Thread by @MassDara

Thanks @OAJonsson — big Russian decree just dropped. To put this number into context— the Kremlin is authorizing adding an entire extra draft cycle’s worth of conscripts here— OR roughly half of their pre-war contractniki…(1/4)

https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/1562767909122109442

Given the refusals and KIA among contractniki and my ongoing suspicions about their spring draft intake — I wonder if this will mean a larger draft. If that’s what it means— and it’s too early to say— it would be a major walk back for the last 15-20years of personnel policy(2/4)

Conscripts are a major recruiting pool for contractniki so maybe it’s linked to a rebuild. Either way, they are not aiming for replenishment but an expansion with this decree. where will these people come from, a larger draft, muscular recruiting campaign or mobilization? (3/4)

Expansion like this is a move you make when strategic forecasts for the future inside the General Staff are gloomy, or you have a longer term conflict or project in mind (4/end).