Temur Umarov 马铁木 Profile picture
Fellow @CarnegieRussia | Alumnus of the @CarnegieChina Young Ambassadors & the @CarnegieEndow Central Asian Futures programs
Jun 30, 2023 8 tweets 3 min read
In recent years, the mainstream narrative about Central Asia's geopolitical position came down to a simple take: "In its own backyard Russia is being replaced by China."

A🧵on why Central Asia is more than a 🇷🇺-CN chessboard
@AlexGabuev @ForeignAffairs

https://t.co/acSMguO6lpforeignaffairs.com/china/russia-l…
Although it may be obvious to many in Central Asia, it still needs to be emphasized: the view that portrays the region as someone’s ‘backyard’ is incorrect.

This isn't because some think it's offensive but because this idea limits analysis & leads to erroneous conclusions.

Jan 21, 2023 7 tweets 4 min read
Trade figures between 🇨🇳China and Central Asia hit a record high. In 2022 total turnover exceeds $70bn. customs.gov.cn

Here's % of growth in trade turnover in 2022vs2021:
🇰🇬Kyrgyzstan +105.6
🇹🇲Turkmenistan +52.0
🇹🇯Tajikistan +40.4
🇰🇿Kazakhstan +23.6
🇺🇿Uzbekistan +21.8 🇰🇬🇨🇳In 2022 trade between Kyrgyzstan and China exceeded the $15bn mark. This is +33% in the last 10 years.

(vs2021) Export from China to Kyrgyzstan grew by 106.7%; import grew by 2.4%

(vs2012) Export from China to Kyrgyzstan grew by 109%; import grew by 33%
Jan 13, 2023 10 tweets 6 min read
🇺🇦🇰🇿Kazakhstan set up 2 Yurts of Invincibility in Bucha & Kyiv, there are plans to set them up in other cities of Ukraine.

Russia is furious w/ another "stab in its back" from an ally. But Moscow doesn't understand that its aggression makes ties between the 🇺🇦🇰🇿 ppl stronger
🧵 The idea to set up "Yurts of Invincibility" belongs to Ukrainian MP Serhii Nagornyak (facebook.com/nagornyak.s/po…), the head of Verkhovna Rada's group for inter-parliamentary relations with Kazakhstan.

In 2021 Nagornyak came to the parliament in the colors of the flag of Kazakhstan
Dec 26, 2022 13 tweets 7 min read
The last event held by Putin in 2022 is the informal summit of the CIS leaders. Amidst talk of the impending end of Russia's influence in Central Asia, there's a record number of top-level meetings.

So what is happening: is Central Asia moving away from Russia, or ever closer?🧵 Moscow pays noticeably more attention to Central Asia. This year was the 3rd in which Putin visited all five nations (previously it was in 2000 when he just got elected & 2012 after the rokirovka), as @fran__olmos rightly noticed.

Oct 15, 2022 15 tweets 6 min read
Rahmon's emotional speech at 'RUS+CA' summit is interpreted as a step back to USSR. Many claims that by saying "don't treat us like USSR" Rahmon means "treat us like USSR but better"

I don't agree w/ these takes and here's why. 🧵on the future of RUS in CA Image I might not be experienced enough, as Mr. @k_sonin claims. But I doubt that Sovietness of the speech tells us anything more than Rahmon being a living relict of the USSR. He's the last leader in CA who's clinging to power since then & it's obvious not to expect anth new from him. Image
Oct 14, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Putin didn't mention Ukraine or the "conflict" at the Russia-Central Asia summit in Astana.
The reason is obvious: no Central Asian country would publicly support Moscow in its aggression. Receiving silence from its "allies" would have been a huge reputational blow for Putin. The main goal for Russia in Central Asia amidst the war in Ukraine is to secure its position in Central Asia, not to lose the influence Moscow already has in the region. That's why Putin focused on:
- trade & investment
- Afghanistan
- energy
- logistics
- integration
Sep 22, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
What does Putin’s partial military mobilization mean for Central Asian migrants in Russia?

A mini-thread 🧵 According to the official data, there are almost 7 mln migrants in Russia. More than 80% of them are from Central Asia. Most of them are young men. Image
Aug 28, 2022 10 tweets 3 min read
🇰🇿🇷🇺 Kazakhstan halts arms exports for a year. The Kazakh government did not give a reason for its decision. But Russian pro-gov telegram channels crow about this as if it's their achievement.

A mini thread about what is happening between Kazakhstan and Russia 🧵🔽 From the very beginning of the war in Ukraine Kazakhstan has avoided taking sides in the crisis while calling for its peaceful resolution.

But today many in Russia are regarding Kazakhstan’s actions as being unworthy of an ally. carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight…
Aug 10, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read
A hastily deleted post by 🇷🇺ex-president Dmitry Medvedev suggesting that after Ukraine, Moscow might turn its attention to the fate of Kazakhstan, was taken at face value by many.

Could Russia really enter into conflict with another of its neighbors? 🧵

carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight… Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine many in Russia have regarded Kazakhstan’s actions as being unworthy of an ally.

