lhsingapura Profile picture
Aug 30 12 tweets 6 min read
1. Below, the magnificent Su-30MKI at the ‘walk’ phase of the crawl-walk-run stages of Ex. Pitch Black 2022, during Dissimilar Air Combat Training (DACT).

2. But there are some Indian misconceptions about how training is conducted, especially over its DACT with a RAAF Growler.
3. All of this, "my Indian Su-30MKI kicked your Growler's butt" is silly. A valuable part of this phase of #PitchBlack22 is watching how the other side operates, to learn what kind of tactics they use, including how they have been "modified" along with the weapons declared.
4. A 1 v 1 scenario of a MKI v a Growler is so constrained that it's not a viable situation in real life. In real life, Growlers are escorted by other fighters to perform their EW & SEAD role — to ensure a unfair fight.
5. Any Blue Force strike package in a coalition large force employment exercise directed by a E-7A, will see fighters like Su-30MKIs or F-35As employed in a DCA or OCA role to protect the EA-18Gs.
6. The Su-30MKI may be an excellent dog fighter but that’s not the preferred method for any OCA package from JASDF, USAF, USN, RAAF, ROKAF, or RSAF to engage red air. The modern air-air fight is at BVR ranges (with the AIM-260 starting to appear in numbers from FY2026).
7. For years, IAF Su-30MKIs have been engaged in DACT with RSAF F-16C/Ds, to get a better idea of Pakistani tactics. It’s no surprise that coalition pilots, featured below, are using the MKI to learn more about PLAAF (Shenyang J-11) & Russian (Sukhoi Su-30) tactics.
8. Likewise Singapore also needs CONOPS help from the US Marines, the RAF & the Aeronautica Militare (as fellow operators of the F-35B) — as we do not have prior STOVL aircraft ops experience. There should be no shame in learning to operate in a coalition more effectively.
9. MAJ Sivaraj (36), flew his F-15SG as an “enemy” against RAAF F-35As in a “very challenging scenario”, said his opponents handled it “very well”.
10. “Through this we can actually see how capable the F-35s are in their teamwork. The way the aircraft flies, how they target the adversaries & how they work together as a team was quite impressive to see,” MAJ Arumugam Sivaraj said as Red Air.
11. “Exercises like this just help us understand these aircraft in a large-force scenario, & that kind of knowledge will help us form and shape some (operational concepts) that we think we can employ subsequently,” COL Mark Tan (44), as RSAF’s exercise director said.
12. I am aware that air forces of small & medium powers (no matter how capable), need to operate as part of a coalition to have mass — the 1991 GWI is an eg. of American power & mass, when they help liberate a country (like Kuwait), from the naked aggression of Saddam’s Iraq.
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More from @lhsingapura

Aug 27
@hilton_ctwh If any hot war erupts in North East Asia (eg. over Taiwan), it is likely that non-aligned Indonesia & Singapore, will seek security guarantees from Australia, Japan & the U.S. before we will consider acting (like those obtained by Finland & Sweden).

amp.france24.com/en/live-news/2…
@hilton_ctwh I believe that if armed conflict erupts between Beijing & Taipei, Tokyo will seek to position itself, as Poland has done over Ukraine. There will be a demand for a security umbrella but only the most relevant & capable will be invited to shelter under it.
@hilton_ctwh In the unlikely event of armed conflict, I believe that the G7 & EU will make all the right noises — the goal will be to deter the spread of fighting to Japan & the average Taiwanese conscript will be shivering in the trenches — while Taiwanese civilians hide in bomb shelters.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 27
@hilton_ctwh Singapore has created a virtuous cycle in regional security, where the SAF is seen as a partner, by the TNI.

The larger scale of Super Garuda Shield with the US, & extended participation of partners, like Australia, Japan & Singapore, is a “calculated decision” by Jakarta.
@hilton_ctwh The hostile bilateral relationship between Taipei & Beijing has created a security dilemma or vicious cycle in great power relations that alarms Jakarta & her close partners (at #supergarudashield); which is expressed clearly by the Australian Foreign minister below.
@hilton_ctwh As Senator Wong said: “Australia does not want to see any unilateral change to the status quo...”

Likewise Australia, Japan, Indonesia & Singapore have no desire to rock the boat & create a vicious cycle. To hedge it’s risks, Japan is building ties with Singapore & others.
Read 7 tweets
Aug 25
@LyleJMorris 1. This is not a theory — it is known that tiny Taiwanese guard posts on islands close to China, are not equipped with any capability to intercept civilian drones.
@LyleJMorris 2. On 25 Aug 2022, a news article notes tt Taiwan reservists are unprepared: "Our job is really just to die on the battlefield… So, it's enough for us to know how to fire a gun," Peter Yang said, adding how reservists were given only 12 bullets for each shooting practice.
@LyleJMorris 3. Conflict feels like a distant reality for Henry Cheng. He said: "I'm definitely not ready (for war)… 4 months to me is more like going there to play." He added, "I'd probably die very quickly. I'll face it when it comes."

straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/n…
Read 12 tweets
Aug 19
@LaineJoakim @ArdvarkMaster @USNATO @NATO 1. @ArdvarkMaster is deliberately misusing data to advance a point of view (aka lying). He pretends to wrongly compare Venezuela’s military capabilities to that of Finland.

2. He is very wrong or he is deliberately misinterpreted Singapore’s need to be a maritime protector.
@LaineJoakim @ArdvarkMaster @USNATO @NATO 3. Finland’s investments in military capability is terrain specific & the METT-TC of its army takes into a/c the geopolitical circumstance of the country (eg.a friendly Sweden).

4. Singapore has a vastly different threat matrix in South East Asia.
@LaineJoakim @ArdvarkMaster @USNATO @NATO 5. By right, M’sia should have friendly relations w Singapore, as both as FPDA members. But due to their domestic politics (aka Malay Supremacy as an ideology), they engage in grey zone acts of hostility, from time to time.

6. The SAF maintains an overmatch capability…
Read 12 tweets
Aug 16
TNI & SAF stronger, together.

Speeches from Lt-Gen. Melvyn Ong & Gen. Andika Perkasa at the dinner reception (in Singapore), for the Combined Annual Report Meeting - Indonesia Singapore High Level Committee meeting.

The meetings under the CARM-INDOSIN HLC include the following:

1.The TNI-SAF Annual Staff Meeting (TSASM)

2.Indonesia-Singapore Joint Intelligence Committee (ISJIC)

3.Indonesia-Singapore Joint Operations and Exercises Committee (ISJOEC)
4. Indonesia-Singapore Joint Education & Specific Program Committee (ISJESPC)

5. Indonesia-Singapore Joint Logistics Committee (ISJLC)

6. Indonesia-Singapore Joint Working Group (ISJWG)

7. Services working groups
Read 9 tweets
Aug 13
While Campbell is correct tt China overreacted to Pelosi’s visit, Americans need to understand tt these actions are intended to:

(i) deter any Taiwanese attempt at independence; &

(ii) shift blame for the inevitable deterioration of Sino-American relations to the Americans.
Thucydides' Trap is a term used by Graham T. Allison to describe a tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a int’l hegemon.

The Pelosi visit has opened the door of Thucydides' Trap. Not sure if there is wisdom to avoid it.
Unlike the G7, a significant number of G20 nations like Indonesia, Saudi Arabia & India have viable relationships with China that they value. Not only do they show no intention to bandwagon with the ‘liberal west’, they gain prestige by exercising their independence.
Read 6 tweets

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