Share this page!

Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture
Twitter logo
Aug 23 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Many people really like the idea of the apocalypse, especially an end-of-times resulting from our own actions that can only be avoided through some repentance

I welcome pointers to literature on this seemingly basic human instinct

Why do we love the apocalypse?
Kellow 2020 The Lure of the Apocalypse
quadrant.org.au/magazine/2020/…
Lambelet 2021
"Amid the cascade of environmental crises we are living through, apocalyptic practices of renunciation of the world offer a guide and discipline for living in the end"
doi.org/10.1177%2F0953…
Skrimshire 2013
Climate change and apocalyptic faith
doi.org/10.1002/wcc.264

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦

Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RogerPielkeJr

Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 24
🧵
One of the confusing things about extreme event return periods is that they change, sometimes dramatically, when an extreme event occurs

That's because return periods beyond the period of record are based on a curve fit to observed data based on statistical assumptions
Here is a nice figure from the @ObservatoryHK showing how just a single rainfall event turns a 100mm rainfall in one our from a 1 in 50 year event to a one in 34 year event Image
Consider Dallas this week
DFW Airport record a 24-hour rainfall of 9.19 inches
yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/08/wettes…

Accord to NOAA Atlas 14 we can be 90% confident that prior to the event, it was somewhere between a 25-yr and 1000+ yr event hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds… ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 24
I don't think you an point any area of knowledge where consensus assessments, peer-reviewed literature & official data are so systematically ignored as extreme weather
A decade ago Steve Rayner (RIP) wrote about the "social construction of ignorance" - about the steps we collectively take to blot out or ignore knowledge that is dissonant or uncomfortable

Extreme weather is a canonical case study

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
I am among the most published & cited experts on extreme weather yet . . .

Perhaps due to that I have been attacked by the White House, investigated by Congress, target of a billionaire's smear campaign & comprehensively ignored by the climate media
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-hounding…
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 21
Great new explorer from @OurWorldInData @MaxCRoser of the SSP scenarios of the IPCC
ourworldindata.org/explorers/ipcc…

In one graph you can see an Achille's Heel of the SSPs: Every baseline scenario assumes more coal in 2100 than today
Just look at the difference between the most used scenario in climate research and IPCC assessment reports - SSP5-8.5

and

The scenario most consistent with history & near-term projections - SSP2-3.4

Not a small difference!

Source, Pielke et al. 2022: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…
Much climate research & policy, as well as media coverage is centered on the implausible SSP5-8.5 rather than the plausible SSP2-3.4

That creates a huge bias in how we come to understand climate

See Pielke and Richie 2021 to understand how we got here: issues.org/climate-change…
Read 5 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 20
A 🧵

Occasionally I’m asked, why do you seek to correct misleading science on issues that are important and popular?

After all, such correctives might help the bad guys

The answer:
The more important and popular an issue, the higher the stakes for getting science right
Here is an example hat won’t be controversial

Many of us have families affected by Alzheimer’s

It’s devastating
Research for a cure is important and popular
No one would excuse flawed research because of this

Flawe Alzheimer’s research should be identified & corrected ⤵️
But what if it’s obscure fish research?

It’s not like someone will die or therapies will be ineffective if someone performs dodgy fish research, right?

Maybe we should be a bit more lenient?

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/fish-and-foul
Read 7 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 18
Now free to read:

Global decarbonization: How are we doing?

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/global-decar…
Here is the TL;DR Image
And the size of the net-zero challenge in one figure Image
Read 4 tweets
Roger Pielke Jr.🇺🇦 Profile picture
Aug 17
Back in 1998 we first discovered that La Niña years saw far more hurricane damage than El Niño or neutral years

We recently updated that analysis in figure below

Despite the slow start to this year's hurricane season, it remains early days

Read more: rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med… Image
It is true that hurricane season to date has been a dud, but have a look at this cumulative activity graph via @CSUAtmosSci @philklotzbach

The real action typical starts at end of Aug and goes until end of Oct

Buckle up

Source: tropical.atmos.colostate.edu Image
These and more fascinating data on US hurricanes here:
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/what-the-med…
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(