Example1:
Example2:
Jul 9, 2022 7 tweets 2 min read
🧵 Karakalpakstan in numbers:

(source: hook.report/2022/07/prezid…)

Karakalpakstan occupies more than a third of the territory of Uzbekistan, but w/ a population density of 11.7 people per square kilometer (in Tashkent it is 6,379). W/ a small population, Karakalpakstan is strategically important for Tashkent. The main gas pipelines pass through it, large oil&gas reserves are located there. Karakalpakstan is also the champion in the production of chemical products in Uzbekistan, more than 30%.
Jan 29, 2022 10 tweets 4 min read
🇰🇿 President Tokayev gave his first interview after the political crisis in Kazakhstan for @tvkhabar24


I watched the whole thing so you don't have to, here's the interview in a nutshell⬇️ What happened in 🇰🇿?

Tokayev:
- At first, it was peaceful protests. But after that came organized groups that had a plan of coup d'état
- The Almaty airport was taken under control to allow more terrorists from "one particular city in Central Asia" to come to 🇰🇿
Jan 27, 2022 7 tweets 5 min read
Xi Jinping for the first time chaired a summit with the 5 Central Asian states. The importance of such events is more symbolic than tangible, but they give us a hint about the trends that we'll see in future cooperation.

What are these trends? Image China's presence in Central Asia will continue to rely on bilateral ties rather than institutions. As @nivayau points out, even during this event the leaders were not discussing regional cooperation.

Institutions do not appear from nowhere, it takes time
Nov 10, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read
Soon (this month) Uzbekistan's President Savkat Mirziyoyev is to visit Russia. This might become a very important event in the modern history of the relationship between Moscow & Tashkent.

Here's why ⬇️ Russia and Uzbekistan have been preparing this visit for a long time. It was postponed several times because of the COVID-19. But now when the situation w/ pandemic in Russia is worse than ever Mirziyoyev is still coming. This might mean that it's the virus that was the reason.
Oct 28, 2021 10 tweets 7 min read
🇨🇳🇹🇯China will build its second paramilitary base in Tajikistan.

What does it mean for Central Asia?
🧵THREAD🧵
Image DISCLAIMER: As has been said many times by @EvanFeigenbaum & @SheenaGreitens, China is NOT building a military base in Tajikistan. This rather is a joint law enforcement facility of a police outpost.

Oct 20, 2021 13 tweets 7 min read
🇦🇫Today Russia held the 3rd session of consultations in the Moscow format that involve representatives of 10 countries of the region, as well as the Taliban.

What has been discussed? When Moscow is going to recognize the new 🇦🇫government?

I answer in this 🧵THREAD🧵 (disclaimer) No one expected anything close to a breakthrough from this meeting. The goal was to get the Taliban to reaffirm its security commitments.
Sep 28, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read
Besides speeches and promises, Uzbekistan has been taking actions in accordance w/ its policy towards Afghanistan. Here's what Tashkent has done for now.

⬇️THREAD⬇️ Sept 14. Uzbekistan sends humanitarian aid to Afghanistan: foodstuffs, other essential goods, medicines, clothing & footwear, etc.
gazeta.uz/ru/2021/09/14/…
Sep 3, 2021 12 tweets 7 min read
Do the Taliban pose a threat to stability in Central Asia?

carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/852…
⬇️THREAD⬇️ 1/ Many are concerned that the region will be flooded w/ refugees, suffer a constant stream of terrorist attacks, & that the ruling regimes will be defeated by Islamists inspired by the victory of their Afghan counterparts.

Much depends on the future actions of the Taliban, BUT
Sep 2, 2021 9 tweets 4 min read
All 5 presidents of Central Asian states have given speeches dedicated to the 30-years Independence anniversaries or the Knowledge Day.

🇦🇫What each of them has said about Afghanistan?

⬇️THREAD⬇️ Disclaimer: the audience of all speeches is inside the Central Asian countries, so the leaders do not tend to talk about foreign affairs a lot. But if they do, this means that it is important for internal affairs as well.
Jan 30, 2021 19 tweets 9 min read
China’s strategy vis-à-vis Central Asia’s elites is undergoing an under-appreciated change. Beijing is shifting from working exclusively w/ the region’s incumbent leaders to support for pro🇨🇳 politicians & even making efforts to bring them to power.
THREAD
carnegie.ru/commentary/837… 1/18: In October 2020, Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov was ousted and replaced by Sadyr Japarov, who managed to seize power, schedule elections & become the 6th president of Kyrgyzstan this month. carnegie.ru/commentary/830…
Oct 16, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
1/6 Emomali Rahmon managed to get reelected for yet another term without any mass protests or other hitches. The regime in Tajikistan has fused so closely w/ his extensive family that neither a new generation nor the Covid-19 pandemic can dent his power.

carnegie.ru/commentary/829… 2/6 But it'll be difficult for him to complete his 5 term in entirety. It’s impossible to predict what difficulties may arise for the regime, and as he gets older, it will get harder for Rahmon to cling onto power.
Oct 8, 2020 9 tweets 5 min read
1/9 Kyrgyzstan is facing the biggest political crisis in a decade. One of the differences in the current situation from the last 2 revolutions is the reluctance of external powers to get involved. What to expect from 🇨🇳&🇷🇺? @AlexGabuev & I explain it here: carnegie.ru/commentary/829… Image 2/9 First, to understand what's going on the ground there's a great zoom-event by @CarnegieEndow's @pstronski co-organized by @tahirmuh & @OxusSociety w/ awesome speakers @VeneraSagyn, @Ericamarat, @bektour, and @ADoolotkeldieva.