While some of us are gathered here and online for #NWAS22, I wanted to kick off a conversation about how we use purple aka magenta aka fuchsia, especially in short-fuse weather warning graphics.

I'm concerned we're backing ourselves into a corner we don't want to be in.

1/ More than a few presentations so far this week have included images or video clips of tornado warnings or other short-fuse events (e.g. TOR or FF emergencies) using purple (or fuchsia or magenta, but I'll stick with purple for simplicity) as the outline or fill color.

2/

Biggest challenge next 5-10 years?

@NWSDirector - Shift to probabilistic
@Wxmanms1 - Climate chg; decisions at various timescales
@AlanSealls - Effective comm, serving the underserved
@CommDocPA - Evolving role of fcstr; vuln pops
@WxComm - Bombardment of info/data

#NWAS22 One problem where soc sci and met should work together?

GE: Defining impacts using data
KG: Getting out into comms & tailoring outreach
SJ: Partnering with folks who contact underserved comms
AG: Being intentional about gaps to get equal results
AS: Messaging

#nwas22

Today’s #nwas22 keynote is “How to Weather the Weather” with our own @JaniceHuff4ny and @mikerawlins! #nwas22

Now that I’m back home from Tulsa, I wanted to reflect for a moment on #nwas21, which was, to the best of my knowledge, the first open meeting in the weather enterprise with an in-person component in a year and a half.

TL;DR So much pride. So much gratitude.

1/ Over the last year, we’ve been watching COVID trends like everyone else. Two months ago, it looked like we’d have been able to have had a pretty large in-person meeting, potentially without many restrictions.

Then the variant-that-shall-not-be-named reared its ugly head.

2/

Hey, everyone - couple of quick thoughts about the severe threat around these parts.

Not much to say that hasn’t already been said - Storms are likely early tomorrow morning through midday. Can’t rule out something squirrelly overnight, too.

Bottom line: It’ll be active.

1/ Biggest threat will be damaging winds. Even what would normally be a garden-variety shower will be able to tap into winds and bring them to the surface.

Storms could also develop tornadoes, and unfortunately, the potential is for them to be strong.

2/

Another day, another couple of totally expected track wobbles. Minor and not shifting impacts all that much.

1/ Florence is HUGE. Put the eye in Columbia SC and the cloud shield would darken the skies from Manteo to Murphy. Plenty of wind in there, but that’s not the main story!

2/

Late Monday thoughts about #Florence.

If you look at the NHC forecast, you’ll notice that the track has shifted to the east a couple dozen miles or so.

Don’t celebrate.

1/ The track has shifted, yes.

Here’s the thing: We knew this would happen.

And if history is any guide, it will shift again. And it could just as easily shift back toward the SW as it could shift toward the NE.

In fact, a 3-day NHC forecast has an average error of 120 mi.

2/

So, it's Friday afternoon, and #Florence is a little closer to shore. A few thoughts, if I may. 1/ The latest model runs — and more importantly, the broader-scale pattern they are picking up on — suggest the odds of a landfall mid-late next week are going up.

But where?

2/