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Gray Connolly Profile picture
@GrayConnolly
Aug 24, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
A brave rebuff to the #DragonBear here Image
"Russia has earned more than enough from President Vladimir Putin’s energy war on the West to cover the cost of the Ukraine invasion, researchers said yesterday."
#DragonBear but also RUS-India ties are very strong Image
In his opening remarks Xi urged Russia to “assume the role of great powers and play a guiding role to inject stability and positive energy into a world rocked by social turmoil”. #DragonBear

smh.com.au/world/asia/put…
As Russian & Chinese leaderships meet in Samarkand to solidify #DragonBear - a useful map showing just how many geopolitical problems simultaneously exist in which Russian forces are fighting (Ukraine & Syria) or Russian interests clash with Western interests. It is not 1985 etc. Image
Very interesting @SohrabAhmari piece on Hungary's view of Russia & how Europe has hurt itself: “Europe isn’t the stronger actor when it comes to energy. And so the sanctions aren’t working.” #DragonBear

compactmag.com/article/orban-…

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More from @GrayConnolly

Gray Connolly Profile picture
Nov 25
Social media bill is another very poorly drafted law from the very same people who drafted the Voice constitutional alteration (which failed) & the Misinformation/Disinformation bill (which was withdrawn). Sheer lunacy for the Coalition to support the social media bill #Auspol
One of many problems we have with our Parliament in 2024 is its membership is simply not across how modern economies & communications work - you do not have to be any expert but you do need some lay understanding. One saw this in the Misinformation/Disinformation bill #Auspol
As a matter of public law - which binds everyone & should be as simple to follow as law can - the social media bill has ridiculous complexity & carve-outs ... and it is unreal to legislate on social media access separate from AI & exposure to its knowledge & also 'fakes' #Auspol
Read 5 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Sep 7
I am finally watching the @martyrmade / Tucker discussion on Churchill. I am not sure who among the critics have actually watched it. As I dislike Twitter pile-ons, I think everyone should watch what X says before X is put in the tumbril. My response as a Churchillian below.
Firstly, it astounds me (and no doubt many in the old Empire) why Americans in 2024 are so invested in the British Empire in the 1930s when the Americans of the 1939-1941 period wanted no part of WW2 & the US had to be bombed into WW2 & it was the Nazis who declared war on the US
Secondly, there is very little Darryl says that was not said earlier by many Revisionist historians of the same period, esp British ones wondering why they went through two continental wars that cost them their vast seaborne empire - cf Alan Clark, John Charmley, AJP Taylor etal
Read 25 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
May 8
US delaying arms & munitions to Israel is all about domestic US politics - US allies especially in the Middle East see Biden Admin wiling to dirk *even Israel* here means Egypt, Jordan, Gulf Kingdoms etal start to reevaluate relying on the US vs an Iranian arc with PRC/RUS ‘help’ Image
Rightly or wrongly, the US' allies seeing that if the Biden WH will cut *even Israel* adrift on arms and munitions supplies in a war after a massive terrorist attack, that their alliance with the US, too, operates purely at the whim of domestic US politics ... Obama's 3rd term Image
A global military alliance of intelligence support & arms sharing (going to standardisation of kit & calibres etc) is only sustainable, ultimately, to the degree that allies trust in the support of each other, esp when the going is hard... no one respects disloyalty esp enemies
Read 4 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Feb 8
Putting Tucker to one side here .... weirdest part of Putin's villain role in the contemporary Western mind (admittedly an historically illiterate mind] is that if Putin dropped dead tomorrow, his successor would follow the same policies, probably more aggressively.
In July 2018, I wrote this piece, "The Sources Of Russian Conduct", on my blog, in an effort to put "The Russians" in some context for that part of the lay Western readership that was not totally brain damaged by America's internal convulsions

strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/07/source…
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Reality is that the West will never be close to Russia - we will have bouts of accomodation & OK times - but we also have many friction points. But we will need a modus vivendi with Russia in space, Arctic, and esp as Russia spans 11 time zones & Eurasian landmass Image
Read 5 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Dec 12, 2023
I am shocked - shocked I tell you - that the same people who were (catastrophically) wrong about Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, etal, have now been proven wrong about the war in Ukraine ....


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The auguries of genius statecraft Image
The true classic of the genre Image
Read 5 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Jun 23, 2023
Twitter trying to work out whether Prigozhin is "for real" this time or whether he is a character from the Cyrillic production of Turkey's 2016 'not quite a coup' ... or an Ernst Rohm or Lin Biao...regardless a lesson taught in these regimes is to never overrate your usefulness.
A key change in how RUS state fought the UKR war over past 6-10 months was to move slowly from 'war on the cheap' (Luhansk/Donetk militias & Wagner) to mobilising Russian reserves + bringing in more of the regular Russian armed forces hence extensive prep for UKR offensive
On any view, Wagner in 2022 filled gaps the RUS state wanted filled-it provided combat power ivo Soledar & Bakhmut in late 2022/early 2023. At same time, regular RUS units were being filled out & commencing the sappering & digging in for the very slow UKR offensive we see now.
Read 16 tweets

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