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Although it may be obvious to many in Central Asia, it still needs to be emphasized: the view that portrays the region as someone’s ‘backyard’ is incorrect.
🇰🇬🇨🇳In 2022 trade between Kyrgyzstan and China exceeded the $15bn mark. This is +33% in the last 10 years.
The idea to set up "Yurts of Invincibility" belongs to Ukrainian MP Serhii Nagornyak (facebook.com/nagornyak.s/po…), the head of Verkhovna Rada's group for inter-parliamentary relations with Kazakhstan.
Moscow pays noticeably more attention to Central Asia. This year was the 3rd in which Putin visited all five nations (previously it was in 2000 when he just got elected & 2012 after the rokirovka), as @fran__olmos rightly noticed.https://twitter.com/fran__olmos/status/1601142792000253953
I might not be experienced enough, as Mr. @k_sonin claims. But I doubt that Sovietness of the speech tells us anything more than Rahmon being a living relict of the USSR. He's the last leader in CA who's clinging to power since then & it's obvious not to expect anth new from him.
The main goal for Russia in Central Asia amidst the war in Ukraine is to secure its position in Central Asia, not to lose the influence Moscow already has in the region. That's why Putin focused on:
From the very beginning of the war in Ukraine Kazakhstan has avoided taking sides in the crisis while calling for its peaceful resolution.
Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine many in Russia have regarded Kazakhstan’s actions as being unworthy of an ally. https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1519322911118700550
https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1508315563440934913
W/ a small population, Karakalpakstan is strategically important for Tashkent. The main gas pipelines pass through it, large oil&gas reserves are located there. Karakalpakstan is also the champion in the production of chemical products in Uzbekistan, more than 30%.
What happened in 🇰🇿?
https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1485587765572026368
China's presence in Central Asia will continue to rely on bilateral ties rather than institutions. As @nivayau points out, even during this event the leaders were not discussing regional cooperation. https://twitter.com/nivayau/status/1486322349171425284?s=20
Russia and Uzbekistan have been preparing this visit for a long time. It was postponed several times because of the COVID-19. But now when the situation w/ pandemic in Russia is worse than ever Mirziyoyev is still coming. This might mean that it's the virus that was the reason.
https://twitter.com/ReidStan/status/1453392207831093256
DISCLAIMER: As has been said many times by @EvanFeigenbaum & @SheenaGreitens, China is NOT building a military base in Tajikistan. This rather is a joint law enforcement facility of a police outpost. https://twitter.com/SheenaGreitens/status/1453461328526512133
(disclaimer) No one expected anything close to a breakthrough from this meeting. The goal was to get the Taliban to reaffirm its security commitments. https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1448967842003566593?s=20
Sept 14. Uzbekistan sends humanitarian aid to Afghanistan: foodstuffs, other essential goods, medicines, clothing & footwear, etc.
1/ Many are concerned that the region will be flooded w/ refugees, suffer a constant stream of terrorist attacks, & that the ruling regimes will be defeated by Islamists inspired by the victory of their Afghan counterparts.
Disclaimer: the audience of all speeches is inside the Central Asian countries, so the leaders do not tend to talk about foreign affairs a lot. But if they do, this means that it is important for internal affairs as well.
1/18: In October 2020, Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov was ousted and replaced by Sadyr Japarov, who managed to seize power, schedule elections & become the 6th president of Kyrgyzstan this month. carnegie.ru/commentary/830…
2/6 But it'll be difficult for him to complete his 5 term in entirety. It’s impossible to predict what difficulties may arise for the regime, and as he gets older, it will get harder for Rahmon to cling onto power.
2/9 First, to understand what's going on the ground there's a great zoom-event by @CarnegieEndow's @pstronski co-organized by @tahirmuh & @OxusSociety w/ awesome speakers @VeneraSagyn, @Ericamarat, @bektour, and @ADoolotkeldieva.