Thread by @anders_aslund

After Ukraine has bombed Crimea & Belgorod, panic spreads among ordinary Russians. It must be felt in the Kremlin as well. Therefore, Putin is now softening & seems to prepare negotiations. The question to Ukrainians now is now what they should demand.

1. As President @ZelenskyyUa rightly has insisted, Ukraine must recover all its territories, Crimea & the whole of Donbas.

2. Ukraine needs credible security guarantees. As Putin's disregard of all international agreements show, the only credible security guarantee is NATO membership plus a strong national defense.

3. Russia must pay war reparations for the probably $300 billion of damages it has caused Ukraine (direct damages $110bn, $70bn less GDP in 2022 & probably 50,000 Ukrainians killed). The West should facilitate this by confiscating the Russian Central Bank's $316 bn in the West.

4. Since the 2014 war started from Russia's naval base in Sevastopol, Russia needs to evacuate the base forever.

5. Probably 2 million Ukrainians have left for or been evacuated or imprisoned in Russia. All Ukrainians who so desire and all the children should be returned to Ukraine and get rid of enforced Russian citizenships.

6. The thousands of Russian soldiers and officials who have committed serious war crimes should be prosecuted in the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which can finally fully serve its purpose.

7. All Western sanctions on Russia must be maintained until Russia has fulfilled all these and other reasonable conditions. No easing of sanctions until Russia has fully conceded.

8. To facilitate an early and beneficial peace, it is vital that the US and Europe deliver all the arms they can to Ukraines so that it can end the war. This war can only end with Ukrainian victory. Russian victory would mean a future war on the West.