraine is winning" crowd on the alleged (and fallacious) Russian "defeat" at Kiev, I am reminded of how, during the US Civil War, Abraham Lincoln was ceaselessly frustrated with his early cadre of generals.
1/
Much like the vast majority of current western military “experts”, Lincoln’s early generals were illogically focused on the objective of “taking Richmond” – the capital of the Confederacy. This obsession dominated the strategic focus of the Union for most of the war.
2/
Lincoln, on the other hand – notwithstanding there is no evidence he ever read von Clausewitz – intuitively and correctly understood that it was not a city, nor any piece of territory, per se, that was the objective upon which his West Point-trained generals should focus.
3/