Good thread by Tom. I'm not sure how the 3rd Army Corps will be employed, but it is interesting for a few reasons. The big question is what comes after it deploys? This has been a Ru MoD focus for generating new forces. Will they try to replicate this? Can they replicate it?
It appears 3rd Army Corps failed to meet its manpower targets. As opposed to earlier in the war, the Russian MoD decided to actually give these volunteer units training and good equipment, but one month isn't sufficient and these units don't have well-trained officers and NCOs.2/
So they'll struggle to conduct combined-arms offensive operations well, though they may be used in this role, but they can help take some of the burden of defending Russian lines, which is increasingly important given the likelihood of a Ukrainian offensive. 3/
It is interesting that Russia established a Corps for these volunteer battalions, which indicates it wants to employ them together as part of an organic unit. This is in contrast to the Tigr battalion, which is subordinate to the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade. 4/
You would think it would make more sense to send these volunteer battalions to serve under the structure of existing regiments or brigades, instead of creating a new corps with its own leaders. It is interesting that Russia decided to do this. 5/
Russia offered pretty good financial benefits for volunteers for these units compared to average salaries. They have likely recruited those that need the money the most or are most supportive of the war, but will they be able to keep finding volunteers after this? 6/
Because Russia committed 80%+ of its ground forces at the beginning of the war, there wasn't a good Plan B if they ran into trouble. Most of the volunteers signed 3-6 month contracts, which will end soon. Manpower issues will get worse for Russia by the winter. 7/
Possibly, but the Soviet Army had a lot of officers waiting to lead units with mobilized reservists. The Russian Ground Forces deployed almost all of its officers to make up for personnel shortfalls in Feb-March. There aren't trained officers available. 8/
Igor Girkin says that not only did Ukraine strike targets behind the front lines with HIMARS in Kherson, but they are also reportedly struck the front lines and infantry, which would be a new development and a potential indicator of an offensive. t.me/strelkovii/3142
The RSOTM Chanel also says HIMARS are being employed heavily in Kakhovka and that Russian air defenses are active. 2/ t.me/rsotmdivision/…
Video of a Russian/DNR assault on the town of Kamyanka near Avdiivka. The first video shows DNR T-72B3 and T-72B tanks advancing with infantry and firing at the town filmed by a DJI UAV. It looks like they come under mortar fire towards the end. t.me/milinfolive/89…
This is reportedly a Ukrainian camera on top of the water tower. 2/
The official # for servicemen in the Russian military was previously more than 1 million but the actual size was ~850k. There is no easy way for Russia to increase its size at this point, other than simply declaring LDNR, Wagner, or volunteer units part of the Russian military.
It isn't as simple as drafting more soldiers. Russia has lost a lot of officers and NCOs, and conscript units particularly need to have competent officers and NCOs for them to function. Not to mention, Russia doesn't have the personnel to train more conscripts.
Conscripts still aren't supposed to be deployed into Ukraine unless they sign a contract. The conscripts who were deployed in the 1st week were sent back. Even if Russia increases the manpower of the military, that doesn't mean it will have more guys available to send to Ukraine.
I think the best explanation is that these attacks are being done by UAVs launched by Ukrainian SOF in Crimea. The fact that we've seen two UAV attacks in Sevastopol and Russian air defenses active many nights in Kerch, Sevastopol, and Yevpatoria also points to this explanation.
The reason people think ATACMS might be involved is because of the range from the front lines and the size of the craters at Saki Airbase. The other explanation is that Russia left bombs and other ammunition near the aircraft and UAVs targeted them. 2/
Even small UAVs with grenades or 82mm mortar rounds could be enough to detonate aviation bombs, which could lead to large craters. Ukraine had recent sat photos knowing where these bombs were located to target them. I think @Justin_Br0nk was right. 3/