Thread by @JBelcourt73

Ok todays essay is half cautionary tale and half lesson on what it takes to do maneuver warfare on a large game changing scale inside of a high intensity conflict against a peer/near peer foe. The sentiment in this tweet is rather common.

https://twitter.com/CallItMedusa/status/1562635822649683968?s=20&t=uWaWIQu96EjMPGoZsv2XLg

Building an army and supporting military that can launch corps sized attacks and fight them deep across hundreds/thousands of square kilometers is an effort of years. The most basic building block the individual soldier needs weeks to become a soldier, weeks more of education

to reach a minimal level of skill at a military specialty. Months more to integrate as part of a crew or team. Then that crew/team needs months working with others at the small unit level before that small unit can start working as a slightly larger unit so on and so forth.

At each step up you add not only more but also dis-similar capabilities. A tank company that can move and shoot but does not know how to work with infantry, call for fire, read maps etc is less than effective. Just ask the Russians. They have been throwing green unready troops

into the jaws of Ukraine's defenses for months and it has got them almost nothing. In fact the losses in men, material, prestige, treasure, institutional memory and morale taken for the territory gained is worse than nothing. The Russian army is in steep likely terminal decline.

I don't want that to happen to the Ukrainians, I want them to win with a minimum of loss. Ukraine would need two things to build an army that could go back into time and slot into the allied forces that rolled into Kuwait and Iraq in 91 or Iraq in 03 1. TIME and 2. SPACE

The US and (NATO) allied troops that liberated Kuwait had spent the 1980's going through a massive modernization cycle, using that new kit intensively through massive training cycles conducted in areas that were safe from enemy attack. Ukraine is getting new kit but geared for a

different kind of fighting because she does not have the time or space to build up a tank army. In WWII, it took a minimum 2 years to turn a mob of civilians into a modern western army. The Soviets took 1.5 years (and took much higher losses as a result). This is as close to a

military maxim as there is. Success requires time and space to build the skill sets and kit needed at every level and in every specialty where you have to fight. From tanks and riflemen to supply clerks and admin roles that are not just the tail, but the bones of the operation.

Generals like @general_ben or @WarintheFuture write books on this stuff because they had to spend decades learning how to do it from others who had spent decades learning how to do it. Then of course, even if you do build such an army, what happens when it suddenly has to engage

in a different style of fighting? The Russians got close to Kiyv but got no farther. Part of this is the fact that urban areas are different beasts than open terrain. @SpencerGuard and @JaysonGeroux have written books on this and spoken about this on the @MriyaReport. A space

dedicated to helping @MriyaAid raise funds for Ukraine's defense by platforming experts, concerned citizens and most importantly Ukrainian voices. I hope one of them will correct me if my memory fails, but the US tried a hasty attack on an urban area and it did not go well and

they had to pull back (safe area) and spend the time to develop the skill sets and supply of kit to go back in do it right. This against a foe that did not have mass supplies of tanks, missiles and artillery. Liberating Ukraine can't wait years so now let us look at what Ukraine

can do. She has a big army that has a lot of combat vets to leaven out the muster of the population. With Western supplied artillery she can impose virtual encirclements on groups of Russian troops or make holding specific areas impossible in the medium to long term, she has

superior infantry that are better equipped, led and motivated than their foes. But, she also has the smaller air force, a tank force that is using tanks mostly famous for turret tossing, the smaller artillery park overall and several rivers between herself and victory. She has to

use the things she has on the (+) side of the ledger to win by beating the Russians and minimizing the impact of the things on the (-) side of the ledger have on her operations. This implies a need for a more methodical approach that uses bite and hold tactics to shape the battle

in ways that force the Russians to either withdraw or become cut off. Yes, this appears to be slower than a blitzkrieg style attack, but in the end I think it will be faster because as the Russians get popped like pimples in pockets created by this strategy they will eventually

end up in a situation where Ukraine can launch brigade sized thrusts to take bigger bites. Ukraine did a massive raid in 15 so she can do it once she can limit the intensity of any Russian response because victory is more than just liberation. Its liberation at the minimum cost

in sons and daughters. Ukraine is not Russia willing to spend lives for no purpose. It is part of what makes her a "western" nation. The citizen has value as a person with hopes and dreams not just as a cog in the machine. What can we do to help liberation arrive? Obviously, I

write @JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton and @RepFrenchHill every day encouraging them to keep supporting @POTUS and I encourage my readers to contact their leaders. We can also give to reputable charities like @MriyaAid, and promote Ukrainian voices in the spaces we inhabit to help

Ukraine gain supporters. There are several I follow like @Teoyaomiquu, @krides, @MrKovalenko, @ferlain, and many others. We can actively combat Russian dis-information and media/elite corruption. What #WeAreNAFO and the #Fellas are doing to dis-infect Twitter is going to be a

part of the victory story because good information undergirds the solid public support needed to keep western support flowing into Ukraine. Plus, the donations it drives help #feedthewolves of the @georgian_legion as they turn Russian invaders into sunflower food. @CallItMedusa

I hope this essay helps explain my thoughts on the subject. Until Ukraine wins on Ukraine's terms and ends the #GenocideOfUkrainians Slava Ukraini!
#RussiaIsATerroristState @mfa_russia <--- still losing no matter what the Duma says today.

@threadreaderapp unroll please