Russia shelled Kharkiv a half dozen times today, including hitting the Shevchenkivskyi district three times. Russia is firing rockets into the city tonight. There is also heavy shelling along the line of contact, where Ukrainian artillery engage in successful counter-battery fire
Izyum and Siversk areas:
There is heavy fighting in the Bakhmut and Donetsk areas.
Russia attacked Yakovlivka (1), Soledar (2), Bakhmutske (3), and Bakhmut (4).
In Soledar, the fighting is between the quarry and the Belokamenske plant (marked in gray).
In Bakhmut, I reported a while back that Russia withdrew around one kilometer from their positions, and today I learned they fought their way back forward. I noted this on the map (the area with the outline).
I could not find updates on Yakovlivka or Bakhmutske.
South of Bakhmut, Russia is trying to reach Zaitseve (5,6). Ukrainian defenders have resisted these attempts and destroyed Russian recon teams (7).
Russia is attacking Kodema from multiple angles (8,9) without success.
Russia is trying to push through the well-defended rough ground in hopes of one day reaching Kurdyumivka (10). They have made little if any, progress.
Russia is pushing towards Mayorsk, a fortified train station, to flank the defenders (11). They have to move through multiple fortified tree lines to reach the station.
Around Donetsk, Russia attacked Krasnohorivka. I found a video of Russians fighting near train tracks, so I assume they are attacking from the north, where they have a foothold near the train tracks (12).
Russians are attacking the Ukrainian defensive positions around the airport (13). This area is dangerous to assault, and Russia will likely take many casualties. Ukraine built fortified positions out of mounds of dirt called anthills, which Russia must fight through on foot.
Russia is attacking Pervomaiske (14) and in the direction of Nevelske (15). I could not find evidence of progress. I received confirmation that Ukraine still controls areas of Pisky, contrary to Russian propaganda.
Russia is trying to drive Ukrainian defenders away from their stronghold north of Lozove by attacking from the west of Staromykhailivke (16).
There is ongoing fighting in Marinka (17) and Novomykhailivka (18). In Marinka, Russians claim to control over 75% of the town. Maybe this is true. I think my map is roughly accurate, so you can gauge on your own what percent you think they control. I would say maybe two-thirds.
South of Donetsk, Russia is keen on pushing Ukrainian defenders out of their strongholds along the Kashlahach River, and today they attacked Zolota Nyva (19). The attack failed.
Russia fired multiple rockets into Zaporizhzhia city tonight. People report seeing signal flares south of the city shortly before the rockets were fired. Which is odd.
In the Kherson/Mykolaiv area, Russian sources claim Ukraine attacked and tried to capture Vysokopillya (20). Whether this is true or not, I don’t know. I assume the town is a gray area.
Russians claimed to have pushed Ukrainian forces out of Blahodatrivka (21) and Andriivka (22). I reported that Ukraine attacked Blahodativka this weekend, but I did not know they took control of the town, even in part. However, this Russian claim seems to imply that they did.
I do not see any confirmation that Ukraine withdrew from Andriivka.
Russia captured Blahodatne and is now pushing north to attack Partyzanske (23). Ukraine has a strong natural defensive position along the… canal? I think it is a canal.
Russians attacked north of Oleksandrivka, with unknown results (24).
Beyond this, Ukrainian forces destroyed several Russian ammo depots today, and several command posts. Tonight and tomorrow we expect large missile and rocket strikes all over Ukraine, as Russia opts to lean on terrorism rather than well trained soldiers.
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.