lhsingapura Profile picture
Aug 27 7 tweets 5 min read
@hilton_ctwh Singapore has created a virtuous cycle in regional security, where the SAF is seen as a partner, by the TNI.

The larger scale of Super Garuda Shield with the US, & extended participation of partners, like Australia, Japan & Singapore, is a “calculated decision” by Jakarta.
@hilton_ctwh The hostile bilateral relationship between Taipei & Beijing has created a security dilemma or vicious cycle in great power relations that alarms Jakarta & her close partners (at #supergarudashield); which is expressed clearly by the Australian Foreign minister below.
@hilton_ctwh As Senator Wong said: “Australia does not want to see any unilateral change to the status quo...”

Likewise Australia, Japan, Indonesia & Singapore have no desire to rock the boat & create a vicious cycle. To hedge it’s risks, Japan is building ties with Singapore & others.
@hilton_ctwh Below, Defence Australia at its best — hedging its security risks by drawing in the Germans, the Koreans & the Japanese closer (as 1st time at #PitchBlack22). The RAAF also enjoys the active support of allies & partners, like the USAF, RAF, Armée de l'air, IAF, TNI AU & RSAF.
@hilton_ctwh Unlike Taiwan, the RSAF team just visited LM’s F-35 facility in Fort Worth, to receive briefs on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) by the USAF. Thanks to these JSF briefs, the RSAF gained an understanding of the capabilities of the F-35 JSF & their employment in ops scenarios. ImageImage
@hilton_ctwh Unlike Taiwan, with the F-35B, the RSAF is not only more resilient to runway denial, via missile & bomb attacks, it’s 4 sister services are fluent at multi-domain coalition Ops, as the navy’s participation in #RIMPAC2022 & Ex Garuda Shield 2022 demonstrate.

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More from @lhsingapura

Aug 27
@hilton_ctwh If any hot war erupts in North East Asia (eg. over Taiwan), it is likely that non-aligned Indonesia & Singapore, will seek security guarantees from Australia, Japan & the U.S. before we will consider acting (like those obtained by Finland & Sweden).

amp.france24.com/en/live-news/2…
@hilton_ctwh I believe that if armed conflict erupts between Beijing & Taipei, Tokyo will seek to position itself, as Poland has done over Ukraine. There will be a demand for a security umbrella but only the most relevant & capable will be invited to shelter under it.
@hilton_ctwh In the unlikely event of armed conflict, I believe that the G7 & EU will make all the right noises — the goal will be to deter the spread of fighting to Japan & the average Taiwanese conscript will be shivering in the trenches — while Taiwanese civilians hide in bomb shelters.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 25
@LyleJMorris 1. This is not a theory — it is known that tiny Taiwanese guard posts on islands close to China, are not equipped with any capability to intercept civilian drones.
@LyleJMorris 2. On 25 Aug 2022, a news article notes tt Taiwan reservists are unprepared: "Our job is really just to die on the battlefield… So, it's enough for us to know how to fire a gun," Peter Yang said, adding how reservists were given only 12 bullets for each shooting practice.
@LyleJMorris 3. Conflict feels like a distant reality for Henry Cheng. He said: "I'm definitely not ready (for war)… 4 months to me is more like going there to play." He added, "I'd probably die very quickly. I'll face it when it comes."

straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/n…
Read 12 tweets
Aug 19
@LaineJoakim @ArdvarkMaster @USNATO @NATO 1. @ArdvarkMaster is deliberately misusing data to advance a point of view (aka lying). He pretends to wrongly compare Venezuela’s military capabilities to that of Finland.

2. He is very wrong or he is deliberately misinterpreted Singapore’s need to be a maritime protector.
@LaineJoakim @ArdvarkMaster @USNATO @NATO 3. Finland’s investments in military capability is terrain specific & the METT-TC of its army takes into a/c the geopolitical circumstance of the country (eg.a friendly Sweden).

4. Singapore has a vastly different threat matrix in South East Asia.
@LaineJoakim @ArdvarkMaster @USNATO @NATO 5. By right, M’sia should have friendly relations w Singapore, as both as FPDA members. But due to their domestic politics (aka Malay Supremacy as an ideology), they engage in grey zone acts of hostility, from time to time.

6. The SAF maintains an overmatch capability…
Read 12 tweets
Aug 16
TNI & SAF stronger, together.

Speeches from Lt-Gen. Melvyn Ong & Gen. Andika Perkasa at the dinner reception (in Singapore), for the Combined Annual Report Meeting - Indonesia Singapore High Level Committee meeting.

The meetings under the CARM-INDOSIN HLC include the following:

1.The TNI-SAF Annual Staff Meeting (TSASM)

2.Indonesia-Singapore Joint Intelligence Committee (ISJIC)

3.Indonesia-Singapore Joint Operations and Exercises Committee (ISJOEC)
4. Indonesia-Singapore Joint Education & Specific Program Committee (ISJESPC)

5. Indonesia-Singapore Joint Logistics Committee (ISJLC)

6. Indonesia-Singapore Joint Working Group (ISJWG)

7. Services working groups
Read 9 tweets
Aug 13
While Campbell is correct tt China overreacted to Pelosi’s visit, Americans need to understand tt these actions are intended to:

(i) deter any Taiwanese attempt at independence; &

(ii) shift blame for the inevitable deterioration of Sino-American relations to the Americans.
Thucydides' Trap is a term used by Graham T. Allison to describe a tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a int’l hegemon.

The Pelosi visit has opened the door of Thucydides' Trap. Not sure if there is wisdom to avoid it.
Unlike the G7, a significant number of G20 nations like Indonesia, Saudi Arabia & India have viable relationships with China that they value. Not only do they show no intention to bandwagon with the ‘liberal west’, they gain prestige by exercising their independence.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 12
As the nature of documents seized by the FBI from Mar-a-Lago emerges (see excellent thread by @rgoodlaw), the GOP politicians who defend or support Trump’s false narrative will look like scumbags.
While the of agenda of the progressives in Washington is often harmful to American leadership in the Asia-Pacific, the refusal of GOP leaders to seek a cure this American partisan cancer called Donald Trump is even more harmful to American prestige — American scumbags at work.
American political dysfunction is endemic & their partisan politics whose goal is mutual malevolence bore me.

IMHO, the GOP should, at various times, listen to the 4th estate explaining the harm done to America by Trump’s telling lies to agitate for domestic conflict.
Read 6 tweets

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