The Kharkiv area had lots of shelling and minor fighting along the front lines.
In the Izyum area, Russia attacked in the direction of Karnaukhivka from Petropillya (1). They made no progress and returned to their original positions. Russians claim there is fighting in the outskirts of Kopyanky, which suggests a Ukrainian attack (2).
The Siversk area had lots of shelling.
The fighting in Soledar was primarily in the east (3). Ukraine is heavily shelling the Knauf Gips plant. The concentration of fire suggests Russia has not moved much in the past 17 days. Maybe one or two blocks at most.
There is ongoing fighting in Bakhmutske (4).
Russia is attacking Bakhmut (5). I marked the three primary Ukrainian fortified positions with the blue gatehouse icons.
There is ongoing fighting in Kodema (6). Russia has not made any progress.
Ukraine repelled a Russian attack in the direction of Nevelske (7). There is ongoing fighting in Marinka (8).
Zaporizhzhia is home to many artillery duels and a whole lot of shelling. The region had three significant explosions. From left to right: Novobohdanivka (Russian HQ), Chernhivka, and Verkhnii Tokmak Pershyi.
Locals noted that Russia lost equipment in Chernhivka and Verkhnii Tokmak Pershyi and say Russians withdrew some equipment in the aftermath. Ukrainian partisans identified the targets and relayed them to Ukrainian forces.
In Berdyansk, Oleksandr Kolesnikov, a Russian collaborator, was assassinated by a car bomb. Russians were quick to call this a terrorist attack but had no comment about what happened to Ihor Poznyanskyi.
Poznyanskyi is a Russian collaborator from Pidlyman in Kharkiv oblast. He has not been seen or heard from since the Russians put a bag over his head, put him in the back of a vehicle, and drove away.
Speaking of terrorism, Russian artillery shelled Kamyanka, a town under their occupation in Zaporizhzhia, from Vershyna, around 20km to the east. The shelling destroyed several buildings.
In the Kherson/Mykolaiv area, Russian forces have moved a few kilometers toward Pervomaiske from Blahodatne (9). I do not think Russia has a realistic chance of capturing Pervomaiske, but apparently, they might be interested in trying.
Today, Ukraine hit the Antonovskyi Bridge (A) and the Kakhovka bridge (B) with HIMARS. Many Russians died on the Kahovka bridge in this attack. Both bridges are now impassable, although Russia will continue attempts to repair them.
Ukraine also declared fire control over the Darivka bridge (C).
Tonight, Ukraine flew drones into Novoozern and Sevastopol. They may have flown more drones in the time it took to write this. Ukraine appears to be mapping Russia's air defense network and its response times in preparation for future attacks.
I feel weird posting this, but people have asked me to. If you find my work useful and you want to give a tip, here is a link. If you don't want to, no big deal. I will keep posting as often as I do either way. checkout.stripe.com/pay/cs_live_a1…
I want to start by saying I don’t have access to official documents or meetings, so I’m piecing together their motivations based on what I observe and logical reasoning. Keep that in mind as you read on.
This year, Russia's goals are threefold. First, to capture the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Second, to capture Kostyantynivka. Third, to capture Slovyansk.
Each of these goals has necessary steps. To capture the bank in Zaporizhzhia, you must first capture Orikhiv. To capture Slovyansk, you must first capture Lyman. You could argue that to capture Kostyantynivka, you must first capture Chasiv Yar.
These goals are very ambitious and, honestly, impossible to fully achieve. So let’s think of them as aspirations and focus instead on how close Russia might get to reaching them.
Ukraine launched several counterattacks in the Verbove and Ternove areas of Zaporizhzhia. They were quite successful, pushing Russia out of several settlements and possibly capturing some. This also threatened Russia’s main supply route to the west. Because of this, Russia has to do two things: divert resources from their main attack to stabilize the area and try to recapture this ground to keep pushing west toward Orikhiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine gains time to strengthen defenses, plan their strategy, and prepare for more counterattacks, something Russia worries about given their timeline.
This has already delayed Russia’s offensive by months, and it will take many more weeks for them to regain their previous position.
Recently, Russia tried an armored assault on Orikhiv, which failed badly (A). They also tried to advance through Mala Tokmachka (B) before, but that failed too. A direct attack on Orikhiv is unlikely to succeed without heavy losses, so Russia wants to avoid it unless they have no choice. Still, based on past experience, they might end up having to take the town this way.
The military analysis of Iran has been the absolute worst military analysis I have ever seen in my entire life.
There have been times where I listen to some "expert" where almost every word they say in the entire interview is factually wrong. Some of these people are so wrong that I feel like you could have a big box of words and reach in and draw them randomly and it be more factual.
To prove my point, I just asked a LLM to analyze the form of a normal military interview on cable news and using strictly randomly generated words and no access to the actual news please give me a report on what's going on in Ian (unironically, this is what LLMs are good at, probably, just lying about shit):::
From an operational standpoint, the expanding American strike corridor may complicate Iran’s layered coastal defenses, which could scatter missile batteries inland.
At the tactical level, the Iranian drone screen might disrupt a forward U.S. maneuver package, which could stall momentum along the maritime axis.
From the broader battlefield geometry, the concentrated American carrier posture may pressure Iran’s southern command network, which could trigger rapid repositioning of defensive units.
Right now on the ground, the reinforced Iranian coastal belt might absorb the initial U.S. probing attacks, which could slow the opening phase of the campaign.
The main thing that any educated person needs to keep in mind at all times is that realpolitik is fake and everyone who believes in it is typically universally wrong on every single word they ever say.
It is especially funny because realpolitik people are almost never experts in any domain, and they get their info from aggregators. And those aggregators know the realpolitik people use them, and as such present info in a way most likely to influence the realpolitik.
They end up just being unwitting amplifiers of misinformation.
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.