🧵/ link in the last thread. I spoke with yet another soldier from 64th Motor Rifle Brigade. Petr Danilov is suspected by Ukraine of committing atrocities in Bucha. He claims he was not there and describes the scale of catastrophe the Russian army experienced near Kyiv.
Here’s the guy. He sent me his military ID and other docs proving he was dismissed from the army back in 2018 and never signed the contract again (he was fired for abuse of power and even prosecuted and got probation).
Here are his dismissal documents dated 2018 and his ID with matching entries about dismissal.
SBU and GUR (UA military intel) utilizing old personnel lists in nothing new, so let’s jump to the interesting part: his description of what happened with 64th brigade near Kyiv, based on his talks with his former colleagues (historical illustrative photo dated 2012)
Danilov still is in permanent contact with the people from the 64th brigade and he agreed to tell me their [grim] thoughts about this war.
Earlier we published an article about the combat losses of the 64th brigade. Danilov confirms that those losses are huge. He also says that the 64th brigade was even more understaffed than I was told by my previous interlocutor.
"Go, scare the people, everyone will scatter, then you’ll come back”, commanders told them. In fact, everything turned out differently. Ukraine showed character, the Armed Forces of Ukraine resisted and these expectations failed", – says Danilov.
"They expected the Crimea-2014 scenario. No assault tasks, just a quick march to Kyiv. It was wrong. Ukraine resisted and showed the will to fight back".
"I know my brigade and the people out there, they had no desire to "liberate someone from the Nazis", they didn’t know anything at all about the fact that they would have to "liberate" someone”, – says Petr Danilov.
He also says the remaining soldiers of his brigade are scared of 2 things: US MRLS systems and drones. "When Shoigu says that we don’t move quickly because we want to minimize collateral damage, it’s bullshit. Soldiers are exhausted and have no will for another offensive".
At the same time, Danilov is skeptical about the Ukrainian counter-offensive too. "We are still far ahead in artillery and ammo, and we know all Ukrainian positions and possible vectors of their counter-attacks well".
There’s more inside, so don’t hesitate to click and Google translate from Russian. "This war should be ended as soon as possible", says the guy. You may like or not what he says, but one should be very brave in Russia to speak openly on the matter. svoboda.org/a/tupo-net-sil…
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🧵A Russian diplomat, pressured to leave Brussels amid espionage allegations, has been nominated for a key role in the OSCE. Another 19 diplomats were expelled too, with open sources clearly showing their ties to Russian intelligence (and yes, they liked posting on Strava).
But first things first: meet Dmitry Iordanidi, a former deputy head of the @OSCE mission to Bosnia-Herzegovina with deep experience in the Balkans, who was nominated by Moscow to lead the organization’s mission to Serbia.
Russia also nominated Iordanidi to head an OSCE program office in Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, and for the same position in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana. I think that falls under the ‘flood the field’ tactic.
🧵/ link in the last post. Remember Bosnian Serb Davor Savičić, who recruited Serbs to fight in Ukraine? Using a leaked database of Russian WIAs, we found he’s a GRU colonel with personal tag V-0001 ('V' for 'Волки' – 'Wolves' – as his battalion was named after his callsign).
It's well known that both 'private' military companies where Savičić fought, 'Wagner' & ‘Redut,’ were overseen by GRU (GU GSH). Previous investigations found several GRU staffers there, but it was never revealed that Savičić is a GRU colonel himself
Savičić got a shrapnel wound to his right shoulder on June 17, 2022. At that time, Russian forces were attempting to attack Severodonetsk, while the UAF were counterattacking near Izyum. The exact location where Savičić was wounded remains unknown.
🧵With my colleagues, we analyzed the Russian Main Military Medical Directorate's database on 166,000 hospitalizations in Russian MoD facilities (Jan 2022–June 2024). It's incomplete but offers insights into the Russian army's dynamics. svoboda.org/a/tysyach-rane…
First things first: THIS DATABASE SHOULD NOT BE USED TO ESTIMATE TOTALS. It doesn't have those hospitalized to civilian hospitals, very limited number of wounded in 'DNR' and 'LNR' hospitals, etc. Thanks to @MassDara and @Mortis_Banned for their comments on the data we studied.
Also, A LOT of soldiers stay for a day or 2 in a field hospital before being sent back to front. They DO NOT MAKE IT TO THIS DATABASE.
🧵/ Link in the last post. How much information can one get from a single blurred-out police video with the help of OSINT? Let’s find out together. No BS – we're talking 'possible precursors to chemical weapons or nerve agents' here, destined for Russia and seized in Spain.
Back in October 2024, Spanish police reported the seizure of 13 tons of 'chemical products' in the port of Barcelona, destined for Russia. It was claimed to be the result of a two-year-long special operation. 4 people were arrested. interior.gob.es/opencms/gl/det…
The operation was named 'Probirka' ('test tube' in Russian) and was carried out together with the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) as part of the enforcement of EU sanctions against Russia. anti-fraud.ec.europa.eu/media-corner/n…
🧵Timur Praliev, arresred in the U.S. for illegally crossing the border from Mexico, received an official 'combat veteran ID' as a 'former Wagner fighter' less than a month ago, as we found together with @Mike_Eckel and @CarlSchreck.
A photo of Praliev receiving his veteran ID was posted on VK on Dec. 12th. The event took place in Bashkortostan: . We found Praliev's empty VK acc., which lists the same YOB as in the U.S. court docs (1993), and one of his friends confirmed that it is him.archive.is/jYw10
What puzzles me most about this story is the timing. On December 12th, Praliev receives his official Russian veteran ID as a 'former Wagner fighter.' By January 10th, Praliev is arrested with a drone in his backpack after crossing into the United States from Mexico. Insanely fast
1/2 Comparison of Dec. 5 and Dec. 10 HR @Planet satellite images of the Russian airbase in Al-Jufra, Libya, shows an Il-76 loading/unloading, as well as newly appeared objects which I hesitate to ID (maybe radars?)