Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday Weekly Update--A little bit of World War I and World War II in historical reflection to what we are seeting today in Ukraine.

So, forward movement basically stopped on the front line, though its different in the east and south. The single most obvious development this week is the petering out of Russian forward movement in Donbas. For three days now there has been nothing

Indeed since the Russian 'pause' ended 5 weeks ago, their advances are barely visible on the map. Here is one attempt Ive seen posted by @Biz-Ukraine-Mag

Is this the long-looked for Russian 'culmination' in the Donbas. Maybe, but its hard to say as Russian offensive actions seem so poorly coordinated. They might indeed throw together a new batch of poorly trained scratch units, or Wagner might tempt some more prisoners from...

...Russian jails, and the offensive will renew. Regardless it seems to be going nowhere. The Russians probably would be wiser to culminate, but wisdom doesnt seem to govern how they operate.

Its important to put the lack of Russian forward movement in perspective. They are putting in a sub-World War I offensive performance. Indeed, compared to movement on the Eastern Front in WWI, the Russians now fare very poorly.

Both the Russian and Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary) were able to move the line far more in WWI in the east than the Russians have been able to do with the vast bulk of their military force in the Donbas.

Turning to the South (Kherson/Crimea) the action seems very different. This is the week that Russian ranged fire in the Kherson front seemed to fail under the pressure put on by Ukrainian logistics attacks.

This is the Firms map for an entire week from August 20 backwards. Compare it to a week the month before (when fields were clearly burning from summer harvests). The difference in the area of fighting is extraordinary. Like the lights have been switched off.

The Ukrainians for a few weeks have methodically targeted Russian depots and transportation (bridges and railways). What they are doing is emulating what the British and Americans tried to do before D-Day in 1944--destroy German communications in France.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1560324331330310145?s=20&t=coLFTSTp_9adH7AOmqhEcA

The Allies put a great deal of effort into making it impossible for the Germans to supply their troops in France in 1944. They destroyed basically every major bridge and railway yard they could, in a terrible way

Next time you visit the Loire or Seine, for instance, try to find a working railway bridge built before 1944. You wont. What you will see is all the earlier ones are just foundation stumps, if they survive at all.

btw, if you want to read a very short description of this transportation campaign against German logistics, here is a link. maxwell.af.mil/News/Display/A…

So what the Ukrainians are doing is trying to set up the conditions for a victory in the Kherson region by doing something similar. Make it impossible for the Russians to move supplies and reinforcements in the region.

This is extremely ambitious by Ukraine, and helps put their attacks on depots and rail lines in Crimea in context. They are trying to degrade Russian communications for between 150-200 miles behind the line.

The FIRMS data this week is pretty solid sign its working. Russian ability to maintain combat operations in Kherson is weakening. Ukrainians are being completely open on this. They are disrupting Russian forces and logistics, not launching mass attacks.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1559862531090440193?s=20&t=coLFTSTp_9adH7AOmqhEcA

The question is time, of course. It took the Allies months before they believed that they had shut down German communications in France in 1944. Ukraine cant rush and do this. The infrastructure needs to be destroyed, then the effect of the loss of mobility needs to be felt.

We are now in that stage. Dont want to guess about how long it will take.