Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Aug 27, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Let's take a step back, and review what's happened in recent months:

- Trump steals nation's secrets, lies about it to FBI. Historic security breach.

- Trump's CFO pleads guilty to 15 felonies.

- Trump takes the fifth 440 times in an investigation into his crooked finances.
- Jan 6th investigations establish Trump led a massive illegal conspiracy, involving hundreds of GOP officials incl Sens Graham and Johnson, which sought to overturn an American election and unleashed a violent attack on Congress as part of its strategy.
- The Trump family took $2b from the Saudi government, and launched a new business venture with them here in the US.

- The Supreme Court goes on an extremist field day, ending Roe, legalizing coercive prayer, weakening common sense guns laws.
- States pass medieval abortion restrictions, creating a public health crisis in the United States.

- A leading Republican organization brings Putin's closest ally in Europe, Hungary's Orban, to US while we are fighting Putin in Ukraine.

- More mass shootings.
- Election deniers have won GOP primaries across the country. Some of them will get elected this fall.

- Liz Cheney lost her primary to an absolute fucking lunatic.

- Trump has encouraged violence against the FBI/DOJ and attacks have taken place.
It's been a tornado of malevolence and venality unlike anything we've seen in American history.

It's why this election matters so much. Voters must reject what the GOP has become or it will get worse.

Things are moving our way but we cannot let up.

And there is growing evidence that all this criminality, awfulness and extremism - MAGA - is causing the GOP itself to crack, splinter and meltdown in the closing days of the election.

Praise f---ing be.

Thanks to the insights of readers one more example of recent MAGA malevolence:

- We learned just how much Barr corruptly whitewashed Mueller's findings on Trump's rancid relationship w/Putin; little doubt now Barr's betrayal of US natl interest among worst in US history.
W/knowledge now of Putin's attack on Ukraine/West, this historic natl security breach and Trump's ongoing attacks on our democracy, Barr/McConnell's efforts to bury Mueller and Zelensky blackmailing will become known as among darkest acts in US history.

Another addition to the outrageous litany of criminality, extremism and illiberalism of MAGA in recent months:

- we've learned that the Trumpists' penetration of our physical voting systems was far greater than had been understood.

thebulwark.com/how-team-trump…

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More from @SimonWDC

Nov 21
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me.
I was accused of spreading medical misinformation and required to take an on-line course, which I did.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris

There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
9 of 10 forecasters went into E-D with Harris now ahead:

The more rigorous @washingtonpost battleground averages have Harris winning the election today.

The right may have invented data, maps, Polymarket voodoo showing Trump leading but in the real world Harris has outperformed him and is winning. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.

Released a video on this yesterday 👇2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-days-to-go…
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Nov 4
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.

Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit. Image
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.

The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.

Read 6 tweets
Oct 26
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.

Bottom line - we had a good week all.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 21
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…
Read 15 tweets

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