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Aug 25 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Day 25/26. Here's what's happening with 24 hours to go of the #NPTRevCon. After the main committees failed produce agreed text last week (which was expected) small groups started to work on language on some key topics, like risk reduction, accountability, middle east, etc.
The first consolidated text came out this Monday. While negotiations on this text were going on in closed plenaries, a smaller group convened at the Finnish mission to take a stab at agreeing on disarmament and non-proliferation language.
Led by Finland, the group consisted of the five nuclear weapon states, the New Agenda Coalition states, Austria, Switzerland, Indonesia, Iran, Sweden, Japan, and Netherlands. (might be one more, so forgive me if I left someone out by accident).
Based on the work of this group and the work of the plenary, the President put out the official draft outcome document late last night (or actually, very early this morning). reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documen…
Plenary discussions on the draft outcome doc are ongoing today, and it's clear that quite a few states have serious concerns about the draft outcome. Here are the key issues (as far as I know, but everyone has a different take so I'm sure there are other views).
You-know-who or Ukraine might block it over how to describe the situation at Zaporizhzya & negative security assurances. China might block over the moratorium on fissile materials. France got emotional about the TPNW reference in the context of article 6 & says is a red line.
But there are more issues that are not agreed upon and could break consensus, lack of commitments on disarmament is still a big problem for many. Fukushima, AUKUS, nuclear sharing are still hotly contested and never rule out the Middle East!
What now? States are still commenting on the draft. Delegations will soon need to know what final version to send to capitals to get instructions for the adoption tomorrow. So there's probably a “final final” version tonight, which I think will be a take it or leave it version.
Then everyone waits for the responses from capitals. And tomorrow we'll see if the President puts it up for adoption, if he says "no consensus" and submits it as a President's summary/working paper, or if he pulls out some last minute plan B. Follow along for the drama tomorrow!

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More from @BeaFihn

Beatrice Fihn Profile picture
Aug 27
Of course Russia is responsible for blocking consensus at #NPTRevCon, but make no mistake, the outcome document was stripped of any meaningful commitments through a joint effort of nuclear armed states and their allies.
The document failed to condemn nuclear threats, and Russia watered down the commitment by NWS to not threaten non-nuclear weapon states to become empty and meaningless. This was of course done so Russia can keep threatening to use nuclear weapons as it wishes.
The document saw the deletion of the call for a moratorium on fissile materials. This was done by China, so it is able to increase its nuclear arsenals.
Read 8 tweets
Beatrice Fihn Profile picture
Jun 24
Ok, so I’ve kind of recovered from the MSP party last night so here’s a few thoughts about the key #TPNW1MSP outcomes & what it really means
1). This is the strongest condemnation of nuclear threats that have ever been done by a UN conference and it is without a doubt a response to Russia's nuclear threat.
It is a powerful and urgently needed message from a large group of very diverse states. The clear and shape condemnation of nuclear threats is at the center of the Vienna Declaration because it’s a response to the Russian nuclear threats.
Read 11 tweets
Beatrice Fihn Profile picture
Mar 22
In the last week, I’ve suddenly seen a lot of “well, the use tactical nuclear weapons wouldn’t be THAT bad” takes. And this comes even from “defense experts” in countries without nuclear weapons. Let me tell you why it would be that bad. 🧵
Yes, a tactical nuclear weapon is one of those “smaller” nuclear weapons. Unfortunately today’s nuclear weapons are so incredibly large and dangerous that we have a really distorted idea of what a small nuclear weapons is.
Let’s take an example of a random nuclear armed state, say **cough** RUSSIA. Russian tactical nuclear weapons have an estimated yield of between 10 to 100 kt. Sounds small? Well, the bomb over Hiroshima was 15kt and it killed 140’000 people by the end of 1945.
Read 9 tweets
Beatrice Fihn Profile picture
Mar 4
I saw someone say something along the lines of “using nuclear weapons would be a strategic misstep by Putin” This kind of rhetoric is so absurd on hear when watching devastating invasion of Ukraine & massive global anxiety about nuclear war.
It would be a war crime, unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe, cause irreversible human & environmental harm for decades & no help would come. Here’s what it actually means: (If you feel that you are not in a mindset where you can digest this information now, skip this thread)
When a nuclear bomb goes off, it starts with an intense flash of light, the brightest light most people have ever seen. Anyone looking directly at the detonation will be blinded. Then a flaming fireball of gas hotter than the sun appears. It takes 10 secs to reach its max size.
Read 9 tweets
Beatrice Fihn Profile picture
Feb 23
We have an exciting announcement today here at @nuclearban. We all know that academic & policy research on nuclear weapons is often dominated (and often funded) by supporters of nuclear weapons, and fails to reflect a diversity of perspectives from around the world.
That's why we will provide research grants on issues like nuclear disarmament, public opinion & nuclear weapons, humanitarian & environmental impacts of nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons intersectionality, climate change & nuclear weapons, & international law such as the #TPNW
Research grants will range from 5’000-10’000 CHF, is open to scholars with a range of education and experience and can cover different types of research and publication activities. Read more here: icanw.org/call_for_propo…
Read 5 tweets
Beatrice Fihn Profile picture
Nov 12, 2021
Civil society is being shut out from the NPT Review Conference in January. While the risk of nuclear weapons use is rising, the UN & the President of the NPT decide to exclude experts, scientists & survivors from these important multilateral nuclear weapons talks.
This is not surprising though. The pandemic has been used by many governments as an excuse to silence civil society and NGOs. It is unacceptable that the United Nations, the SG, governments and the President of the NPT Review Conference let it continue to happen.
Civil society participation is about democracy, transparency and accountability, something this is extra important when it comes to decisions on matters that literally could end our world as we know it. Without civil society present at the NPT RevCon, the outcome will suffer.
Read 5 tweets

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