“Ukraine’s gross domestic product will fall by as much as half this year. Its budget deficit is $5bn a month and, by the end of 2022, foreign donors will have spent at least $27bn paying the salaries of Ukrainian public sector workers and soldiers” on.ft.com/3wxxw6Y
‘Without the port of Odesa, it made no difference that Kryviy Rih was safe, well-fortified and his steel plant was still standing with his workforce intact. “Without the port, there is no metal industry in Ukraine,” he says. “We have done everything that we could.”…’
“The cost to Ukraine’s economy of the physical destruction from Russia’s missiles and artillery is about $130bn, the Kyiv School of Economics estimated in June, with $26bn in damaged business infrastructure.” on.ft.com/3wxxw6Y
Ukraine is literally moving factories west. “Bit by bit, its 650 employees are now taking apart machines that weigh as much as 30 tons, putting the parts on the back of trucks & reassembling them in an abandoned industrial building 1,500km to the west on the border with Poland.”
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"Three journalists from Finland's largest daily [@hsfi] are expected to appear in a Helsinki court on Thursday, suspected of publishing classified defence intelligence in an unprecedented case for the Nordic country renowned for its press freedom." reuters.com/world/europe/f…
"Two journalists at Helsingin Sanomat, and their former editor, who all deny any wrongdoing, may face a prison sentence of between four months and four years if found guilty of revealing national defence secrets in a report published in 2017." reuters.com/world/europe/f…
'The 2017 investigative report by Helsingin Sanomat...revealed the rough location and tasks of an intelligence unit of the defence forces at a time when Parliament was debating whether to expand its powers to monitor private data in digital networks.' reuters.com/world/europe/f…
In this week's Economist, @azania_patel & I write on how Russia & Ukraine are both trying to re-grow their armies after a brutal six months of war. Russia is scraping together volunteer battalions. But Ukraine might have a medium-term advantage in manpower economist.com/europe/2022/08…
Western officials say that more than half of Russia's brigades and regiments in Ukraine are now at less than 60% of their original manpower and equipment, making them technically “combat ineffective” for their original missions. Some are in dire shape. economist.com/europe/2022/08…
90% of the Ukrainian recruits being trained in Britain have no previous military experience. They're being taught basics—marksmanship, movement, medical care—with emphasis on urban warfare. Next week, the EU will discuss another possible training mission. economist.com/europe/2022/08…
“The Economist’s analysis of data from a wide variety of sources suggests that Russia’s economy is doing better than even the most upbeat forecasts predicted, as sales of hydrocarbons have fuelled a record current-account surplus” economist.com/finance-and-ec…
"An index of service-sector growth..shows a smaller hit than during previous crises. Electricity consumption seems to be growing again, after an initial decline. The number of railway loadings, a proxy for goods demand, is holding up...inflation is easing" economist.com/finance-and-ec…
"Sanctions have had a limited impact on Russian oil output, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency. Since the invasion Russia has sold in the region of $85bn-worth of fossil fuels to the EU" economist.com/finance-and-ec…
“the head of Zelensky’s admin., Andriy Yermak, looked down at his ringing cellphone... He heard the gravelly voice of Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin deputy chief of staff… Kozak said it was time for the Ukrainians to surrender.
Yermak swore at Kozak & hung up” washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
“When it came to tank power, however, only one mechanized brigade, the 72nd, was available to defend [Kyiv]—clearly insufficient for such a large city. As a fix, Syrsky … ordered all the military education centers to create special makeshift battalions” washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
So impotent when judging assessments of the time. “The Ukrainians largely kept their preparations to themselves. A senior U.S. defense official said Washington knew more about Russia’s plan to invade than about Ukraine’s plan for defense, fueling doubts about how Kyiv would fare”
All in all, it’s been a rotten few months for Russian spies & illegals. “Albanian Defense Ministry said on Saturday two of its soldiers were injured while trying to stop two Russians & one Ukrainian … trying to enter a military plant in central Albania.” reuters.com/world/europe/a…
Albania expelled two Russian diplomats in 2018 (suspected intel officers) and one in January 2021 (for covid violations). Russia has already had half its undeclared intel officers in European missions expelled this year. This seems like a good way to get going on the other half.
"Extensive polls conducted for the FSB show that large segments of Ukraine’s population were prepared to resist Russian encroachment, and that any expectation that Russian forces would be greeted as liberators was unfounded" washingtonpost.com/world/interact…
"In 2019, the FSB began a major expansion of its Ukraine unit ... Arriving officers were assigned territories in Ukraine and tasked with developing lists of collaborators to work with, as well as adversaries to neutralize." washingtonpost.com/world/interact…
Ukrainian spies got it wrong, too. '...“We relayed all the information that the Americans [Burns & co] had shared without any changes,” said a [Ukr] participant. But ... “our information said that the Russians are not planning war” on such a large scale' washingtonpost.com/world/interact…