By launching the offensive Ukraine is speeding up the attrition of the Russian forces. The Russians will consume more ammunition, and faster, and they will also reveal their ammunition dumps as they rush supplies forward.
#KhersonOffensive
By taking the initiative Ukraine can also decide which Russian units to attack, and will likely chose those it has reason to believe are low on ammunition, or other vital supplies. Ukraine has the upper hand by being able to decide where the fighting will take place.
It's not hard to imagine how many grenades are needed in full combat. The ammo trucks have to work overtime to be able to keep the guns active. Once the ammo dries up the guns are just scrap metal.
There has been a lot of focus on ammunition but a battle tank consumes enormous amounts of fuel and will have to move a lot during active combat. That fuel also needs to be transported to the front. A tank without fuel is an easy target.
Apart from fuel and ammunition soldiers have a tendency to get hungry and thirsty, weapons and other equipment needs replacements, vehicles needs spare parts, injured soldiers are in need of care.
Now imagine you are in charge and need to distribute all that's needed for 20k Russian soldiers spread over a 150km long battlefield, during intense combat where every single truck can be hit by rocket artillery at any time. How long will you manage to supply the 20k soldiers?

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More from @andersostlund

Aug 31
This might be significant. The Kakhovskyi Bridge is the bridge on the dam in Nova Kakhovka. If "fire control" means Ukraine can reach it with traditional artillery it's an important development, because it's not only about the bridge but also the cross roads right next to it.
The roads just north of the dam connect the northern and southern sectors in the Russian occupied west bank of Kherson. If Ukraine can land artillery fire there it's another very important obstacle to overcome for the Russians. The northern sector would be very hard to supply. Image
They could reach it with HIMARS before but if they can use regular artillery they can shoot more and since the Dnipro is a dam north of Kakhovka it's hard to cross with supplies. Wonder how long the Russians in the north dare to stay?
Read 4 tweets
Aug 30
Expect appeasers and pro-Russian elements to scream louder and louder about the risk of nuclear war for each village Ukraine liberates in the coming days. The scare mongering is meant to stop western support to Ukraine, but Ukraine will never stop.
Russia's weapons against the West are threats of nuclear war and cutting the energy supply. Both threats are frequently used by Russia's support troops in the West; the appeasers, pro-Russians and others.
What the western appeasers forget is that there is a population in Ukraine, real people, Ukrainians, who also have a say in whats going on in their homeland. And they want to continue to fight and drive the Russians out, because they know they will get massacred if Russia stays.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 29
Reports saying that Ukraine has broken through the Russian lines near Kherson City is coming in. Lets consider the break through unconfirmed for now.
Don't forget the fog is heavy and news patchy.
Read 18 tweets
Aug 27
It appears to be a coordinated campaign now among some analysts and fringe politicians to push for "peace" with Russia at Ukraine's expense. Interesting that these suggestions are coming when Ukraine is about to take the initiative.
svd.se/a/Po6aXR/kaihk…
The piece above is written by @kaihko and Jan Willem Honig, whose main argument is that "Ukraine cannot win" because of Russia's nukes, authoritarian system, larger population etc and it should therefore prepare for a compromise where Russias interests are acknowledged.
@kaihko As so many other peace suggestions it fails to understand that Ukrainians are fighting for their very survival as a people, not only for territory, and Ukrainians see no other way out than fight or be destroyed as a nation. That's motivation for you.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 27
Belarusians need to clean their house before focusing on international travel. First and foremost Belarusians must stop the regime's hostile actions against Ukraine, second it must evict the Russians, third it must topple Lukashenka.
As much sympathy as I have for Belarusians it cannot be forgotten that 90 percent did not protest against Lukashenka in 2020 and there hasn't been enough resistance to the terror campaign against Ukraine that is staged from Belarus.
Ukrainians are massacred by the thousands, surely Belarusians should be willing to take some risk to pull Belarus out of the war against Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 26
Translated: "Germany will pretend to support Ukraine while planning for a Russian victory."
The German governments since reunification have all acted in Russia's best interest and haven't cared about peace and security in Europe. A combination of corruption, incompetence and chauvinism appears to dominate thinking in Berlin.
Hat trick for Germany now. Wrong side in the third major European war the last 120 years.
Read 5 tweets

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