Sempolinski takes a 600-vote lead in #NY23 and #NY19 is down to 6k, or just 52.8% to 47.2%.
Sempolinski wins.
Bad result for Republicans tonight, folks.
Look at South Florida. Look at New York.
It's hard to draw big conclusions off of races like this. But without a doubt, they're underperforming Donald Trump.
Without Donald Trump directly involved in elections, it doesn't appear Republicans are able to bring voters to the polls in the numbers needed.
That's more than obvious at this point. Without him, turnout is weak and "traditional" candidates suffer narrative defeats.
Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell kinda remind me of obnoxious and overly arrogant teenagers who think they no longer need Daddy anymore (Donald Trump).
But every single time they try to venture on their own, the world kicks their @$$ and they run home begging for help.
Folks, for the love of God, just stop arguing.
GE in NY-19 bring out 300k (last time more) voters. MAGA surges have literally been good for 45-80 percent gains.
Even if Molinaro pulls it out, and he can, it is NOT the performance McCarthy thought/promised.
Look at NY23 in '18.
That's absolutely true and I do advocate for apples to apples comparisons with districts, not POTUS margins.
Over the last year, Democrats have been more likely than Republicans to tell us they'd vote for "Someone else" in hypothetical matchups against Donald Trump.
Liz Cheney got only about 10% of the Republican vote in her home state.
How badly would she do nationally? Much worse.
It's essentially a reverse of the mistake Republicans made after 2016 just assuming that Gary Johnson hurt Donald Trump more than Hillary Clinton.
When polling in 2020, us and just about everyone knew that was a net Biden bloc.
Folks, @RepLizCheney / @Liz_Cheney, in one of the most delusional acts ever showcased by a politician, compared herself to Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant in a speech delivered after losing an election by 30 points (current).
Whatever recent drugs are for delusional idiots, well, that's what they need to give her.
This is not the behavior of someone in touch with reality and no amount of favorable coverage can cover for this illness.
If, next year, I ran as a REP in a Trump +50 district and LOST, but then started comparing myself to Lincoln and Grant in a sad a$$ attempt to tee up a presidential run, I'd hope Laura would commit my a$$ and take me off the table.
The example that most closely resembles what is happening now is 2014. The election “models” and polls have been underestimating GOP support each cycle, but 2014 is the last midterm in which predictive indicators clearly favored the GOP.
Those “models” were touting how Democrats were still favored to hold the U.S. Senate all through September, with one rating Kansas as Leans Orman/IND even though GOP incumbent Pat Roberts won easily.
Couched in fundraising terms, these ratings were based just on bad polling.
There are many other examples, to include “models” even refusing to lean Arkansas to @SenTomCotton until the very last minute when it was clear for months that Mark Pryor was done.
House justifications are even worse. Waves sweep candidates with less money right into office.
The winner of the Alaska Special Election for the U.S. House race will not be known for at least two weeks. All ballots must be counted BEFORE ranked choice tabulation. The division can accept ballots mailed from overseas voters until 8/31.
Democrat Mary Peltola will lead early.
If the top vote-getter for the U.S. House race earns < 50% of the vote, ranked choice tabulation w/ computer software. Last-place candidate is eliminated and THEIR second-place votes redistributed to other candidates.The division expects to certify election results on Sept. 2.
FYI @Duarte4Congress is going to lose #CA13. He served his purpose for @GOPLeader to stop America First @DavidGiglioCA and, after futile begging, DG's Hispanic support has now gone to @AdamGrayCA, to include his GOP support.
I'd absolutely vote for @AdamGrayCA and have no qualms about being honest or public about it.
I just disagree with him on certain things. But I'd rather him than someone running to kill entire populations of shrimp and erasing $ MILLIONS of Clean Water Act violations.