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Rich Baris
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Aug 25 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Let me let you in on a little secret...

Nate Silver is full of $#!t.

Only a few months ago, he tweeted the forgiveness of student loans would ensure "President Ron DeSantis" B/C it was not "transactional".

Think I'm kidding?

See Twitter Advance Search.
In fact, I'm willing to invest a modest amount of time myself in order to show you just how full of shit Nate Silver really and truly is.

There's the image. And there's the link.

Remember when he stormed off to walk his poodle Phee Phee over FL in 2020?
twitter.com/search?q=stude…
So, we went from limited relief being "unclear" and universal only will "max the chance for President DeSantis to have a filibuster-proof majority in 2025" to this super smart plan being "a very transactional piece of public policy, directly serving in the interest" of D voters.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Rich Baris
Aug 24
Sempolinski takes a 600-vote lead in #NY23 and #NY19 is down to 6k, or just 52.8% to 47.2%.
Sempolinski wins.
Bad result for Republicans tonight, folks.

Look at South Florida. Look at New York.

It's hard to draw big conclusions off of races like this. But without a doubt, they're underperforming Donald Trump.
Read 8 tweets
Rich Baris
Aug 18
Look @bennyjohnson! What did we talk about yesterday? How predictable.

Truth Bomb: Liz Cheney is more likely to take votes from the Democratic nominee than Donald Trump.
Over the last year, Democrats have been more likely than Republicans to tell us they'd vote for "Someone else" in hypothetical matchups against Donald Trump.

Liz Cheney got only about 10% of the Republican vote in her home state.

How badly would she do nationally? Much worse.
It's essentially a reverse of the mistake Republicans made after 2016 just assuming that Gary Johnson hurt Donald Trump more than Hillary Clinton.

When polling in 2020, us and just about everyone knew that was a net Biden bloc.

They were not Ross Perot-like.

Neither is Cheney.
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
Aug 17
Folks, @RepLizCheney / @Liz_Cheney, in one of the most delusional acts ever showcased by a politician, compared herself to Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant in a speech delivered after losing an election by 30 points (current).

What a fucking delusional idiot.
Not kidding. Someone should medicate @RepLizCheney / @Liz_Cheney.

Whatever recent drugs are for delusional idiots, well, that's what they need to give her.

This is not the behavior of someone in touch with reality and no amount of favorable coverage can cover for this illness.
If, next year, I ran as a REP in a Trump +50 district and LOST, but then started comparing myself to Lincoln and Grant in a sad a$$ attempt to tee up a presidential run, I'd hope Laura would commit my a$$ and take me off the table.

That was @RepLizCheney / @Liz_Cheney 2nite.
Read 5 tweets
Rich Baris
Aug 17
Trump-endorsed @harriethageman has defeated Trump-impeacher @RepLizCheney for the Wyoming At-Large Congressional District.
That was the fastest call we were able to make against a Trump impeacher all cycle.
In fact, Laura informs that was among the fastest calls we were able to make period this entire cycle.

Casper early vote went against @RepLizCheney HARD for @harriethageman, despite DEMs voting for the incumbent.

Margin will widen toward epic embarrassment.

Further...
Read 4 tweets
Rich Baris
Aug 15
The example that most closely resembles what is happening now is 2014. The election “models” and polls have been underestimating GOP support each cycle, but 2014 is the last midterm in which predictive indicators clearly favored the GOP.

Tillie never led Hagan. All Leaned D.
Those “models” were touting how Democrats were still favored to hold the U.S. Senate all through September, with one rating Kansas as Leans Orman/IND even though GOP incumbent Pat Roberts won easily.

Couched in fundraising terms, these ratings were based just on bad polling.
There are many other examples, to include “models” even refusing to lean Arkansas to @SenTomCotton until the very last minute when it was clear for months that Mark Pryor was done.

House justifications are even worse. Waves sweep candidates with less money right into office.
Read 6 tweets
Rich Baris
Aug 14
A great question that's not easy to answer for a few reasons.

1) Even if we had credible polls, Alaska was always a notoriously hard state to poll, even before polls got this terrible elsewhere, too.

2) Rank choice voting @lisamurkowski quietly supported, is very unpredictable.
The winner of the Alaska Special Election for the U.S. House race will not be known for at least two weeks. All ballots must be counted BEFORE ranked choice tabulation. The division can accept ballots mailed from overseas voters until 8/31.

Democrat Mary Peltola will lead early.
If the top vote-getter for the U.S. House race earns < 50% of the vote, ranked choice tabulation w/ computer software. Last-place candidate is eliminated and THEIR second-place votes redistributed to other candidates.The division expects to certify election results on Sept. 2.
Read 8 tweets

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