Thread by @TUmarov

🇰🇿🇷🇺 Kazakhstan halts arms exports for a year. The Kazakh government did not give a reason for its decision. But Russian pro-gov telegram channels crow about this as if it's their achievement.

A mini thread about what is happening between Kazakhstan and Russia 🧵🔽

From the very beginning of the war in Ukraine Kazakhstan has avoided taking sides in the crisis while calling for its peaceful resolution.

But today many in Russia are regarding Kazakhstan’s actions as being unworthy of an ally. carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight…

Pro-Russian telegram channels actively claim that Kazakhstan exports arms and ammunition to Ukraine via proxies, by order from the UK.

The allegations are based on a supposedly leaked contract by which Kazakhstan allegedly exports Soviet weapons & ammunition to the UK

Kazakhstan officially rejected all allegations. On the sideline, 🇰🇿government started to closely cooperate with other countries.

🇰🇿boosted its relations with Türkiye to the level of expanded “strategic partnership" & has agreed to exchange military intelligence info w/ 🇹🇷

This (together w/ some other news about e.g. Tajikistan's drills w/ the US) sparked another wave of anger among Russian hawks.

This was the context of the meeting between Tokayev & Putin in Sochi.

The main message of Tokayev was that "there is no ground for making pessimistic forecasts regarding the future" of RUS-KZ relations.

Putin was friendly, but not talkative: "There are many questions..."

Kazakhstan (and other Central Asian states) do not know where are the red lines right now in relations with Russia. Before February 24th the limits were obvious but the war became a storm that wiped the clarity off.

The new redlines between Russia and Kazakhstan will not be set only by 🇷🇺 or 🇰🇿. It is a mutual process where both need each other. But after the war and its isolation 🇷🇺 needs 🇰🇿 more than ever before.

Kazakhstan embraces Russia's weak moment as an opportunity to enlarge its space for maneuvering in future cooperation/co-existing. That is why Kazakhstan is acting as boldly as it can and waits for Russia's reaction or indication of the new limits in the relationship.

The downside of this strategy is Russia's unpredictability. Many in Russia are already talking about the "denazification" of Kazakhstan.

However, Kazakhstan believes it has time while all of Russia's energy and resources are concentrated on the invasion of Ukraine.