Thread by @MarkGaleotti

Now that the FSB is claiming #Dugina was killed by a Ukrainian who fled to Estonia, it is interesting to note how often the Kremlin seems not to appreciate the dangers in trying to explain reverses away by, frankly, incompetence. A short thread 1/

Consider the supply depots blowing up because, allegedly, of an incautious cigarette. OK, I get the desire to deny that Ukraine can accurately and effectively target these hubs, but it means embracing a notion that incompetents set them up and other incompetents manned them 2/

Now, we have the claim that a Ukrainian with a 12-year-old in tow carried out the attack, trailing Dugina in a mini with multiple number plates, then insouciantly headed for the Estonian border and passed through without any hitch 3/

Who knows, maybe it's true, but it also would suggest a pretty major failure on the past of the MVD/FSB. I think this is a major Kremlin blind spot, to fail to appreciate how its evolving narrative is actually painting it as incompetent (as it often is, it has to be said) 4/

This is, after all, central to the nationalist critique of Putin's - that for all his macho managerialism, be is actually a poor champion of Russian interests, irresolute, corrupt and incompetent. How many less rabid types may also be feeling this, as they wonder... 5/

...If they might be next to be targeted? Fear can be a useful tool of the state - but not if people don't think the state can also offer security. Sure, blaming Kyiv is easy and we'll no doubt see some retaliation on Wednesday (Ukraine's Independence Day), but in the long term 6/

I suspect this will be more corrosive for the Kremlin's myth of competence and narrative of victory. 7/end