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Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Aug 17

Here is a cross-Channel tale of two inflation rates and the differing French and British Govt approaches to the cost of living. In sum, French households are much better off than the British. For now. Are the French grateful? No. Are Britons jealous? Yes 1/

The annual inflation rate in Britain is running at 10.1%. In France, it’s circa 6.6% . Brits face average energy bills of £4,000 a year, 300% higher than a year ago. In France, gas prices have been frozen since November and electricity price rises are capped this year at 4% 2/

Both Govt's have introduced costly measures to help struggling households. In theory, the annual cost is similar €41bn in France; £37bn in the UK 3/

Read 16 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Aug 11

Here is a thread with five predictions on the trajectory of the EU's support for Ukraine & the implications of Russia's invasion for the EU. Also relevant for the UK. Medium to longer-term 1/

Prediction 1:

The EU will remain publicly committed to Ukraine, but disagreement between 🇩🇪🇫🇷 on one side & 🇵🇱🇱🇻🇪🇪🇱🇹🇫🇮🇸🇪 on the other as to whether the war can be “won” - & the escalation that could entail - will mean a tapering of sanctions & military support this & next yr 2/

This doesn't mean “no more”sanctions against 🇷🇺 or weapons for 🇺🇦. 🇪🇺 will continue to climb to top of its sanctions ladder by end 2023. But additional measures will now be harder to agree

Instead Bxl will now emphasise other legs of 🇺🇦 support - esp €bn & accession talks 3/

Read 17 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jul 30

“I’m waiting for the Truss-mobile to move in to No 10,” they said. “I find it strange because it’s so clear in my head that she would be a flipping disaster but they’re buying it. I’m fed up.”

Indeed thetimes.co.uk/article/even-b…

Sunak, they suggested, was a victim of a “bit of latent racism” from members. “Someone told me, ‘I’m not ready for the brown one yet’ ,” they said.

The loyalist MP said there was another factor at play. “I think he’s almost too good to be true — people are a bit jealous of somebody so competent. They don’t want the slickness, the smoothness,” they said.

Read 4 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jul 22

A French plot to ruin Brits’ holidays? Hardly. Why should France want to discourage UK tourists? The long queues at Dover port today are the product of a) Brexit and b) bad luck.
1/

French officials say they had planned staffing of all of their 12 border posts in Dover from 8.30am today because they knew there would be a deluge of tourists for the first weekend of the UK school holiday. 2/

A signal fault in the Channel delayed the arrival of some French frontier police officers for an hour. By the time they arrived the queues had built to epic proportions. It took until afternoon to clear the backlog. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jul 20

How is the minority Fr Govt managing in its first efforts to govern? This is a pivotal week. A €20bn package of anti-inflation measures is being voted line by line in National Assembly. Despite dire predictions by the usual suspects in UK media, the govt is making progress 1/

Three elements in package (out of 20) have already been accepted by large majorities. The Left has howled insults and mostly voted against, with some moderate Leftists abstaining. The Right and Far Right have complained and then abstained (although some have voted in favour) 2/

The more contested elements of package – such as how to reduce pump prices of diesel/petrol – won’t be reached until Fri. The Govt may have to incorporate one or two right-wing amendments but should broadly get its way. It then goes to Sénat & back to assembly early next month 3/

Read 8 tweets

Mujtaba Rahman

@Mij_Europe

Jul 14

@EmmanuelMacron

In his first full-scale interview since his re-election in April – and since losing his parliamentary majority last month- President @EmmanuelMacron today warned that France must restrict its energy consumption or face a “difficult” winter 1/

In a one hour live televised interview for France’s national day. Macron said he would be presenting a national plan for “energy sobriety” to confront the consequences of a cut in Russian gas supplies to Europe and a Ukraine war which “will last a long time” 2/

Russia is using gas exports as a “weapon of war”, Macron said. “We must prepare for a situation where we have to cope without them completely” 3/

Read 8 tweets

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