While some of us are gathered here and online for #NWAS22, I wanted to kick off a conversation about how we use purple aka magenta aka fuchsia, especially in short-fuse weather warning graphics.
I'm concerned we're backing ourselves into a corner we don't want to be in.
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More than a few presentations so far this week have included images or video clips of tornado warnings or other short-fuse events (e.g. TOR or FF emergencies) using purple (or fuchsia or magenta, but I'll stick with purple for simplicity) as the outline or fill color.
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This is a marked changed from 10-15 years ago, when there was near-universal agreement on how we displayed tornado warnings: A bright, in your face, attention-grabbing red color. And that was for good reason: Red means stop, this is important, this is dangerous, etc.
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In some cases, we've backed ourselves into something of a corner with the advent of tornado emergencies (in many ways a "super tornado warning") as well as tags to allow us to differentiate warnings where the tornado has been confirmed. How do you show that?
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Some now use purple for these cases, and others have gone to using purple for all tornado warnings (as well as some others alerts like extreme wind).
But we've got a problem - we've got research showing people don't see purple as bad or worse than red.
Uh oh.
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For example, Blink et al. found people made more errors interpreting a graphic whose scale included purple than those interpreting graphics that stuck to yellow/orange/red. The purple group also took longer to process and interpret, even when they got it right.
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Ernst et al. (2021) found that only 11% of respondents — eleven percent! — could correctly order a five-color scheme with green, yellow, orange, red, and purple, with the vast majority not putting purple in the highest slot.
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In a talk-aloud study, where Sutton and Fischer (2021) asked folks to talk through their thoughts as they looked at colors, folks told them purple just doesn't seem like a big deal — and certainly not "worse than red".
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In other words, we are trying to use purple to communicate more urgency than red, but that message is not getting across to our users. It's not their fault! Intuitively (in the west, anyway) red is the high end of the spectrum.
There's no such thing as a purple stoplight.
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And that's the corner we've painted ourselves into. We used to use red for the worst thing, but now we've got "worser" things we need to communicate to people.
We can't simply pick another color - even if we ourselves might like it and how it looks.
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So, what do we do?
We need to back off using purple as a "worse than red" color, especially in short-fuse warning situations. Folks simply don't intuitively make that connection.
Stick with red but enhance it somehow - blink, shimmer, textures, etc. to help it stand out.
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If we must use purple — and I suggest we shouldn't for all the reasons above and more — we need to acknowledge, accept, and follow through in the burden of educating our end users on what that means, being aware that we are fighting against the stream.
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I'm not at all mad or trying to throw shade at anyone who's used purple in these situations. We're all trying our best to communicate life-saving messages to our viewers/followers/users, and we're all learning as we go.
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However, thanks to ongoing efforts to integrate social science with meteorology, we not only have research about color that's on point, it's research that's actually been done in our field. Wow! We should rely on it and let it help guide how we work going forward.
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If you're around #NWAS22 this week (or you're on Twitter and following this conversation) and want to chat, I'd love to discuss this further with you, especially if you have other ideas on how we can use colors to communicate urgent, life-threatening situations.
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@NWSDirector - Shift to probabilistic @Wxmanms1 - Climate chg; decisions at various timescales @AlanSealls - Effective comm, serving the underserved @CommDocPA - Evolving role of fcstr; vuln pops @WxComm - Bombardment of info/data
One problem where soc sci and met should work together?
GE: Defining impacts using data
KG: Getting out into comms & tailoring outreach
SJ: Partnering with folks who contact underserved comms
AG: Being intentional about gaps to get equal results
AS: Messaging
Example of where met & soc sci work together successfully?
AS: Panels like this, collab on surveys, etc.
AG: Co-creation in examples like HWT
SJ: Service assessments
GE: OU Wx & Soc survey, Vuln. Tool,
KG: That this conversation is happening at all!
Now that I’m back home from Tulsa, I wanted to reflect for a moment on #nwas21, which was, to the best of my knowledge, the first open meeting in the weather enterprise with an in-person component in a year and a half.
TL;DR So much pride. So much gratitude.
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Over the last year, we’ve been watching COVID trends like everyone else. Two months ago, it looked like we’d have been able to have had a pretty large in-person meeting, potentially without many restrictions.
Then the variant-that-shall-not-be-named reared its ugly head.
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For the last few weeks, @JaniceBunting and I were talking daily, sharing stats, reviewing guidance, and so forth. That lead to more conversations with folks in Tulsa on case rates, hospitalization figures, and guidance from civic leaders.
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Hey, everyone - couple of quick thoughts about the severe threat around these parts.
Not much to say that hasn’t already been said - Storms are likely early tomorrow morning through midday. Can’t rule out something squirrelly overnight, too.
Bottom line: It’ll be active.
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Biggest threat will be damaging winds. Even what would normally be a garden-variety shower will be able to tap into winds and bring them to the surface.
Storms could also develop tornadoes, and unfortunately, the potential is for them to be strong.
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Even so, this event is one where you should treat severe thunderstorm warnings like you would a tornado warning. The stronger storms will be able to produce winds stronger than a weak tornado.
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Another day, another couple of totally expected track wobbles. Minor and not shifting impacts all that much.
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Florence is HUGE. Put the eye in Columbia SC and the cloud shield would darken the skies from Manteo to Murphy. Plenty of wind in there, but that’s not the main story!
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Yes, 40+ mph winds extend some 200 mikes from the center. And yes, the storm weakened in terms of wind.
But that’s not what Florence will go down in the record books for, friends. The winds will play second fiddle to the water - both storm surge and inland flooding.
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If you look at the NHC forecast, you’ll notice that the track has shifted to the east a couple dozen miles or so.
Don’t celebrate.
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The track has shifted, yes.
Here’s the thing: We knew this would happen.
And if history is any guide, it will shift again. And it could just as easily shift back toward the SW as it could shift toward the NE.
In fact, a 3-day NHC forecast has an average error of 120 mi.
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What’s concerning - and something the NHC has mentioned in their last discussions - is that the model spread has actually gotten looser the last couple of cycles.
As @gbfishel said at 10pm, we know less about where #Florence is going now than this time yesterday.
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